• Title/Summary/Keyword: ROC(Receiver operating characteristic)

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Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Study on the diagnostic utility of serum levels of insulin-like growth Factor-I and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 in growth hormone deficiency (성장호르몬 결핍증 진단에 있어서 혈중 insulin-like growth factor-I 및 insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 농도의 진단적 유용성에 대한 연구)

  • Ji, Geun Ha;Lee, Jeong Nyeo;Chung, Woo Yeong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.1329-1335
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study aimed to determine the best cutoff line for insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I and insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP)-3 to discriminate between growth hormone deficiency (GHD) patients and the control group. Methods : Two hundred thirty subjects with normal controls (129 boys and 101 girls, aged 7-15 years), 14 patients with complete GHD (12 boys and 2 girls), and 17 patients with partial GHD (9 boys and 8 girls) were studied. IGF-I serum concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay (RI), and IGFBP-3 concentrations were measured by immunoradiometric assay (IRMA). Results : The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot analysis showed that the best IGF-I and IGFBP-3 cutoff line was at -1 standard deviation (SD). By comparing IGF-I serum levels of GHD children within 1 SD of normal control, we determined the sensitivity (S) (87.5-100%) and specificity (Sp) (80-84.6%) according to the age group. For IGFBP-3, we determined the following values: S (58.7-85.7%) and Sp (79.2-85.5%). Eleven of 14 patients with complete GHD (78.5%) and 16 of 17 patients with partial GHD (94.1%) had IGF-I concentrations equal to or below -1 SD of the control group mean. Ten of 12 complete GHD children (83.3%) and 13 of 17 partial GHD children (76.5%) had IGFBP-3 concentrations equal or below -1 SD of the control group mean. Conclusion : We conclude that the measurement of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 concentrations might provide essential supplementary data in the diagnostic evaluation of patients with GHD. Our results support the need to use cutoff lines based on below -1 SD of the control.

Cutoff Values of Body Mass Index and Body Fat Measures for Metabolic Syndrome in Korean Population (한국인에서 대사증후군의 선별검사로서 체성분 분석 및 체질량지수의 타당성연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Jae;Kim, Byoung-Gwon;Kim, Joon-Youn;Kim, Jung-Man;Yoo, Byung-Chul;Kim, Eun-Jeong;Hong, Young-Seoub
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2010
  • This study investigated cut-off values of body mass index (BMI) and body fat measures for metabolic syndrome (MS) in elderly Koreas. Questionnaire surveys, anthropometric measurements, medical examinations, and body composition analyses were conducted for 10,077 subjects aged 40-65 years in the health examinee cohort in Korea between 2004 and 2006. Cut-off values were identified using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for both men and women. Stratified analyses by weight range (<60, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89, ${\geq}90\;kg$ for men; <50, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, ${\geq}80\;kg$ for women) were conducted. Among male subjects, the cut-off points were $25.5\;kg/m^2$ for BMI with a sensitivity of 70.0% and a specificity of 72.0%, and 26.1% for body fat percentage with a sensitivity of 60.6% and a specificity of 76.4%. Among female subjects, the cutoff points were $24.1\;kg/m^2$ for BMI with a sensitivity of 73.3% and a specificity of 68.8%, and 31.5% for body fat percentage with a sensitivity of 76.7% and a specificity of 65.6%. Stratified analysis by weight range showed that the cutoff points of BMI and body fat measures tended to higher as weight level increased. The results of our study suggest cut-off values of BMI and body fat measure for MS were similar to the general obesity criteria in Korea.

Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

Diagnostic Availability of Estrogen Receptor Alpha mRNA on Cervical Cancer Tissue (자궁경부암 조직에서 에스트로겐 수용체 알파 mRNA의 진단적 유용성)

  • Kim, Geehyuk;Yu, Kwangmin;Kim, Jungho;Kim, Seoyong;Park, Sunyoung;Ahn, Sungwoo;Lee, Ji-Young;Kim, Sunghyun;Park, Ho-Hyun;Lee, Dongsup
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2018
  • Cervical cancer is the fourth most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide. In lower Human Development Index countries, it has the second highest incidence and mortality among cancer in women. Therefore, better diagnosis and treatment systems are needed. Among them, estrogen receptor alpha ($ER-{\alpha}$) mRNA expression has been analyzed with RT-qPCR since several studies reported that $ER-{\alpha}$ is necessary in the maturation of the uterus and is related to cervical cancer. In this study, $ER-{\alpha}$ quantitative analysis was performed on various lesions and normal tissue samples. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, its sensitivity and specificity were 85% and 75%, respectively, showing higher or similar results to those of conventional HPV tests. In addition, its expression level was analyzed with clinical information. With regression analysis, the R square value between the $ER-{\alpha}$ mRNA expression level and menopause status was 0.5041, indicating a strong correlation. This study was performed as part of a pilot study and suggests that $ER-{\alpha}$ is related to carcinogenesis. Future studies will examine other hormones and menopausal factors with a larger sample size.

