• Title/Summary/Keyword: Random walk model

Search Result 130, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

A Lagrangian Stochastic Model for Turbulent Dispersion

  • Lee, Changhoon;Kim, Byunggu;Kim, Namhyun
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.15 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1683-1690
    • /
    • 2001
  • A Lagrangian stochastic model is adopted for the calculations of turbulent dispersion in turbulent channel flows. Dispersion of a fluid particle and relative dispersion between two particles released at the sane location are investigated and compared with the classical seating relations for homogeneous turbulence. The viscous effect is realized by adding a Browinian random walk to the calculation of the position of a particle. The near-wall accumulation of particles is examined.

  • PDF

Performance Evaluation of Mobile Ad Hoc Network Routing Protocols Using Geography Based Mobility Model (지형기반 이동성모델을 이용한 Ad Hoc망에서의 경로배정 프로토콜 성능분석)

  • 박범진;안홍영
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
    • /
    • 2003.07a
    • /
    • pp.153-156
    • /
    • 2003
  • Conventional simulations for mobile ad hoc network so far are based on the "random walk" of the mobile nodes, which are not constrained by their surrounding spatial environments. In this paper, we present a geography-based mobility model, which reflects more realistic movements of the real world. This mobility model is used for performance evaluation of MANET routing protocols.protocols.

  • PDF

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Parameter Estimation in Debris Flow Deposition Model Using Pseudo Sample Neural Network (의사 샘플 신경망을 이용한 토석류 퇴적 모델의 파라미터 추정)

  • Heo, Gyeongyong;Lee, Chang-Woo;Park, Choong-Shik
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.17 no.11
    • /
    • pp.11-18
    • /
    • 2012
  • Debris flow deposition model is a model to predict affected areas by debris flow and random walk model (RWM) was used to build the model. Although the model was proved to be effective in the prediction of affected areas, the model has several free parameters decided experimentally. There are several well-known methods to estimate parameters, however, they cannot be applied directly to the debris flow problem due to the small size of training data. In this paper, a modified neural network, called pseudo sample neural network (PSNN), was proposed to overcome the sample size problem. In the training phase, PSNN uses pseudo samples, which are generated using the existing samples. The pseudo samples smooth the solution space and reduce the probability of falling into a local optimum. As a result, PSNN can estimate parameter more robustly than traditional neural networks do. All of these can be proved through the experiments using artificial and real data sets.

Simulation of Debris Flow Deposit in Mt. Umyeon

  • Won, Sangyeon;Kim, Gihong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.507-516
    • /
    • 2015
  • Debris flow is a representative natural disaster in Korea and occurs frequently every year. Recently, it has caused considerable damage to property and considerable loss of life in both mountainous and urban regions. Therefore, It is necessary to estimate the scope of damage for a large area in order to predict the debris flow. A response model such as the random walk model(RWM) can be used as a useful tool instead of a physics-based numerical model. RWM is a probability model that simplifies both debris flows and sedimentation characteristics as a factor of slopes for a subjective site and represents a relatively simple calculation method compared to other debris flow behavior calculation models. Although RWM can be used to analyzing and predicting the scope of damage caused by a debris flow, input variables for terrain conditions are yet to be determined. In this study, optimal input variables were estimated using DEM generated from the Aerial Photograph and LiDAR data of Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, where a large-scale debris flow occurred in 2011. Further, the deposition volume resulting from the debris flow was predicted using the input variables for a specific area in which the deposition volume could not be calculated because of work restoration and the passage of time even though a debris flow occurred there. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the result of predicting the deposition volume in the debris flow with the result obtained from a debris flow behavior analysis model, Debris 2D.

Fluid Flow and Solute Transport in a Discrete Fracture Network Model with Nonlinear Hydromechanical Effect (비선형 hydromechanic 효과를 고려한 이산 균열망 모형에서의 유체흐름과 오염물질 이송에 관한 수치모의 실험)

  • Jeong, U-Chang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.31 no.3
    • /
    • pp.347-360
    • /
    • 1998
  • Numerical simulations for fluid flow and solute transport in a fracture rock masses are performed by using a transient flow model, which is based on the three-dimensional stochastic and discrete fracture network model (DFN model) and is coupled hydraulic model with mechanical model. In the numerical simulations of the solute transport, we used to the particle following algorithm which is similar to an advective biased random walk. The purpose of this study is to predict the response of the tracer test between two deep bore holes (GPK1 and GPK2) implanted at Soultz sous Foret in France, in the context of the geothermal researches.l The data sets used are obtained from in situcirculating experiments during 1995. As the result of the transport simulation, the mean transit time for the non reactive particles is about 5 days between two bore holes.

