• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall prediction

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A Prediction Model for Removal of Non-point Source Pollutant Considering Clogging Effect of Sand Filter Layers for Rainwater Recycling (빗물 재활용을 위한 모래 정화층의 폐색특성을 고려한 비점오염원 제거 예측 모델 연구)

  • Ahn, Jaeyoon;Lee, Dongseop;Han, Shinin;Jung, Youngwook;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.23-39
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    • 2014
  • An artificial rainwater reservoir installed in urban areas for recycling rainwater is an eco-friendly facility for reducing storm water effluence. However, in order to recycle the rainwater directly, the artificial rainwater reservoir requires an auxiliary system that can remove non-point source pollutants included in the initial rainfall of urban area. Therefore, the conventional soil filtration technology is adopted to capture non-point source pollutants in an economical and efficient way in the purification system of artificial rainwater reservoirs. In order to satisfy such a demand, clogging characteristics of the sand filter layers with different grain-size distributions were studied with real non-point source pollutants. For this, a series of lab-scale chamber tests were conducted to make a prediction model for removal of non-point source pollutants, based on the clogging theory. The laboratory chamber experiments were carried out by permeating two types of artificially contaminated water through five different types of sand filter layers with different grain-size distributions. The two artificial contaminated waters were made by fine marine-clay particles and real non-point source pollutants collected from motorcar roads of Seoul, Korea. In the laboratory chamber experiments, the concentrations of the artificial contaminated water were measured in terms of TSS (Total Suspended Solids) and COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) and compared with each other to evaluate the performance of sand filter layers. In addition, the accumulated weight of pollutant particles clogged in the sand filter layers was estimated. This paper suggests a prediction model for removal of non-point source pollutants with theoretical consideration of the physical characteristics such as the grain-size distribution and composition, and change in the hydraulic conductivity and porosity of sand filter layers. The lumped parameter ${\theta}$ related with the clogging property was estimated by comparing the accumulated weight of pollutant particles obtained from the laboratory chamber experiments and calculated from the prediction model based on the clogging theory. It is found that the lumped parameter ${\theta}$ has a significant influence on the amount of the pollutant particles clogged in the pores of sand filter layers. In conclusion, according to the clogging prediction model, a double-sand-filter layer consisting of two separate layers: the upper sand-filter layer with the effective particle size of 1.49 mm and the lower sand-filter layer with the effective particle size of 0.93 mm, is proposed as the optimum system for removing non-point source pollutants in the field-sized artificial rainwater reservoir.

A Prediction Model for Forecast of the Onset Date of Changmas (장마 시작일 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 1993
  • Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

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Development of Landslide-Risk Prediction Model thorough Database Construction (데이터베이스 구축을 통한 산사태 위험도 예측식 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Woo;Kim, Gi-Hong;Yune, Chan-Young;Ryu, Han-Joong;Hong, Seong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2012
  • Recently, landslide disasters caused by severe rain storms and typhoons have been frequently reported. Due to the geomorphologic characteristics of Korea, considerable portion of urban area and infrastructures such as road and railway have been constructed near mountains. These infrastructures may encounter the risk of landslide and debris flow. It is important to evaluate the highly risky locations of landslide and to prepare measures for the protection of landslide in the process of construction planning. In this study, a landslide-risk prediction equation is proposed based on the statistical analysis of 423 landslide data set obtained from field surveys, disaster reports on national road, and digital maps of landslide area. Each dataset includes geomorphologic characteristics, soil properties, rainfall information, forest properties and hazard history. The comparison between the result of proposed equation and actual occurrence of landslide shows 92 percent in the accuracy of classification. Since the input for the equation can be provided within short period and low cost, and the results of equation can be easily incorporated with hazard map, the proposed equation can be effectively utilized in the analysis of landslide-risk for large mountainous area.