Increased Peripheral NK Cell Fraction and Their Cytolytic activity in Patients with History of Recurrent Spontaneous Abortion (말초혈액 자연살해세포 분획 및 세포용해 활성도 분석을 통한 습관성 유산 위험군의 진단적 유용성에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Young;Hwang, Su-Jin;Han, Ae-Ra;Yoo, Ji-Hee;Park, Dong-Wook;Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Hye-Ok;Cha, Sun-Hwa;Kim, Jin-Young;Song, In-Ok;Koong, Mi-Kyoung;Kang, In-Soo;Yang, Kwang-Moon
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2010
  • Objective: To testify whether the increased peripheral blood natural killer (pbNK) cells fraction and their cytolytic activity could coincide with patient's history of recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) and to evaluate these factors are can be valuable diagnostic markers in RSA. Methods: Women with a history of RSA comprised the patient group (n=35). Normal fertile women, who were experienced at least one healthy term birth without history of infertility or recurrent miscarriage, were included as the healthy control group (n=15). The pbNK cells of $CD3^-/CD56^+/CD16^+$ and their cytolytic activities against K562 cells were measured by flow cytometry and the values were compared between study and control groups. Results: Proportions of pbNK cells among peripheral blood monocytes (PBMC) ($14.2{\pm}5.2$ vs. $9.4{\pm}3.7%$, p=0.002, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 7.8) was significantly higher in the patient group. The odds ratio of having RSA history was increased as 8.4 folds (59% of sensitivity, 80% of specificity, and 95% CI: 2.0 to 35.8) in patients who showed pbNK cells fraction above 12.1% which was determined as cut-off value by using ROC curve analysis. The cytolytic activities of pbNK cells which measured by three different ratio of effecter pbNK cells to target K562 cells and calculated by the percent of cytolytic K562 cells, were significantly higher in study group than that of control group (in 50:1 ratio, $48.3{\pm}19.0$ vs. $31.3{\pm}11.9%$, p=0.002; in 25:1 ratio, $37.0{\pm}18.1$ vs. $20.2{\pm}9.2%$, p<0.001; in 12.5:1 ratio, $23.5{\pm}12.7$ vs. $12.4{\pm}7.3%$, p=0.001). With the cut-off values of cytolytic activity of pbNK cells as 43.1% (50:1), 26.9% (25:1), and 17.4% (12.5:1) each, the risk of having RSA history was increased by 10.0, 11.4, and 15.0 folds in patients who had increased in each effector of pbNK to target of K562 cells ratio. Conclusion: The analysis of pbNK cells fraction and their cytolytic activity can be valuable diagnostic markers for RSA. We are going to planning the large scaled studies which include the data of obstetric outcomes in subsequent pregnancies to clarify our results of this study.

Clinical Application of Serum CEA, SCC, Cyfra21-1, and TPA in Lung Cancer (폐암환자에서 혈청 CEA, SCC, Cyfra21-1, TPA-M 측정의 의의)

