• Title/Summary/Keyword: Random Demand

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Analysis of public library book loan demand according to weather conditions using machine learning (머신러닝을 활용한 기상조건에 따른 공공도서관 도서대출 수요분석)

  • Oh, Min-Ki;Kim, Keun-Wook;Shin, Se-Young;Lee, Jin-Myeong;Jang, Won-Jun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2022
  • Although domestic public libraries achieved quantitative growth based on the 1st and 2nd comprehensive library development plans, there were some qualitative shortcomings, and various studies have been conducted to improve them. Most of the preceding studies have limitations in that they are limited to social and economic factors and statistical analysis. Therefore, in this study, by applying the spatiotemporal concept to quantitatively calculate the decrease in public library loan demand due to rainfall and heatwave, by clustering areas with high demand for book loan due to weather changes and areas where it is not, factors inside and outside public libraries and After the combination, changes in public library loan demand according to weather changes were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, there was a difference in the decrease due to the weather for each public library, and it was found that there were some differences depending on the characteristics and spatial location of the public library. Also, when the temperature was over 35℃, the decrease in book loan demand increased significantly. As internal factors, the number of seats, the number of books, and area were derived. As external factors, the public library access ramp, cafe, reading room, floating population in their teens, and floating population of women in their 30s/40s were analyzed as important variables. The results of this analysis are judged to contribute to the establishment of policies to promote the use of public libraries in consideration of the weather in a specific season, and also suggested limitations of the study.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

차량 능동 현가장치의 혼합제어기 설계

  • 한기봉;이시복
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.293-298
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    • 1993
  • In ground vehicles, the increasing demand for safety and ride comfort which are trade-off relation, especially at high speeds, has led to the development od actively controlled suspensions. The LQG/LTR controller can be used to design a robust feedback control system that deals with disturbance rejection properties as well as insensitivity to modelling errors and sensor noise. And when the disturbance can not be measured but is limited within a certain frequency range, a bandpass feedback to eliminate the disturbance response can be used. In this paper, hybrid controller cosisted of bandpass feedback controller and LQG/LTR controller is applied to a quarter-car model moving on a randomly profiled road. The random road profile considered as colored noise is shaped from white noise by use of shaping filter. The performance of the hybrid control system is compared with that of an LQG/LTR controlled system.

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Optimum Inventory Level and optimal Selling Price to Realize a Pre-determined Level of Profit

  • Kang, Suk-Ho;Noh, Seung-Jong
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 1986
  • In this paper, the one period multi-item inventory model is considered in which it is required to determine the production quantity and selling price of each item which maximize the probability of realizing predetermined level of profit. The objective function of this model is the sum of weighted probabilities which represent the possibility of obtaining the predetermined level of profit for each item. Budget constraint, inventory site constraint and constraints of price are considered. Finally this paper shows a numerical example in which random demand of each item has exponential distribution.

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A Production and Preventive Maintenance Policy with Two Types of Failures (두 가지 고장형태를 고려한 생산 및 예방보전 정책)

  • 김호균;조형수
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2002
  • This paper studies an economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ) model with two types of failures and planned preventive maintenance of the production facility. One is a type I (major) failure which should be corrected by a failure maintenance and the other is a type H (minor) failure which can be minimally repaired without interrupting the production run. The objective is to determine the lot size and preventive replacement policy minimizing the long-run expected cost per unit time. We consider a control policy with a constant production lot size and preventive maintenance after completing n production runs. It is assumed that both preventive and failure maintenance times are random and the demand arriving during a stock-out period is lost. An expression for the expected cost per unit time is obtained in the general case. A special case is discussed and numerical results are provided.

