• 제목/요약/키워드: RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error)

검색결과 141건 처리시간 0.025초

Evaluation of wind loads and the potential of Turkey's south west region by using log-normal and gamma distributions

  • Ozkan, Ramazan;Sen, Faruk;Balli, Serkan
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • 제31권4호
    • /
    • pp.299-309
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, wind data such as speeds, loads and potential of Muğla which is located in the southwest of Turkey were statistically analyzed. The wind data which consists of hourly wind speed between 2010 and 2013 years, was measured at the 10-meters height in four different ground stations (Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris, Köyceğiz). These stations are operated by The Turkish State Meteorological Service (T.S.M.S). Furthermore, wind data was analyzed by using Log-Normal and Gamma distributions, since these distributions fit better than Weibull, Normal, Exponential and Logistic distributions. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the coefficients of the goodness of fit (R2) were also determined by using statistical analysis. According to the results, extreme wind speed in the research area was 33 m/s at the Datça station. The effective wind load at this speed is 0.68 kN/㎡. The highest mean power densities for Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris and Köyceğiz were found to be 46.2, 1.6, 6.5 and 2.2 W/㎡, respectively. Also, although Log-normal distribution exhibited a good performance i.e., lower AD (Anderson - Darling statistic (AD) values) values, Gamma distribution was found more suitable in the estimation of wind speed and power of the region.

해운경기의 예측: 2013년 (A Forecast of Shipping Business during the Year of 2013)

  • 모수원
    • 한국항만경제학회지
    • /
    • 제29권1호
    • /
    • pp.67-76
    • /
    • 2013
  • 해운경기와 밀접한 관계를 갖는 세계 경기가 유럽재정위기와 같은 일련의 사건으로 침체국면에서 벗어나지 못하고 있어 장기적인 해운시황에 대한 우려가 커지고 있으며, BDI 건화물선 종합운임지수가 1000포인트에도 도달하지 못해 해운기업의 어려움을 가중시키고 있다. 본고는 해운경기의 불황탈피가 2013년에 가능한가를 파악하기 위해 BDI를 예측하는데 목적을 둔다. 해상운임에 영향을 미치는 변수들로 구성된 다변량모형 대신 BDI로만 구성된 단일변량모형인 자기회귀-이동평균모형과 장기순환과정을 보여주는 Hodrick-Prescott 필터 기법을 이용하여 2013년의 BDI를 예측한다. 3개의 ARIMA모형과 2개의 개입-ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 2013년에도 지속적으로 BDI가 하락하는 760과 670사이에서 움직인다는 것을 보인다. HP기법을 통한 예측은 750에서 556사이의 변동을 예상하여 ARIMA모형보다 해운경기를 더 비관적이라는 것도 밝힌다. 또한 5개의 ARIMA모형의 예측오류가 RW모형보다 낮을 뿐만 아니라 그 크기가 대단히 작아 예측치가 크게 빗나갈 가능성이 낮다는 것도 보인다.

플라즈마 공정을 이용한 고추역병균(Phytophthora capsici) 불활성화 모델의 적용 (Application of Inactivation Model on Phytophthora Blight Pathogen (Phytophthora capsici) using Plasma Process)

  • 김동석;박영식
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제24권11호
    • /
    • pp.1393-1404
    • /
    • 2015
  • Ten empirical disinfection models for the plasma process were used to find an optimum model. The variation of model parameters in each model according to the operating conditions (first voltage, second voltage, air flow rate, pH, incubation water concentration) were investigated in order to explain the disinfection model. In this experiment, the DBD (dielectric barrier discharge) plasma reactor was used to inactivate Phytophthora capsici which cause wilt in tomato plantation. Optimum disinfection models were chosen among ten models by the application of statistical SSE (sum of squared error), RMSE (root mean sum of squared error), $r^2$ values on the experimental data using the GInaFiT software in Microsoft Excel. The optimum models were shown as Log-linear+Tail model, Double Weibull model and Biphasic model. Three models were applied to the experimental data according to the variation of the operating conditions. In Log-linear+Tail model, $Log_{10}(N_o)$, $Log_{10}(N_{res})$ and $k_{max}$ values were examined. In Double Weibull model, $Log_{10}(N_o)$, $Log_{10}(N_{res})$, ${\alpha}$, ${\delta}_1$, ${\delta}_2$, p values were calculated and examined. In Biphasic model, $Log_{10}(N_o)$, f, $k_{max1}$ and $k_{max2}$ values were used. The appropriate model parameters for the calculation of optimum operating conditions were $k_{max}$, ${\alpha}$, $k_{max1}$ at each model, respectively.

