• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall prediction

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Applicability evaluation from rainfall forecasting (예측 강우 자료의 적용성 평가 연구)

  • Yu, Myungsu;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.3-3
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    • 2015
  • 임진강 유역면적은 $8,138.9km^2$이나 이 중 62.9%인 $5,108km^2$가 군사분계선 이북에 놓여있어 유역특성에 따른 수문량을 분석하는 데 어려움이 있다. 1996년, 1998년, 1999년 및 2011년 임진강 유역의 이상 강우로 인해 약 1조 원의 재산피해와 136명의 인명피해가 발생하였다. 이처럼 국지성 호우의 발생 여부 및 강우의 지역적 편차 등 수문 정보를 예측하지 못하여 상황 대처가 어려운 실정이다. 따라서 미계측 유역이 많은 임진강 유역의 홍수피해 최소화를 위해 예측 강우와 같은 수문 정보의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 임진강 유역 중 미계측 유역이 97%에 달하는 군남홍수조절지 유역에 예측 강우 자료의 적용을 위해, 임진강 유역의 한탄강 유역($2,436.4km^2$)에 대하여 예측 강우자료의 적용성을 평가하였다. 예측 강우 자료는 기상청의 Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System(LDAPS) 자료를 사용하여 선행 시간에 따른 예측 정확도로부터 적용성을 평가하였다.

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Rainfall runoff prediction using instantaneous unit hydrograph derived by dynamic wave model based (동역학파 기반 순간단위도를 이용한 유출수문곡선 예측)

  • Jeong, Minyeob;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Dae-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.110-110
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    • 2019
  • 유역 강우-유출 과정의 물리적 특성과 비선형성을 반영하여 유출을 예측할 수 있는 새로운 방법을 제시한다. Dynamic wave 이론 기반의 강우-유출 모형과 유역의 지형적, 수문학적 특성을 이용하여 유역의 순간단위도를 S-수문곡선 방법을 통해 유도하였으며, 비선형성을 고려한 유출수문곡선 산정을 위해 순간단위도의 회선적분 시 강우강도별로 달라지는 순간단위도를 반영하였다. 기존 선형 가정에 근거한 단위도 방법이나, kinematic wave 이론 기반의 순간단위도 방법들에 비해 유역 반응의 물리적 특성과 비선형성을 잘 반영할 수 있었으며, 수치 시뮬레이션을 통한 강우유출 예측 방법에 비해 예측에 소요되는 시간이 짧다는 이점을 가졌다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법에 대한 이상적 유역, 실제 유역에 대한 검증을 진행하였으며 실제 관측결과와 비교해 본 결과 유역의 강우-유출 관계를 정확히 예측하였다는 결론을 얻을 수 있었다.

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A Visualization Tool for Prediction of Air Pollution Levels using Rainfall Information (강수량 정보를 이용한 대기오염도 예측 시각화 도구)

  • Jang, Hye-Ji;Jang, Won-Geun;Lee, Hu-Yong;Kim, Sung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2013.11a
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    • pp.1606-1608
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    • 2013
  • 대기 중에 비는 기체상태 혹은 입자상태로 대기오염물질을 습성침착 하는 대기정화작용을 한다. 환경과학분야에서는 이러한 자연의 대기정화 프로세스를 분석하여 강우량에 따라 대기정화 정도를 예측하기 위한 모델들을 제시하고 있고, 이러한 모델들을 이용하여 대기오염을 예보하는 응용이 확산되고 있다. 본 논문은 강수량에 따른 대기오염물질(NO2, PM10) 정화효과 모델을 기반으로, 강우량 정보를 이용하여 대기오염도 예측결과를 시각화하는 도구를 제시한다. 본 연구의 결과는 직관적인 대기오염피해를 예방하는 도구로서 활용 가능하다.

Development of ensemble method for ultra-shortterm rainfall prediction using radar data (레이더자료를 이용한 초단기 강우 앙상블 예측 기법 개발)

  • Noh, Hui-Seong;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Hwang, Suk-Hwan;Kang, Sung-Dae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.193-193
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    • 2020
  • 집중호우로 인한 이재민 발생, 침수 등 많은 인명 및 재산 피해가 지속적으로 발생함에 따라, 홍수재해를 사전에 대응하는 다양한 방법에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 레이더 반사도를 이용하여 강우의 이동방향과 이동속도를 추정하여 초단기 정량강우예측(QPF)이 가능한 기법을 개발하고, 2016년 태풍 차바 사상에 대하여 비슬산 레이더자료를 이용하여 분석을 실시하였다. 개발기법은 1단계 레이더 강우강도 앙상블 멤버 생성, 2단계 레이더 강우강도 이동속도 계산, 3단계 레이더 강우강도 앙상블 초단기 예보, 4단계 초단기 예보 검증의 과정으로 이루어진다. 본 연구결과물인 레이더 기반 초단기 강우예측자료는 수치예보기반 강우예측자료 및 다양한 레이더 기반 초단기예보자료들과 함께 강우예측율 향상에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

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Study on the Management of Doam Dam Operation by the Analysis of Suspended Solids Behavior in the lake (호내 부유물질 거동 분석을 통한 도암댐 운영 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Yeom, Bo-Min;Lee, Hye Won;Moon, Hee-Il;Yun, Dong-Gu;Choi, Jung Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.470-480
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    • 2019
  • The Doam lake watershed was designated as a non-point pollution management area in 2007 to improve water quality based on watershed management implementation. There have been studies of non-point source reduction with respect to the watershed management impacting the pollutant transport of the reservoir. However, a little attention has been focused on the impact of water quality improvement by the management of the dam operation or the guidelines on the dam operation. In this study, the impact of in-lake management practices combined with watershed management is analyzed, and the appropriate guidelines on the operation of the dam are suggested. The integrated modeling system by coupling with the watershed model (HSPF) and reservoir water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) was applied for analyzing the impact of water quality management practices. A scenario implemented with sedimentation basin and suspended matter barrier showed decrease in SS concentration up to 4.6%. The SS concentration increased in the scenarios adjusting withdrawal location from EL.673 m to the upper direction(EL.683 m and EL.688 m). The water quality was comparably high when the scenario implemented all in-lake practices with water intake at EL.673 m. However, there was improvement in water quality when the height of the water intake was moved to EL.688 m during the summer by preventing sediments inflow after the rainfall. Therefore, to manage water quality of the Doam lake, it is essential to control the water quality by modulating the height of water intake through consistent turbidity monitoring during rainfall.

