• Title/Summary/Keyword: ROC 함수

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Drought evaluation using unstructured data: a case study for Boryeong area (비정형 데이터를 활용한 가뭄평가 - 보령지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Jinhong;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1203-1210
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    • 2020
  • Drought is caused by a combination of various hydrological or meteorological factor, so it is difficult to accurately assess drought event, but various drought indices have been developed to interpret them quantitatively. However, the drought indexes currently being used are calculated from the lack of a single variable, which is a problem that does not accurately determine the drought event caused by complex causes. Shortage of a single variable may not be a drought, but it is judged to be a drought. On the other hand, research on developing indices using unstructured data, which is widely used in big data analysis, is being carried out in other fields and proven to be superior. Therefore, in this study, we intend to calculate the drought index by combining unstructured data (news data) with weather and hydrologic information (rainfall and dam inflow) that are being used for the existing drought index, and to evaluate the utilization of drought interpretation through verification of the calculated drought index. The Clayton Copula function was used to calculate the joint drought index, and the parameter estimation was used by the calibration method. The analysis showed that the drought index, which combines unstructured data, properly expresses the drought period compared to the existing drought index (SPI, SDI). In addition, ROC scores were calculated higher than existing drought indices, making them more useful in drought interpretation. The joint drought index calculated in this study is considered highly useful in that it complements the analytical limits of the existing single variable drought index and provides excellent utilization of the drought index using unstructured data.

Estimation of Mega Flood Using Mega Rainfall Scenario (거대강우 시나리오를 이용한 거대홍수량 산정)

  • Han, Daegun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Jeawon;Lee, Jongso;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, flood due to the consecutive storm events have been occurred and property damage and casualties are in increasing trend. This study calls the consecutively occurred storm events as a mega rainfall scenario and the discharge by the scenario is defined as a mega flood discharge. A mega rainfall scenario was created on the assumption that 100-year frequency rainfall events were consecutively occurred in the Gyeongancheon stream basin. The SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model was used to estimate the mega flood discharge using the scenario in the basin. In addition, in order to perform more reasonable runoff analysis, the parameters were estimated using the SCE_UA algorithm. Also, the calibration and verification were performed using the objective functions of the weighted sum of squared of residual(WSSR), which is advantageous for the peak discharge simulation and sum of squared of residual(SSR). As a result, the mega flood discharge due to the continuous occurrence of 100-year frequency rainfall events in the Gyeongan Stream Basin was estimated to be 4,802㎥/s, and the flood discharge due to the 100-year frequency single rainfall event estimated by "the Master Plan for the Gyeongancheon Stream Improvement" (2011) was 3,810㎥/s. Therefore, the mega flood discharge was found to increase about 992㎥/s more than the single flood event. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan of the Gyeongan Stream basin.