유전자알고리즘을 이용한 강우강도식 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구(II): 장.단기간 구분 방법의 제시 (Parameter Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Formula Using Genetic Algorithm(II): Separation of Short and Long Durations)

  • 신주영;김태순;김수영;허준행
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
    • /
    • 제40권10호
    • /
    • pp.823-832
    • /
    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 강우강도식의 매개변수를 추정하기 위해서 다목적 유전자알고리즘의 목적함수로 RMSE와 RRMSE를 적용하여 보다 객관적인 기준으로 장 단기간을 구분하는 방법을 제시하였다. 매개변수를 추정하기 위한 장 단기간을 구분하는 방법으로는 정확도를 기준으로한 방법과 그래프상의 접점을 이용하는 방법을 적용하였으며, 기상청에서 관리하는 22개 지점에 대하여 국내에서 널리 사용되고 있는 강우강도식을 이용하여 그 적용성을 살펴보았다. 매개변수를 추정하는 방법에 있어서는 재현기간별로 매개변수를 구하는 방법의 정확도를 평가하였으며, 장 단기간을 구분하는 방법과 함께 재현기간별로 매개변수를 구하는 방법을 적용하였다. 국내에서 널리 사용되고 있는 세 가지 형태의 강우강도식 중에서 가장 높은 정확도를 얻을 수 있는 것은 허준행 등(1999)이 개발한 강우강도식인 것으로 나타났고, 기존의 선형회귀분석을 통해서 매개변수를 추정하는 것보다 다목적 유전자알고리즘을 적용한 결과가 더 높은 정확도를 보여주는 것으로 나타났다.

Validity of predictive equations for resting energy expenditure in Korean non-obese adults

  • Ndahimana, Didace;Choi, Yeon-Jung;Park, Jung-Hye;Ju, Mun-Jeong;Kim, Eun-Kyung
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
    • /
    • 제12권4호
    • /
    • pp.283-290
    • /
    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Indirect calorimetry is the gold-standard method for the measurement of resting energy expenditure. However, this method is time consuming, expensive, and requires highly trained personnel. To overcome these limitations, various predictive equations have been developed. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of predictive equations for resting energy expenditure (REE) in Korean non-obese adults. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The present study involved 109 participants (54 men and 55 women) aged between 20 and 64 years. The REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Nineteen REE equations were evaluated for validity, by comparing predicted and measured REE results. Predictive equation accuracy was assessed by determining percent bias, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE), and percentage of accurate predictions. RESULTS: The measured REE was significantly higher in men than in women (P < 0.001), but the difference was not significant after adjusting for body weight (P > 0.05). The equation developed in this study had an accuracy rate of 71%, a bias of 0%, and an RMSE of 155 kcal/day. Among published equations, the $FAO_{weight}$ equation gave the highest accuracy rate (70%), along with a bias of -4.4% and an RMSE of 184 kcal/day. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed equation provided the best accuracy in predicting REE for Korean non-obese adults. Among the previously published equations, the $FAO_{weight}$ equation showed the highest overall accuracy. Regardless, at an individual level, the equations could lead to inaccuracies in a considerable number of subjects.

다중 프레임의 SAD를 이용한 드론 속도 측정 (Estimation of Drone Velocity with Sum of Absolute Difference between Multiple Frames)

  • 남돈호;염석원
    • 융합신호처리학회논문지
    • /
    • 제20권3호
    • /
    • pp.171-176
    • /
    • 2019
  • 드론은 원거리 동영상을 효율적으로 획득할 수 있어서 활용성이 높다. 드론 운용에서 속도의 크기인 속력은 설정할 수 있지만 이동하는 방위의 정확한 값은 설정이 불가능하다. 본 논문에서는 드론에서 획득한 동영상을 이용하여 일정한 속도로 이동하는 드론의 속도를 추정한다. 기준 프레임과 표적 프레임의 Sum of Absolute Difference(SAD)를 최소로 하는 표적 프레임의 변위를 구한다. 드론의 실제 속도(Ground Truth)는 각 프레임에서 일정한 동일 지점(Matching Point)의 위치를 이용하여 계산한다. 실험에서 150m 상공에서 일정한 속력으로 이동하는 드론으로 동영상을 획득하였다. 추정한 x와 y방향의 속도와 속력의 평균 제곱근 오차(RMSE)를 구하여 제안한 방법의 신뢰성을 보였다.