Development of Near Real Time GNSS Precipitable Water Vapor System Using Precise Point Positioning (정밀절대측위를 이용한 준실시간 GNSS 가강수량 시스템 개발)

  • Yoon, Ha Su;Cho, Jung Ho;Park, Han Earl;Yoo, Sung Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.471-484
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    • 2017
  • GNSS PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) is recognized as an important factor for weather forecasts of typhoons and heavy rainfall. Domestic and foreign research have been published that improve weather forecasts using GNSS PWV as initial input data to NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) model. For rainfall-related weather forecasts, PWV should be provided in real time or NRT (Near-Real Time) and the accuracy and integrity should be maintained. In this paper, the development process of NRT GNSS PWV system using PPP (Precise Point Positioning). To this end, we optimized the variables related to tropospheric delay estimation of PPP. For the analysis of the PPP NRT PWV system, we compared the PWV precision of RP (Relative Positioning) and PPP. As a result, the accuracy of PPP was lower than that of RP, but good results were obtained in the PWV data integrity. Future research is needed to improve the precision of PWV in the PPP method.

A Study on the Application of Time Distribution Model for Design Storms (설계강우의 시간적 분포모형 적용성 연구)

  • 서진호;이상배
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.205-217
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    • 1995
  • The historical data from 3, 550 event storms during 11 years in Wi-stream basin have been used to investigate the statistical parameter of the time distribution for design storms by the method of Yen-Chow, Huff, Pilgrim-Cordery and Mononobe. The dimensionless value of triangular hyetograph, $a^0$, ranges from 0.44 to 0.50 and trapezoidal hyetograph, $h^0$, value increases as the duration time is getting longer in Yen-Chow method. In the Huff, the second-quartile storms occurred most frequently and third-quartile storms occurred most infrequently. In the Pilgrim-Cordery, the shapes for shorter than 6-hour durations are advanced tendency. However, for longer than 6-hour durations show delayed tendency. In the Mononobe, every one hour rainfall occured Centered Type. The application of these methods for each duration time was tested by using the observed rainfall-runoff data of Wi-stream basin. As a result, the reappearance of hydrographs of triangular hyetograph by Yen-Chow method showed promising, and it was approved to be used for prediction of the ungaged basins.

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Investigating the scaling effect of the nonlinear response to precipitation forcing in a physically based hydrologic model (강우자료의 스케일 효과가 비선형수문반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, K.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.149-153
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component and critical to the study of water and energy cycle. This study investigates the propagation of precipitation retrieval uncertainty in the simulation of hydrologic variables for varying spatial resolution on two different vegetation cover. We explore two remotely sensed rain retrievals (space-borne IR-only and radar rainfall) and three spatial grid resolutions. An offline Community Land Model (CLM) was forced with in situ meteorological data In turn, radar rainfall is replaced by the satellite rain estimates at coarser resolution $(0.25^{\circ},\;0.5^{\circ}\;and\;1^{\circ})$ to determine their probable impact on model predictions. Results show how uncertainty of precipitation measurement affects the spatial variability of model output in various modelling scales. The study provides some intuition on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach.

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The Development and Application of the Quasi-dynamic Wetness Index and the Dynamic Wetness Index (유사 동력학적 습윤지수와 동력학적 습윤지수의 개발과 적용)

  • Han, Ji-Young;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Nam-Won;Kim, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.961-969
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    • 2003
  • Formulation of quasi-dynamic wetness index was derived to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of the soil moisture. The algorithm of dynamic wetness index was developed through introducing the convolution integral with the rainfall input. The spatial and temporal behaviors of the wetness index of the Sulmachun Watershed was calculated using the digital elevation model(DEM) and the rainfall data for two years. The spatial distribution of the dynamic wetness index shows most dispersive feature of flow generation among the three assumptions of steady, quasi-dynamic and dynamic. The statistical distribution of the quasi-dynamic wetness index and the dynamic wetness index approximate to the steady state wetness index as the time step is increased. The dynamic wetness index shows mixed distribution of the normalized probability density function.

Estimation of Diameter and Height Growth Equations Using Environmental Variables (환경인자를 이용한 직경 및 수고생장 모형 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.3
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    • pp.351-356
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    • 2009
  • This study purposed to judge potential possibility of building highly precise empirical model using environmental variables. Environmental variables such as altitude, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature and organic matter ratio of soil were added to height and diameter model for Chamaecyparis obtusa, and examined accuracy and residuals of prediction model. Improvement in precision was found for the Gompertz polymorphic height model by including mean temperature and altitude as independent variables, while the Gompertz diameter model with annual rainfall and altitude was showed improvement of precision and accuracy. Comparing the improvement of precision between the model before adding environmental variables and the model after adding them, an improvement or some ratio was obtained though it is not obvious. Therefore, there is enough proof that adding environmental variables, which can be easily acquired relatively when considering the difficulties of measurement and budget, into the model as independent variables would improve the accuracy and precision of growth models.