Interactions between Soil Moisture and Weather Prediction in Rainfall-Runoff Application : Korea Land Data Assimilation System(KLDAS) (수리 모형을 이용한 Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS) 자료의 수문자료에 대한 영향력 분석)

  • Jung, Yong;Choi, Minha
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.172-172
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    • 2011
  • The interaction between land surface and atmosphere is essentially affected by hydrometeorological variables including soil moisture. Accurate estimation of soil moisture at spatial and temporal scales is crucial to better understand its roles to the weather systems. The KLDAS(Korea Land Data Assimilation System) is a regional, specifically Korea peninsula land surface information systems. As other prior land data assimilation systems, this can provide initial soil field information which can be used in atmospheric simulations. For this study, as an enabling high-resolution tool, weather research and forecasting(WRF-ARW) model is applied to produce precipitation data using GFS(Global Forecast System) with GFS embedded and KLDAS soil moisture information as initialization data. WRF-ARW generates precipitation data for a specific region using different parameters in physics options. The produced precipitation data will be employed for simulations of Hydrological Models such as HEC(Hydrologic Engineering Center) - HMS(Hydrologic Modeling System) as predefined input data for selected regional water responses. The purpose of this study is to show the impact of a hydrometeorological variable such as soil moisture in KLDAS on hydrological consequences in Korea peninsula. The study region, Chongmi River Basin, is located in the center of Korea Peninsular. This has 60.8Km river length and 17.01% slope. This region mostly consists of farming field however the chosen study area placed in mountainous area. The length of river basin perimeter is 185Km and the average width of river is 9.53 meter with 676 meter highest elevation in this region. We have four different observation locations : Sulsung, Taepyung, Samjook, and Sangkeug observatoriesn, This watershed is selected as a tentative research location and continuously studied for getting hydrological effects from land surface information. Simulations for a real regional storm case(June 17~ June 25, 2006) are executed. WRF-ARW for this case study used WSM6 as a micro physics, Kain-Fritcsch Scheme for cumulus scheme, and YSU scheme for planetary boundary layer. The results of WRF simulations generate excellent precipitation data in terms of peak precipitation and date, and the pattern of daily precipitation for four locations. For Sankeug observatory, WRF overestimated precipitation approximately 100 mm/day on July 17, 2006. Taepyung and Samjook display that WRF produced either with KLDAS or with GFS embedded initial soil moisture data higher precipitation amounts compared to observation. Results and discussions in detail on accuracy of prediction using formerly mentioned manners are going to be presented in 2011 Annual Conference of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation.

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Applying Evaluation of Soil Erosion Models for Burnt Hillslopes - RUSLE, WEPP and SEMMA (산불사면에 대한 토양침식모형의 적용 평가 - RUSLE, WEPP, SEMMA)

  • Park, Sang Deog;Shin, Seung Sook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3B
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2011
  • Applicability of three soil erosion models for burnt hillslopes was evaluated. The models were estimated with the data from plots established after tremendous wildfire occurred in the east coastal region. Soil erosion and surface runoff were simulated by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) of application mode for disturbed forest areas and the Soil Erosion Model for Mountain Areas (SEMMA) developed for burnt hillslopes. Simulated sediment yield and surface runoff were compared with the measured those. In maximum value of sediment yield, three models was under-predicted and RUSLE and WEPP had difference of over two times. SEMMA showed the best model response coefficient, determination coefficient and the model efficiency. In application of models to the soil erosion according to the elapsed year after wildfire, all models were underestimated in initial stage disturbed by wildfire. Evaluation of models in this burnt hillslopes was shown the tends to under-predict soil erosion for larger measured values. Although a lot of sediment can be generated in small rainfall event as fine-grained soil of the high water repellency was exposed excessively right after wildfire, this under-prediction was shown that those models have a limit to estimate the weighted factors by wildfire.

