• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall.

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The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model (이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강우예측의 적용성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.695-707
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    • 2010
  • The frequency and size of typhoon and local severe rainfall are increasing due to the climate change and the damage also increasing from typhoon and severe rainfall. The flood forecasting and warning system to reduce the damage from typhoon and severe rainfall needs forecasted rainfall using radar data and short-term rainfall forecasting model. For this reason, this study examined the applicability of short-term rainfall forecast using translation model with weather radar data to point out that the utilization of flood forecasting in Korea. This study estimated the radar rainfall using Least-square fitting method and estimated rainfall was used as initial field of translation model. The translation model have verified accuracy of forecasted radar rainfall through the comparison of forecasted radar rainfall and observed rainfall quantitatively and qualitatively. Almost case studies showed that accuracy is over 0.6 within 4 hours leading time and mean of correlation coefficient is over 0.5 within 1 hours leading time in Kwanak and Jindo radar site. And, as the increasing the leading time, the forecast accuracy of precipitation decreased. The results of the calculated Mean Area Precipitation (MAP) showed forecast rainfall tend to be underestimated than observed rainfall but the correlation coefficient more than 0.5. Therefore it showed that translation model could be accurately predicted the rainfall relatively. The present results indicate that possibility of translation model application of Korea just within 2 hours leading forecasted rainfall.

Application of SWAT Model considering Spatial Distribution of Rainfall (강우의 공간분포를 고려한 SWAT 모형의 적용)

  • JANG, Daewon;KIM, Duckgil;KIM, Yonsoo;Choi, Wooil
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2018
  • In general, the rainfall-runoff simulation is performed using rainfall data from meteorological and observational rain gauge stations. However, if we only use rainfall data from meteorological and observational rain gauge stations for runoff simulation of a large watershed, the problem in the reliability of the simulated runoff can be occurred. Therefore, this study examined the influence of the rainfall data on the simulated runoff volume by a Semi-distributed model. For this, we used rainfall data from meteorological stations, meteorological and observational stations, and a spatially distributed rainfall data from hypothetical stations obtained by kriging method. And, we estimated the areal rainfall of each sub-basin. Also the estimated areal rainfall and the observed rainfall were compared and we compared the simulated runoff volumes using SWAT model by the rainfall data from meteorological and observational rain gauge stations and runoff volume from the estimated areal rainfall by Kriging method were analyzed. This study was performed to examine the accuracy of calculated runoff volume by spatially distributed areal rainfall. The analysis result of this study showed that runoff volume using areal rainfall is similar to observed runoff volume than runoff volume using the rainfall data of weather and rain gauging station. this means that spatially distributed rainfall reflect the real rainfall pattern.

A Selection of the Point Rainfall Process Model Considered on Temporal Clustering Characteristics (시간적 군집특성을 고려한 강우모의모형의 선정)

  • Kim, Kee-Wook;Yoo, Chul-Sang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.747-759
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    • 2008
  • This study, a point rainfall process model, which could represent appropriately observed rainfall data, was to select. The point process models-rectangular pulses Poisson process model(RPPM), Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses Poisson process model(NS-RPPM), and modified Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses Poisson process model(modified NS-RPPM)-all based on Poisson process were considered as possible rainfall models, whose statistical analyses were performed with their simulation rainfall data. As results, simulated rainfall data using the NS-RPPM and the modified NS-RPPM represent appropriately statistics of observed data for several aggregation levels. Also, simulated rainfall data using the modified NS-RPPM shows similar characteristics of rainfall occurrence to the observed rainfall data. Especially, the modified NS-RPPM reproduces high-intensity rainfall events that contribute largely to occurrence of natural harzard such as flood and landslides most similarly. Also, the modified NS-RPPM shows the best results with respect to the total rainfall amount, duration, and inter-event time. In conclusions, the modified NS-RPPM was found to be the most appropriate model for the long-term simulation of rainfall.

Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model (모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Min;Jee, Joon-Beom;Min, Jae-sik;Lee, Yong-Hee;Chung, Jun-Seok;You, Cheol-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2016
  • In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

A numerical study on the ventilation characteristics of rainfall in road tunnel (강우변화를 고려한 도로터널의 환기특성에 관한 수치해석)

  • Lee, Ho-Hyung;Lee, Seung-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.341-351
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    • 2015
  • When rainfall occurred on road tunnel, that is likely to have influence upon ventilation force in the tunnels but the tunnels ventilation system did not consider factors of rainfall. Thus, this study investigated effects of rainfall upon ventilation force in the tunnels at no rainfall and changing of rainfall by 3 dimensional numerical method. Flow rate into road tunnels decreased as many as 52.34% at rainfall of 150 mm/hr, and pressure drop of road tunnel between entrance and exit decreased as many as 22.22%, so that rainfall had influence upon ventilation force in the tunnel. The number of necessary jet fan in road tunnels is 12 at no rainfall but, when rainfall of 80 mm/hr on road tunnels, the number of necessary jet fan in road tunnels is 16, when rainfall of 150 mm/hr on road tunnels, the number of necessary jet fan in road tunnels is 17. So, factor of rainfall should be considered at estimation of ventilation system of road tunnel.