  • Lee, Jun-Ho;Kim, Kyung-Chan;Lee, Sang-Jun;Lee, Jong-Kook;Jo, Sung-Jae;Kwon, Kun-Young;Han, Sung-Beom;Jeon, Young-June
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.785-795
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    • 1997
  • Background : Tumor markers have been used in diagnosis, predicting the extent of disease, monitoring recurrence after therapy and prediction of prognosis. But the utility of markers in lung cancer has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity. TPA-M is recently developed marker using combined monoclonal antibody of Cytokeratin 8, 18, and 19. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of new tumor marker, TPA-M by comparing the estabilished markers SCC, CEA, Cyfra21-1 in lung cancer. Method : An immunoradiometric assay of serum CEA, sec, Cyfra21-1, and TPA-M was performed in 49 pathologically confirmed lung cancer patients who visited Keimyung University Hospital from April 1996 to August 1996, and 29 benign lung diseases. Commercially available kits, Ab bead CEA (Eiken) to CEA, SCC RIA BEAD (DAINABOT) to SCC, CA2H (TFB) to Cyfra2H. and TPA-M (DAIICHI) to TPA-M were used for this study. Results : The mean serum values of lung cancer group and control group were $10.05{\pm}38.39{\mu}/L$, $1.59{\pm}0.94{\mu}/L$ in CEA, $3.04{\pm}5.79{\mu}/L$, $1.58{\pm}2.85{\mu}/L$ in SCC, $8.27{\pm}11.96{\mu}/L$, $1.77{\pm}2.72{\mu}/L$ in Cyfra21-1, and $132.02{\pm}209.35\;U/L$, $45.86{\pm}75.86\;U/L$ in TPA-M respectively. Serum values of Cyfra21-1 and TPA-M in lung cancer group were higher than control group (p<0.05). Using cutoff value recommended by the manufactures, that is $2.5{\mu}/L$ in CEA, $3.0{\mu}/L$ in Cyfra21-1, 70.0 U/L in TPA-M, and $2.0{\mu}/L$ in SCC, sensitivity and specificity of lung cancer were 33.3%, 78.6% in CEA, 50.0%, 89.7% in Cyfra21-1, 52.3%, 89.7% in TPA-M, 23.8%, 89.3% in SCC. Sensitivity and specificity of nonsmall cell lung cancer were 36.1%, 78.1% in CEA, 50.1%, 89.7% in Cyfra21-1, 53.1%, 89.7% in TPA-M, 33.8%, 89.3% in SCC. Sensitivity and specificity of small cell lung cancer were 25.0%, 78.5% in CEA, 50.0%, 89.6% in Cyfra21-1, 50.0%, 89.6% in TPA-M, 0%, 89.2% in SCC. Cutoff value according to ROC(Receiver operating characteristics) curve was $1.25{\mu}/L$ in CEA, $1.5{\mu}/L$ in Cyfra2-1, 35 U/L in TPA-M, $0.6{\mu}/L$ in SCC. With this cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and kappa index of Cyfra21-1 and TPA-M were better than CEA and SCC. SCC only was related with statistic significance to TNM stages, dividing to operable stages(TNM stage I to IIIA) and inoperable stages (IIIB and IV) (p<0.05). But no tumor markers showed any correlation with significance with tumor size(p>0.05). Conclusion : Serum TPA-M and Cyfra21-1 shows higher sensitivity and specificity than CEA and SCC in overall lung cancer and nonsmall cell lung cancer those were confirmed pathologically. SCC has higher specificity in nonsmall cell lung cancer. And the level of serum sec are signiticantly related with TNM staging.

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The Prognostic Role of B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성폐쇄성폐질환의 급성 악화시 예후 인자로서의 혈중 B-type Natriuretic Peptide의 역할)

  • Lee, Ji Hyun;Oh, So Yeon;Hwang, Iljun;Kim, Okjun;Kim, Hyun Kuk;Kim, Eun Kyung;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.600-610
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    • 2004
  • Background : The plasma B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) concentration increases with the degree of pulmonary hypertension in patients with chronic respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic role of BNP in the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD). Method : We selected 67 patients who were admitted our hospital because of an acute exacerbation of COPD. Their BNP levels were checked on admission at the Emergency Department. Their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups according to their in-hospital mortality. The patients' medical history, comobidity, exacerbation type, blood gas analysis, pulmonary function, APACHE II severity score and plasma BNP level were compared. Results : Multiple logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors of mortality: $FEV_1$, APACHE II score and plasma BNP level. The decedents group showed a lower $FEV_1$($28{\pm}7$ vs. $37{\pm}15%$, p=0.005), a higher APACHE II score($22.4{\pm}6.1$ vs. $15.8{\pm}4.7$, p=0.000) and a higher BNP level ($201{\pm}116$ vs. $77{\pm}80pg/mL$, p=0.000) than the sSurvivors group. When the BNP cut-off level was set to 88pg/mL using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 75% in differentiating between the survivors and decedents. On Fisher's exact test, the odds ratio for mortality was 21.2 (95% CI 2.49 to 180.4) in the patients with a BNP level > 88pg/mL. Conclusion : The plasma BNP level might be a predictor of mortality in an acute exacerbation of COPD as well as the $FEV_1$ and APACHE II score.