Optimization of a Block Stacking Storage Model for a Single Product using (s, S) Inventory Policy ((s, S) 재고정책하에서 단일제품의 확률적 Block Stacking 저장모형의 최적화)

  • Yang, Moon-Hee;Chang, Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 1998
  • Block stacking, which involves the storage of unit loads in stacks within storage rows, is typically used in traditional warehouses to achieve a high space utilization at a low investment cost. In this paper, assuming that the demand size from a customer is an i.i.d. random variable, we develop a probabilistic block stacking storage model and its algorithm for a singles product, which minimizes the time-overage floor space requirement under an (s, S) inventory policy and the violation of the FIFO lot rotation rule only in a single partially-occupied row.

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Measurement Resolution of Edge Position in Digital Optical Imaging

  • Lee, Sang-Yoon;Kim, Seung-Woo
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2000
  • The semiconductor industry relies on digital optical imaging for the overlay metrology of integrated circuit patterns. One critical performance demand in the particular application of digital imaging is placed on the edge resolution that is defined as the smallest detectable displacement of an edge from its image acquired in digital from. As the critical feature size of integrated circuit patterns reaches below 0.35 micrometers, the edge resolution is required to be less than 0.01 micrometers. This requirement is so stringent that fundamental behaviors of digital optical imaging need to be explored especially for the precision coordinate metrology. Our investigation reveals that the edge resolution shows quasi-random characteristics, not being simply deduced from relevant opto-electronic system parameters. Hence, a stochastic upper bound analysis is made to come up with the worst edge resolution that can statistically well predict actual indeterminate edge resolutions obtained with high magnification microscope objectives.

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Moments calculation for truncated multivariate normal in nonlinear generalized mixed models

  • Lee, Seung-Chun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.377-383
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    • 2020
  • The likelihood-based inference in a nonlinear generalized mixed model often requires computing moments of truncated multivariate normal random variables. Many methods have been proposed for the computation using a recurrence relation or the moment generating function; however, these methods rely on high dimensional numerical integrations. The numerical method is known to be inefficient for high dimensional integral in accuracy. Besides the accuracy, the methods demand too much computing time to use them in practical analyses. In this note, a moment calculation method is proposed under an assumption of a certain covariance structure that occurred mostly in generalized mixed models. The method needs only low dimensional numerical integrations.

A Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) for Active State Control of A Heterogeneous Network

  • Yang, Janghoon
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.3171-3191
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    • 2016
  • Due to growing demand on wireless data traffic, a large number of different types of base stations (BSs) have been installed. However, space-time dependent wireless data traffic densities can result in a significant number of idle BSs, which implies the waste of power resources. To deal with this problem, we propose an active state control algorithm based on semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) for a heterogeneous network. A MDP in discrete time domain is formulated from continuous domain with some approximation. Suboptimal on-line learning algorithm with a random policy is proposed to solve the problem. We explicitly include coverage constraint so that active cells can provide the same signal to noise ratio (SNR) coverage with a targeted outage rate. Simulation results verify that the proposed algorithm properly controls the active state depending on traffic densities without increasing the number of handovers excessively while providing average user perceived rate (UPR) in a more power efficient way than a conventional algorithm.

RELTSYS: A computer program for life prediction of deteriorating systems

  • Enright, Michael P.;Frangopol, Dan M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.557-568
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    • 2000
  • As time-variant reliability approaches become increasingly used for service life prediction of the aging infrastructure, the demand for computer solution methods continues to increase. Effcient computer techniques have become well established for the reliability analysis of structural systems. Thus far, however, this is largely limited to time-invariant reliability problems. Therefore, the requirements for time-variant reliability prediction of deteriorating structural systems under time-variant loads have remained incomplete. This study presents a computer program for $\underline{REL}$iability of $\underline{T}$ime-Variant $\underline{SYS}$tems, RELTSYS. This program uses a combined technique of adaptive importance sampling, numerical integration, and fault tree analysis to compute time-variant reliabilities of individual components and systems. Time-invariant quantities are generated using Monte Carlo simulation, whereas time-variant quantities are evaluated using numerical integration. Load distribution and post-failure redistribution are considered using fault tree analysis. The strengths and limitations of RELTSYS are presented via a numerical example.