A Study on the Analysis of the Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Monthly Rainfall (해수면온도와 우리나라 월강우량과의 관계분석에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.471-482
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    • 2010
  • Rainfall events in the hydrologic circulation are closely related with various meteorological factors. Therefore, in this research, correlation relationship was analyzed between sea surface temperature of typical meteorological factor and monthly rainfall on Korean peninsula. The cluster analysis was performed monthly average rainfall data, longitude and latitude observed by rainfall observatory in Korea. Results from cluster analysis using monthly rainfall data in South Korea were divided into 4 regions. The principal components of monthly rainfall data were extracted from rainfall stations separated cluster regions. A correlation analysis was performed with extracted principal components and sea surface temperatures. At the results of correlation analysis, positive correlation coefficients were larger than negative correlation coefficients. In addition, The 3 month of principal components on monthly rainfall predicted by locally weighted polynomial regression using observed data of sea surface temperature where biggest correlation coefficients have. The result of forecasting through the locally weighted polynomial regression was revealed differences in accuracy. But, this methods in the research can be analyzed for forecasting about monthly rainfall data. Therefore, continuous research need through hydrological meteorological factors like a sea surface temperature about forecasting of the rainfall events.

Appropriateness analysis of design rainfall factors using the rainfall data of an inundated flood events (침수 홍수사상의 강우자료를 활용한 설계강우 요소의 적정성 분석)

  • Yu, Byeong-Wook;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze whether design rainfall and hyetograph, which are the main elements of design rainfall, can properly reflect the those of observed rainfalls through inundated rainfall events. The target areas were selected at seven large cities with high damages regarding to the flooding. Comparative analysis between probability and observed rainfall shows that 57% of the cases, in which rainfall amount through the IDF curve is estimated lower than the observed rainfall, do not properly reflect the observed rainfalls. In particular, this trend is exacerbated by the cases in low return period and the rain type of typhoon or frontal rain. The comparative results of rainfall intensity formula showed that the Talbot and Japanese formula were stable in the short- and long-term return periods, respectively. The comparison of hyetograph results also showed that the Mononobe method properly reflects the maximum rainfall intensity and the Huff method properly reflects the shape of rainfall pattern.

Rainfall Adjustment on Duration and Topographic Elevation (지속시간 및 표고에 따른 강우량 보정에 관한 연구)

  • Um, Myoung-Jin;Cho, Won-Cheol;Rim, Hae-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.511-521
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to develop a method of rainfall adjustment on duration and topographic elevation for rainfall data in Jejudo. The method of rainfall adjustment is based on the polynomial regression analysis for the hourly rainfall data and the distribution of observatories of korea meteorological administration. As the results of modeling have shown, duration and rainfall are more correlated than topographic elevation and rainfall, and the model which considers only an elevation exaggerates the amount of rainfall adjustment. Hence the model of duration-elevation-rainfall is more competitive to the natural rainfall event than the model of topographic elevation-rainfall. However this model require to supplement a small number of rainfall observatories and short observed period.

Provincial Road in National Highway Traffic Volume Variation According to Rainfall Intensity (강우 강도에 따른 일반국도 지방부 도로의 교통량 변동 특성)

  • Kim, Tae-Woon;Oh, Ju-Sam
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.406-414
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    • 2015
  • Existing relative researches for traffic were studied under favorable weather or excluding impact of weather. This study present traffic volume variation according to rainfall intensity in national highway provincial road and rainfall-factor. Continuous traffic count section match AWS after selecting to analyze provincial road 256 section. Weekdays ADT(Average Daily Traffic) and rainfall-factor are influenced by rainfall a little because of business travel. But non-weekdays ADT and rainfall-factor are influenced much more than weekdays because of leisure travel. Estimated AADT(Annual Average Daily Traffic) by adjusting rainfall-factor is lower MAPE than non-adjusting rainfall factor. So, rainfall have to be considered when estimating AADT. ADT decrease according to rainfall intensity, continuous studies considered rainfall intensity are needed when road design and operation.

Characteristic Change Analysis of Rainfall Events using Daily Rainfall Data (일강우자료를 이용한 강우사상의 변동 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.11
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    • pp.933-951
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    • 2009
  • Climate change of global warming may affect the water circulation in Korea. Rainfall is occurred with complex of multiple climatic indices. Therefore, the rainfall is one of the most significant index due to climate change in the process of water circulation. In this research, multiple time series data of rainfall events were extracted to represent the rainfall characteristics. In addition, the occurrence of rainfall time series analyzed by annual, seasonal and monthly data. Analysis method used change analysis of mean and standard deviation and trend analysis. Also, changes in rainfall characteristics and the relative error was calculated during the last 10 years for comparison with past data. At the results, significant statistical results weren't showed by randomness of rainfall data. However, amount of rainfall generally increased last 10 years, and number of raining days had trend of decrease. In addition, seasonal and monthly changes in the rainfall characteristics can be found to appear differently.