The Application of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Level of the Dyspneic Patients : Differentiation Between Cor Pulmonale and Left Ventricular Dysfunction (호흡곤란을 주소로 내원한 환자에서 혈청 B-type Natriuretic Peptide 검사의 유용성 : 폐성심과 좌심부전의 감별에 대하여)

  • Park, Hong-Hoon;Kim, Sehyun;Choi, Jeongeun;Kim, Kang-Ho;Cheon, Seok-Cheol;Lee, Jihyun;Lee, Yong-Gu;Kim, In-Jae;Cha, Dong-Hoon;Hong, Sang-Bum;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.320-329
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    • 2003
  • Background : The serum B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is released from the ventricles as a response to volume or pressure overload of the ventricles. A few studies have reported that the BNP measurements are useful in differentiating between heart failure and pulmonary causes in patients who visited the emergency department with dyspnea as the chief complaint. It is difficult to differentiate a right heart failure from a left heart failure in the emergency room. However, there is no report on the application of a BNP assay to differentiate in right heart failure from left heart failure. In this study, the BNP levels were measured from dyspneic patients in the emergency department to determine whether or not the BNP level would be useful in differentiating the cause of the dyspnea from right ventricular failure and left ventricular failure. Method : 89 patients who visited emergency department of the Bundang Cha Hospital with dyspnea from June 2002 to March 2003 were selected. The 29 patients from the outpatient clinics and inpatients were randomly selected as the control. Results : The BNP levels of patients in the left heart failure group were significantly different from that of the patients in the right heart failure group ($682{\pm}314$ pg/mL vs. $149{\pm}94$ pg/mL, p=0.000). When the BNP cut-off level was designated as 219 pg/mL using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 94.3%, and specificity was 92.9%. In addition, the positive predictive value was 97% and the negative predictive value was 86.7% in differentiating right heart failure from left heart failure. Conclusion : Measurements of the serum BNP levels is an accurate and rapid method that can aid in distinguishing between right heart failure and left heart failure.

Preoperative Detection of Hepatic Metastases from the colorectal Cancers: Comparison of Dual-phase CT scan, Mn-DPDP enhanced MRI, and combination of CT and MRI (대장암의 간 전이 진단: 이중시기 CT, Mn-DPDP 조영증강 MRI, 그리고 CT-MRI 종합 판독의 비교)

  • Shin, Kyung-Min;Kim, Jong-Yeol;Choi, Gyu-Seok;Kim, Hye-Jeong;Lee, Jong-Min;Chang, Yong-Min;Kim, Yong-Seon;Kang, Duk-Sik;Ryeom, Hun-Kyu
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To determine the usefulness of additional Mn-DPDP MRI for preoperative evaluation of the patients with colorectal cancers by comparison of dual-phase CT scan, Mn-DPDP enhanced MRI and combination of CT and MRI. Materials and Methods : Fifty-three colorectal cancer patients with 92 metastatic nodules underwent dualphase (arterial and portal) helical CT scan and Mn-DPDP MRI prior to surgery. The indication of MRI was presence or suspected of having metastatic lesions at CT scan and/or increased serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels (10 ng/mL or more). The diagnosis was established by the combination of findings at surgery, intraoperative ultrasonography, and histopathologic examination. Two radiologists interpreted CT, MRI, and combination of CT-MRI at discrete sessions and evaluated each lesion for location, size, and intrinsic characteristics. The lesions were divided into three groups according to their diameter; 1cm<, 1-2 cm, and >2 cm. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated using the alternative-free response receiver operating characteristic method. Detection and false positive rate were also evaluated. Results : In the lesions smaller than 1 cm, detection rate of combined CT-MRI was superior to CT or MRI alone (82%, p=0.036). The mean accuracy (Az values) of combined CT and MRI was significantly higher than that of CT in the lesions smaller than 2 cm (1 cm<, p=0.034; 1-2 cm, p=0.045). However, there was no significant difference between MRI and combined CT-MRI. The false positive rate of CT was higher than those of combined CT-MR in the lesions smaller than 1 cm (28%, p=0.023). Conclusion : Additional MRI using Mn-DPDP besides routine CT scan was helpful in differentiating the hepatic lesions (<2 cm) and could improve detection of the small hepatic metastases (<1 cm) from colorectal carcinoma.

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