Evaluation and Prediction of Failure Factors by Quantification Theory(II) on Banking Slopes in Forest Road (수량화(數量化)II류(類)에 의한 임도(林道) 성토사면(盛土斜面)의 붕괴요인(崩壞要人) 평가 (評價) 및 예측(豫測))

  • Cha, Du Song;Ji, Byoung Yun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.2
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    • pp.240-248
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    • 1999
  • On the basis of data obtained from five forest roads collapsed due to a heavy rainfall of 1995 in Chunchon, Kangwon-do, this study was carried out to evaluate and predict the fill slope failure of forest roads with four factors of forest road structure and those of location condition by using Quantification theory(II). The results were summarized as follows ; In the structure factors of forest road, the fill slope failure was mainly occurred in longitudinal gradients less than $2^{\circ}$ or more than $4^{\circ}$, distance of surface-flow longer than 80m, fill slope length greater than 6m, and fill slope gradients steeper than $35^{\circ}$. In the factors of location condition, the failure was mainly occurred in ridge portion of road position, weathered rock and soft rock of constituent material, slope gradients in the range from $35^{\circ}$ to $45^{\circ}$, and concave and convex of longitudinal slope forms. The priority order for factors influencing on fill slope failure was ranked by fill slope length, constituent material, road position, and so on. And the rate of correct discrimination by analysis of fill slope failure was estimated at the high prediction of 86.5%.

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Development and Implementation of Prototype for Intelligent Integrated Agricultural Water Management Information System and Service including Reservoirs managed by City and County (시군관리 저수지를 고려한 지능형 통합 물관리정보시스템 원형 개발 및 구현)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Kang, Seok-Man;Kim, Jin-Taek;Kim, Jeong-Dae;Kim, Hyun-Ho;Jang, Jin-Uk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2017
  • This study developed the prototype of the system and implemented its main functions, which is the intelligent integrated agricultural water management information system and service (IaWAMISS). The developed system was designed to be able to collect, process and analyze the agricultural water information of spatially dispersed reservoirs in whole country and spatial geographic information distributed in various systems of other organizations. The system, IaWAMISS, is also possible to provide the reproduced information services in each reservoir and space units, such as agricultural water demand and supply analysis and drought prediction, to the people, experts, and policy makers. This study defined the 6 step modules to develop the system, which are to design the components of intelligent integrated information system, to derive the utilization contents of existing systems, to design the new development elements for IaWAMISS, to design the reservoir information system can be used by managers of city and county, to designate the monitoring reservoirs managed by city and county, and finally to prepare the sharing system between organizations with the existing information systems. In order to implement the prototype of the system, this study shows the results for three important functions of the system: spatial integration of reservoirs' information, data link integration between the existing systems, and intelligent analysis program development to assist decision support for agricultural water management. For the spatial integration with the reservoir water information of the Korea Rural Community Corporation, this study get IaWAMISS to receive the real-time reservoir storage information from the measurement facility installed in the municipal management reservoir. The data link integration connecting databases of the existing systems, was implemented by integrating the meteorological information of the Korea Meteorological Administration with IaWAMISS, so that the rainfall forecast data could be derived and used. For the implementation of the intelligent analysis program, this study also showed the results of analysis and prediction of agricultural water demand and supply amount, estimation of Palmer drought index, analysis of flood risk area in typhoon course region, and analysis of the storage status of reservoirs related to each storm. This study confirmed the possibility and efficiency of an useful system development through the prototype design and implementation of IaWAMISS. By solving the preliminary 6 step modules presented in this study, it is possible not only to efficiently manage water by spatial unit, but also to provide the service of information and to enhance the relevant policy and national understanding to the people.