  • PDF

GIS-based Debris Flow Risk Assessment (GIS 기반 토석류 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Hanna;Kim, Gihong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.139-147
    • /
    • 2023
  • As heavy precipitation rates have increased due to climate change, the risk of landslides has also become greater. Studies in the field of disaster risk assessment predominantly focus on evaluating intrinsic importance represented by the use or role of facilities. This work, however, focused on evaluating risks according to the external conditions of facilities, which were presented via debris flow simulation. A random walk model (RWM) was partially improved and used for the debris flow simulation. The existing RWM algorithm contained the problem of the simulation results being overly concentrated on the maximum slope line. To improve the model, the center cell height was adjusted and the inertia application method was modified. Facility information was collected from a digital topographic map layer. The risk level of each object was evaluated by combining the simulation result and the digital topographic map layer. A risk assessment technique suitable for the polygon and polyline layers was applied, respectively. Finally, by combining the evaluated risk with the attribute table of the layer, a system was prepared that could create a list of objects expected to be damaged, derive various statistics, and express the risk of each facility on a map. In short, we used an easy-to-understand simulation algorithm and proposed a technique to express detailed risk information on a map. This work will aid in the user-friendly development of a debris flow risk assessment system.

Recycling of Suspended Particulates by Atmospheric Boundary Depth and Coastal Circulation

  • Choi, Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
    • /
    • 2003.11a
    • /
    • pp.19-26
    • /
    • 2003
  • The dispersion of recycled particulates in the complex coastal terrain containing Kangnung city, Korea was investigated using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical model and lagrangian particle model (or random walk model). The results show that particulates at the surface of the city that float to the top of thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) are then transported along the eastern slope of the mountains with the passage of sea breeze and nearly reach the top of the mountains. Those particulates then disperse eastward at this upper level over the coastal sea and finally spread out over the open sea. Total suspended particulate (TSP) concentration near the surface of Kangnung city is very low. At night, synoptic scale westerly winds intensify due to the combined effect of the synoptic scale wind and land breeze descending the eastern slope of the mountains toward the coast and further seaward. This increase in speed causes development of internal gravity waves and a hydraulic jump up to a height of about 1km above the surface over the city. Particulate matter near the top of the mountains also descends the eastern slope of the mountains during the day, reaching the central city area and merges near the surface inside the nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL) with a maximum ground level concentration of TSP occurring at 0300 LST. Some particulates were dispersed following the propagation area of internal gravity waves and others in the NSIL are transported eastward to the coastal sea surface, aided by the land breeze. The following morning, particulates dispersed over the coastal sea from the previous night, tend to return to the coastal city of Kangnung with the sea breeze, developing a recycling process and combine with emitted surface particulates during the morning. These processes result in much higher TSP concentration. In the late morning, those particulates float to the top of the TIBL by the intrusion of the sea breeze and the ground level TSP concentration in the city subsequently decreases.

  • PDF

Computations of Droplet Impingement on Airfoils in Two-Phase Flow

  • Kim, Sang-Dug;Song, Dong-Joo
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.19 no.12
    • /
    • pp.2312-2320
    • /
    • 2005
  • The aerodynamic effects of leading-edge accretion can raise important safety concerns since the formulation of ice causes severe degradation in aerodynamic performance as compared with the clean airfoil. The objective of this study is to develop a numerical simulation strategy for predicting the particle trajectory around an MS-0317 airfoil in the test section of the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel and to investigate the impingement characteristics of droplets on the airfoil surface. In particular, predictions of the mean velocity and turbulence diffusion using turbulent flow solver and Continuous Random Walk method were desired throughout this flow domain in order to investigate droplet dispersion. The collection efficiency distributions over the airfoil surface in simulations with different numbers of droplets, various integration time-steps and particle sizes were compared with experimental data. The large droplet impingement data indicated the trends in impingement characteristics with respect to particle size ; the maximum collection efficiency located at the upper surface near the leading edge, and the maximum value and total collection efficiency were increased as the particle size was increased. The extent of the area impinged on by particles also increased with the increment of the particle size, which is similar as compared with experimental data.

Real-Time Prediction of Streamflows by the State-Vector Model (상태(狀態)벡터 모형(模型)에 의한 하천유출(河川流出)의 실시간(實時間) 예측(豫測)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Seoh, Byung Ha;Yun, Yong Nam;Kang, Kwan Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.2 no.3
    • /
    • pp.43-56
    • /
    • 1982
  • A recursive algorithms for prediction of streamflows by Kalman filtering theory and Self-tuning predictor based on the state space description of the dynamic systems have been studied and the applicabilities of the algorithms to the rainfall-runoff processes have been investigated. For the representation of the dynamics of the processes, a low-order ARMA process has been taken as the linear discrete time system with white Gaussian disturbances. The state vector in the prediction model formulated by a random walk process. The model structures have been determined by a statistical analysis for residuals of the observed and predicted streamflows. For the verification of the prediction algorithms developed here, the observed historical data of the hourly rainfall and streamflows were used. The numerical studies shows that Kalman filtering theory has better performance than the Self-tuning predictor for system identification and prediction in rainfall-runoff processes.

  • PDF