• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall Error

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Real Time Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks (인공신경망 이론을 이용한 실시간 홍수량 예측 및 해석)

  • Kang, Moon-Seong;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.277-280
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    • 2002
  • An artificial neural network model was developed to analyze and forecast real time river runoff from the Naju watershed, in Korea. Model forecasts are very accurate (i.e., relative error is less than 3% and $R^2$ is great than 0.99) for calibration data sets. Increasing the time horizon for validation data sets, thus making the model suitable for flood forecasting, decreases the accuracy of the model. The resulting optimal EBPN models for forecasting real time runoff consists of ten rainfall and four and ten runoff data (ANN0410 and ANN1010 models). Performances of the ANN0410 and ANN1010 models remain satisfactory up to 6 hours (i.e., $R^2$ is great than 0.92).

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Analysis on Characteristics of Radiosonde Bias Using GPS Precipitable Water Vapor

  • Park, Chang-Geun;Baek, Jeong-Ho;Cho, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2010
  • As an observation instrument of the longest record of tropospheric water vapor, radiosonde data provide upper-air pressure (geopotential height), temperature, humidity and wind. However, the data have some well-known elements related to inaccuracy. In this article, radiosonde precipitable water vapor (PWV) at Sokcho observatory was compared with global positioning system (GPS) PWV during each summertime of year 2007 and 2008 and the biases were calculated. As a result, the mean bias showed negative values regardless of the rainfall occurrence. In addition, on the basis of GPS PWV, the maximum root mean square error (RMSE) was 5.67 mm over the radiosonde PWV.

Analysis of LMDS Channel Characteristics for Multimedia Services in Microwave (마이크로파 대역에서 멀티미디어 서비스를 위한 LMDS의 채널 특성 분석)

  • 박혁규;윤현정
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 1998.06a
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    • pp.38-41
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    • 1998
  • Due to the increasing demand to multimedia services over wireless communication network, LMDS(Local Multipoint Distribution Service) has been proposed as an alternate approach for broadband wireless access network. But LMDS, Which uses the mmwavelength radio spectrum, has been limited for unknown microwave frequency characteristics. In this paper, we analyze the parameters related to the system design on 28GHz frequency: Propagation path loss and rainfall attenuation. Based on these analytical results, the proper cell size in Korea is determined. We also analyze the bit error rate and frame loss rate for various kinds of digital modulation schemes(QAM 4, 16, 64, 256). Finally, we apply to ㅍ service to evaluate a call blocking rate, efficiency and channel capacity.

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Estimating Pollutant Loading Using Remote Sensing and GIS-AGNPS model (RS와 GIS-AGNPS 모형을 이용한 소유역에서의 비점원오염부하량 추정)

  • 강문성;박승우;전종안
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.102-114
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    • 2003
  • The objectives of the paper are to evaluate cell based pollutant loadings for different storm events, to monitor the hydrology and water quality of the Baran HP#6 watershed, and to validate AGNPS with the field data. Simplification was made to AGNPS in estimating storm erosivity factors from a triangular rainfall distribution. GIS-AGNPS interface model consists of three subsystems; the input data processor based on a geographic information system. the models. and the post processor Land use patten at the tested watershed was classified from the Landsat TM data using the artificial neural network model that adopts an error back propagation algorithm. AGNPS model parameters were obtained from the GIS databases, and additional parameters calibrated with field data. It was then tested with ungauged conditions. The simulated runoff was reasonably in good agreement as compared with the observed data. And simulated water quality parameters appear to be reasonably comparable to the field data.

The design of transmitting antenna on the optical satelite communication up-link in rain (광위성 통신시 업링크에서 강우에 따른 송신 안테나 설계)

  • 정진호
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics D
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    • v.34D no.6
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 1997
  • Today's wireless communication needs the super-high speed for picture transmission as well as voice. The optical communication with the very wide bandwidth is suitable for this demand. To fulfill the optical wireless communication, however, the atmospheric attenuation in rainy weather condition must be overcome. In the optical satellite up-link communication between geo-satellite and earth station, the factors of attenuation are turbulence, pointing error, scattering, and so on. The most serious factor for these is the scattering by rain. Under the weather conditiion of rain and cloud, in this paper, the atmospheic attenuation which affects the optical satellite up-link communication was considered, and the optimum idameter of the optical satellite transmitting antenna in the earth station versus elevation angles, data rates and rainfall rates was presented.

