• 제목/요약/키워드: Rare event system

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Rendezvous Mission to Apophis: IV. Investigation of the internal structure - A lesson from an analogical asteroid Itokawa

  • Jin, Sunho;Kim, Yaeji;Jo, Hangbin;Yang, Hongu;Kwon, Yuna G.;Ishiguro, Masateru;Jeong, Minsup;Moon, Hong-Kyu;Choi, Young-Jun;Kim, Myung-Jin
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.58.1-59
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    • 2021
  • Exploration of asteroids' internal structure is essential for understanding their evolutional history. It also provides a fundamental information about the history of coalescence and collision of the solar system. Among several models of the internal structures, the rubble-pile model, confirmed by the near-Earth asteroid (25143) Itokawa by Hayabusa mission [1], is now widely regarded as the most common to asteroids with size ranging from 200 m to 10 km [2]. On the contrary, monolithic and core-mantle structures are also possible for small asteroids [3]. It is, however, still challenging to look through the interior of a target object using remote-sensing devices. In this presentation, we introduce our ongoing research conducted at Seoul National and propose an idea to infer the internal structure of Apophis using available instruments. Itokawa's research provides an important benchmark for Apophis exploration because both asteroids have similar size and composition [4][5]. We have conducted research on Itokawa's evolution in terms of collision and space weathering. Space weathering is the surface alteration process caused by solar wind implantation and micrometeorite bombardment [6]. Meanwhile, resurfacing via a collision acts as a counter-process of space weathering by exposing fresh materials under the matured layer and lower the overall degree of space weathering. Therefore, the balance of these two processes determine the space weathering degrees of the asteroid. We focus on the impact evidence on the boulder surface and found that space weathering progresses in only 100-10,000 years and modifies the surface optical properties (Jin & Ishiguro, KAS 2020 Fall Meeting). It is important to note that the timescale is significantly shorter than the Itokawa's age, suggesting that the asteroid can be totally processed by space weathering. Accordingly, our result triggers a further discussion about why Itokawa indicates a moderately fresh spectrum (Sq-type denotes less matured than S-type). For example, Itokawa's smooth terrains show a weaker degree of space weathering than other S-type asteroids [7]. We conjecture that the global seismic shaking caused by collisions with >1 mm-sized interplanetary dust particles induces granular convection, which hinders the progression of space weathering [8]. Note that the efficiency of seismic wave propagation is strongly dependent on the internal structure of the asteroid. Finally, we consider possible approaches to investigate Apophis's internal structure. The first idea is studying the space weathering age, as conducted for Itokawa. If Apophis indicates a younger age, the internal structure would have more voids [9]. In addition, the 2029 close encounter with Earth provides a rare natural opportunity to witness the contrast between before and after the event. If the asteroid exhibits a slight change in shape and space weathering degree, one can determine the physical structure of the internal materials (e.g., rubble-pile monolithic, thick or thin regolith layer, the cohesion of the materials). We will also consider a possible science using a seismometer.

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일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究) (A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea)

  • 김용익;윤덕로;신영수
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

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국내, 외 광우병의 발생 현황과 대응 방안 (The current status and control measures of BSE in the worldwide)