Development of Realtime Dam's Hydrologic Variables Prediction Model using Observed Data Assimilation and Reservoir Operation Techniques (관측자료 동화기법과 댐운영을 고려한 실시간 댐 수문량 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byong Ju;Jung, Il-Won;Jung, Hyun-Sook;Bae, Deg Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.7
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    • pp.755-765
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    • 2013
  • This study developed a real-time dam's hydrologic variables prediction model (DHVPM) and evaluated its performance for simulating historical dam inflow and outflow in the Chungju dam basin. The DHVPM consists of the Sejong University River Forecast (SURF) model for hydrologic modeling and an autoreservoir operation method (Auto ROM) for dam operation. SURF model is continuous rainfall-runoff model with data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. The four extreme events including the maximum inflow of each year for 2006~2009 were selected to examine the performance of DHVPM. The statistical criteria, the relative error in peak flow, root mean square error, and model efficiency, demonstrated that DHVPM with data assimilation can simulate more close to observed inflow than those with no data assimilation at both 1-hour lead time, except the relative error in peak flow in 2007. Especially, DHVPM with data assimilation until 10-hour lead time reduced the biases of inflow forecast attributed to observed precipitation error. In conclusion, DHVPM with data assimilation can be useful to improve the accuracy of inflow forecast in the basin where real-time observed inflow are available.

Digital simulation model for soil erosion and Sediment Yield from Small Agricultural Watersheds(I) (농업 소류역으로부터의 토양침식 및 유사량 시산을 위한 전산모의 모델 (I))

  • 권순국
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 1980
  • A deterministic conceptual erosion model which simulates detachment, entrainment, transport and deposition of eroded soil particles by rainfall impact and flowing water is presented. Both upland and channel phases of sediment yield are incorporated into the erosion model. The algorithms for the soil erosion and sedimentation processes including land and crop management effects are taken from the literature and then solved using a digital computer. The erosion model is used in conjunction with the modified Kentucky Watershed Model which simulates the hydrologic characteristics from watershed data. The two models are linked together by using the appropriate computer code. Calibrations for both the watershed and erosion model parameters are made by comparing the simulated results with actual field measurements in the Four Mile Creek watershed near Traer, Iowa using 1976 and 1977 water year data. Two water years, 1970 and 1978 are used as test years for model verification. There is good agreement between the mean daily simulated and recorded streamflow and between the simulated and recorded suspended sediment load except few partial differences. The following conclusions were drawn from the results after testing the watershed and erosion model. 1. The watershed and erosion model is a deterministic lumped parameter model, and is capable of simulating the daily mean streamflow and suspended sediment load within a 20 percent error, when the correct watershed and erosion parameters are supplied. 2. It is found that soil erosion is sensitive to errors in simulation of occurrence and intensity of precipitation and of overland flow. Therefore, representative precipitation data and a watershed model which provides an accurate simulation of soil moisture and resulting overland flow are essential for the accurate simulation of soil erosion and subsequent sediment transport prediction. 3. Erroneous prediction of snowmelt in terms of time and magnitute in conjunction with The frozen ground could be the reason for the poor simulation of streamflow as well as sediment yield in the snowmelt period. More elaborate and accurate snowmelt submodels will greatly improve accuracy. 4. Poor simulation results can be attributed to deficiencies in erosion model and to errors in the observed data such as the recorded daily streamflow and the sediment concentration. 5. Crop management and tillage operations are two major factors that have a great effect on soil erosion simulation. The erosion model attempts to evaluate the impact of crop management and tillage effects on sediment production. These effects on sediment yield appear to be somewhat equivalent to the effect of overland flow. 6. Application and testing of the watershed and erosion model on watersheds in a variety of regions with different soils and meteorological characteristics may be recommended to verify its general applicability and to detact the deficiencies of the model. Futhermore, by further modification and expansion with additional data, the watershed and erosion model developed through this study can be used as a planning tool for watershed management and for solving agricultural non-point pollution problems.

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Establishment and Application of Flood Forecasting System for Waterfront Belt in Nakdong River Basin for the Prediction of Lowland Inundation of River. (하천구역내 저지대 침수예측을 위한 낙동강 친수지구 홍수예측체계 구축 및 적용)

  • Kim, Taehyung;Kwak, Jaewon;Lee, Jonghyun;Kim, Keuksoo;Choi, Kyuhyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.294-294
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    • 2019
  • The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

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