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Sampling Error Problem on Rainfall Observation Using Satelite (인공위성을 이용한 강우관측과 관측오차)

  • 유철상
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1997.05a
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    • pp.186-191
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    • 1997
  • 인공위성을 이용한 강우관측은 지상에서의 강우관측과는 달리 넒은 지역의 관측을 가능하게 하고 또한 해양에서의 강우까지도 관측할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 그러나 이러한 강우관측도 몇가지 문제점을 포함하고 있는데 그 하나로서 관측오차 문제를 들 수 있다. 이것은 관측된 강우가 공간적으로는 연속이지만 시간적으론 불연속이기 때문에 발생하는 구조적인 문제로서 강우의 시간적-공간적 통계특성과 관측계획에 따라 각각 다르게 정량화 된다. 본 논문에서는 인공위성을 이용한 강우 관측시 발생하는 관측오차의 추정식을 소개하고 두개의 다차원 강우모형을 사용하여 적용해 보았다. 현재까지의 관측오차 추정은 강우의 2차원 통계특성만을 고려하기 때문에 모형의 매개변수들이 이 특성에 맞추어 적절히 추정된 경우, 모델에 따른 차이는 크지 않은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 앞으로 이러한 단점은 2차원 이상의 통계특성을 고려하는, 궁극적으로는 강우의 확률밀도함수를 고려할 수 있는 관측오차 추정식의 개발을 통해 개선될 수 있을 것이다.

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Assessment of Remote Sensing-based Hydrological Drought Indices (인공위성영상 기반의 수문기상변수를 활용한 수문학적 가뭄지수 개발 및 평가)

  • Sur, Chanyang;Park, Seo-Yeon;Kim, Tae-Woong;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.22-22
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 수문학적 가뭄을 분석하기 위해 두가지 지수를 개발하여 소개하고자 한다. 첫번째는, 물수지식을 기반으로 산정된 Water Budget-based Drought Index(WBDI)로 강우와 증발산의 차이를 이용하여 산정한다. 두 번째는 에너지 수지식을 기반으로 산정된 Energy-based Water Deficit Index(EWDI)로 에너지 수지 기반의 증발산, 태양복사에너지와 토양수분 등을 이용하여 산정한다. 두가지 지수 모두 인공위성 영상 자료를 활용하였다. WBDI 산정을 위한 강수량 자료는 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)과 Global Precipitation Mission(GPM)를 활용하였으며, 증발산 자료는 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 자료를 활용하였다. EWDI 산정에 필요한 입력자료는 모두 MODIS 자료를 활용하였다. 산정된 두 가뭄지수의 수문학적 가뭄 분석을 위해 자연유출지점인 6개 지점을 선정하여 유출량 자료와 비교하였다. 유출량 자료를 활용하여 Error matrix 기법을 적용하여 두 수문학적 가뭄지수의 우리나라에서의 적용성을 파악하였다.

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A Study on Stochastic Estimation of Monthly Runoff by Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석에 의한 하천 월 유출량의 추계학적 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김태철;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 1980
  • Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

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Assessment of Soil Loss at Military Shooting Range by RUSLE Model: Correlation Between Soil Loss and Migration of Explosive Compounds (RUSLE 모델에 의한 군사격장 피탄지 토양유실량 평가: 토양 유실과 오염 화약물질 이동 상관성)

  • Gong, Hyo-Young;Lee, Kwang-Pyo;Lee, Jong-Yeol;Kim, Bumjoon;Lee, Ahreum;Bae, Bumhan;Kim, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2012
  • The applicability and accuracy of Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model on the estimation of soil loss at impacted area of shooting range was tested to further the understanding of soil erosion at shooting ranges by using RUSLE. At a shooting range located in northern Kyunggi, the amount of soil loss was estimated by RUSLE model and compared with that estimated by Global Positioning System-Total Station survey. As results, the annual soil loss at a study site (202 m long by 79 m wide) was estimated to be 2,915 ton/ha/year by RUSLE and 3,058 ton/ha/year by GPS-TS survey, respectively. The error between two different estimations was less than 5%, however, information on site conditions should be collected more to adjust model coefficients accurately. At the study shooting range, sediments generated by rainfall was transported from the top to near the bottom of the sloping face through sheet erosion as well as rill erosion, forming a gully along the direction of the storm water flow. Coarser fractions of the sediments were redeposited in the limited area along the channel. Distribution characteristics of explosive compounds in soil before and after summer monsoon rainfall in the study area were compared with the erosion patterns. Soil sampling and analyses results showed that the dispersion of explosive compounds in surface soil was consistent with the characteristics of soil erosion and redeposition pattern of sediment movements after rainfalls.

Empirical Study on the Prediction of Rain Attenuation in EHF(44 GHz) Band (EHF(44 GHz) 대역 강우 감쇠 특성 예측 연구)

  • Park Yong-Ho;Lee Joo-Hwan;Pack Jeong-Ki
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.16 no.8 s.99
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    • pp.848-854
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    • 2005
  • The attenuation due to rain has been recognized as one of the major causes of unavailability of radio communication systems operating above about 10 GHz. To design radio links for telecommunications and to evaluate attenuation due to rainfall, it is important to have a good prediction model for rain attenuation such as a model for drop-size distribution of rainfall(DSD), a theoretical model for specific rain attenuation, and an empirical model fur effective path length through rain. In this paper, the extended generalized gamma distribution for drop-size distribution, based on the measurements in Chnugnam National University, is proposed as a new DSD model, and predicted specific attenuation characteristics using proposed DSD model and rain attenuation values in the 44 GHz satellite path using ITU-R effective path length model, are analysed. The predicted attenuation levels are also compared. It is found that an accurate prediction method for DSD is very important to reduce the prediction error in the local satellite path.