  • 유한상
    • 한국환경농학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국환경농학회 2009년도 정기총회 및 국제심포지엄
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    • pp.273-282
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    • 2009
  • The transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) disease group are fatal neurodegenerative disorders affecting a wide range of hosts. The group includes kuru and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans, scrapie in sheep and goats and Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle. The exact nature of the infectious agent involved in the transmission of these diseases remains controversial. However, a central event in their pathogenesis is the accumulation in infected tissues of an abnormal form of a host-encoded protein, the prion protein (PrP). Whereas the normal cellular protein is fully sensitive to protease ($PrP^{sen}$), the disease-associated prion protein ($PrP^d$) is only partly degraded ($PrP^{res}$), its amino-terminal end being removed. BSE was first reported in the mid-80s in the UK. Ten years later, a new form of human prion disease, variant CJD (vCJD) developed in the wake of the BSE epidemic, and there is now strong scientific evidence that vCJD was initiated by the exposure of humans to BSE-infected tissues, thus indicating a zoonotic disease. However, the ban on the feeding of animal-derived proteins to ruminants, and the apparent lack of vertical transmission of BSE, have led to a decline in the incidence of the disease within cattle herd and therefore, an assumed decreased risk for human contacting vCJD. The origin of the original case(s) of BSE still remains an enigma even though three hypotheses have been raised. Hypotheses are i) sheep- or goat-derived scrapie-infected tissues included in meat and bone meal fed to cattle, ii) a previously undetected sporadic or genetic bovine TSE contaminating cattle feed or iii) originating from a human TSE through animal feed contaminated with human remains. A host cellular membrane protein ($PrP^C$), which is abundant in central nervous system tissue, appear to be conformationally altered in the diseased host into a prion protein ($PrP^{Sc}$). This $PrP^{Sc}$ is detergent insoluble and partially protease-resistant ($PrP^{res}$). The term $PrP^{res}$ is normally used to describe the protein detected after protease treatment, in techniques such as Western immunoblotting, and enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay using fresh/frozen tissue. Immunohistochemistry may performed with formalin-fixed tissues. Also, clinical signs of the BSE are one of the major diagnostic indicators. Recently, atypical forms (known as H- and L-type) of BSE have appeared in several European countries, Japan, Canada and the United States. An unusual case was also reported in a miniature zebu. The atypical BSE fall into two groups based on the relative molecular mass (Mm) of the unglycosylated $PrP^{res}$ band relative to that of classical BSE, one of the higher Mm (H-type) and the other lower (L-type). Both types have been detected worldwide as rare cases in older animals, at a low prevalence consistent with the possibility of sporadic forms of prion diseases in cattle. This raises the unwelcome possibility that vCJD could increase in the human population. Now, active surveillance program against BSE is going on in Korea. In regional veterinary service lab, ELISA is applied to screen the BSE in slaughter and confirmatory tests by Western immunoblotting and immunohistochemisty are carried out if there are positive or suspect in the screening test. Also, the ruminant feed ban is rigorously enforced. Removal of specified risk materials such as brain and spinal cord from cattle is mandatory process at slaughter to prevent the infected material from entering the human food chain.

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감마선 조사에 의한 뇌조직의 Jun 및 p53유전자 발현 (Expression of Jun and p53 Genes from the Brain of Rats Irradiated with $^{60}Co{\gamma}$-ray)

  • 김용석;우종규;이용성;고재경;전하정;이명자
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.265-279
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    • 1996
  • 방사선은 DNA손상을 초래하고 세포 성장에 관련된 유전자의 발현 조절 및 apoptosis등을 유발한다고 알려져 있으며 본 연구는 신경계에 있어 방사선 조사 후 종양 발생율과 시간 경과의 관계 및 조사 양과 암 발생의 관계를 구명하기 위해 코발트 60의 전신조사에 따른 흰쥐 뇌 조직의 생체 반응을 연구하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 상기조직의 jun 및 p53 유전자의 발현도를 1 Gy로 부터 100 Gy 범위의 감마선 용량별 및 1시간에서 6시간까지의 조사 훈 경과 시간 별로 Northern 분석하였다. Jun유전자 발현도는 ley이하에서 1시간 이내에 한계수준에 도달하였으며 30 Gy의 조사 1시간 째에 최대였다. 또한 조사 1시간 이후 1 Gy로부터 10 Gy 범위에서는 조사 5시간 및 6시간까지 점진적으로 증가되었으나 20 Gy로부터 100 Gy 범위에서는 조사 2시간까지 증가 후 감소되는 양상을 나타냈다. p53유전자의 발현도는 1 Gy이하에서 1시간 이내에 한계 수준에 근접했고 1 Gy의 조사 후 6시간 째에 최대였다. 1 Gy로부터 40 Gy까지의 범위에서는 조사 5시간 및 6시간까지 점진적으로 증가되는 반면 50 Gy에서 100 Gy범위에서는 조사 2시간 째까지 증가 후 감소되는 양상을 보였다. 따라서 감마선 조사양이 높을수록 jun 및 p53유전자는 신속하게 최대로 발현되었고 감마선 조사양이 낮을수록 서서히 증가되었다 그러나 jun유전자와 p53유전자의 감마선 조사에 따른 발현 양상에는 상호간의 연관성을 찾을 수 없었다.

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