Predicting blast-induced ground vibrations at limestone quarry from artificial neural network optimized by randomized and grid search cross-validation, and comparative analyses with blast vibration predictor models

  • Salman Ihsan;Shahab Saqib;Hafiz Muhammad Awais Rashid;Fawad S. Niazi;Mohsin Usman Qureshi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제35권2호
    • /
    • pp.121-133
    • /
    • 2023
  • The demand for cement and limestone crushed materials has increased many folds due to the tremendous increase in construction activities in Pakistan during the past few decades. The number of cement production industries has increased correspondingly, and so the rock-blasting operations at the limestone quarry sites. However, the safety procedures warranted at these sites for the blast-induced ground vibrations (BIGV) have not been adequately developed and/or implemented. Proper prediction and monitoring of BIGV are necessary to ensure the safety of structures in the vicinity of these quarry sites. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict BIGV using artificial neural network (ANN) at three selected limestone quarries of Pakistan. The ANN has been developed in Python using Keras with sequential model and dense layers. The hyper parameters and neurons in each of the activation layers has been optimized using randomized and grid search method. The input parameters for the model include distance, a maximum charge per delay (MCPD), depth of hole, burden, spacing, and number of blast holes, whereas, peak particle velocity (PPV) is taken as the only output parameter. A total of 110 blast vibrations datasets were recorded from three different limestone quarries. The dataset has been divided into 85% for neural network training, and 15% for testing of the network. A five-layer ANN is trained with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, Adam optimization algorithm with a learning rate of 0.001, and batch size of 32 with the topology of 6-32-32-256-1. The blast datasets were utilized to compare the performance of ANN, multivariate regression analysis (MVRA), and empirical predictors. The performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE)for predicted and measured PPV. To determine the relative influence of each parameter on the PPV, sensitivity analyses were performed for all input parameters. The analyses reveal that ANN performs superior than MVRA and other empirical predictors, andthat83% PPV is affected by distance and MCPD while hole depth, number of blast holes, burden and spacing contribute for the remaining 17%. This research provides valuable insights into improving safety measures and ensuring the structural integrity of buildings near limestone quarry sites.

Parametric Analysis of the Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Precision GPS Orbit Determination

  • Bae, Tae-Suk
    • 한국측량학회지
    • /
    • 제35권1호
    • /
    • pp.55-62
    • /
    • 2017
  • The SRP (Solar Radiation Pressure) model has always been an issue in the dynamic GPS (Global Positioning System) orbit determination. The widely used CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) model and its variants have nine parameters to estimate the solar radiation pressure from the Sun and to absorb the remaining forces. However, these parameters show a very high correlation with each other and, therefore, only several of them are estimated at most of the IGS (International GNSS Service) analysis centers. In this study, we attempted to numerically verify the correlation between the parameters. For this purpose, a bi-directional, multi-step numerical integrator was developed. The correlation between the SRP parameters was analyzed in terms of post-fit residuals of the orbit. The integrated orbit was fitted to the IGS final orbit as external observations. On top of the parametric analysis of the SRP parameters, we also verified the capabilities of orbit prediction at later time epochs. As a secondary criterion for orbit quality, the positional discontinuity of the daily arcs was also analyzed. The resulting post-fit RMSE (Root-Mean-Squared Error) shows a level of 4.8 mm on average and there is no significant difference between block types. Since the once-per-revolution parameters in the Y-axis are highly correlated with those in the B-axis, the periodic terms in the D- and Y-axis are constrained to zero in order to resolve the correlations. The 6-hr predicted orbit based on the previous day yields about 3 cm or less compared to the IGS final orbit for a week, and reaches up to 6 cm for 24 hours (except for one day). The mean positional discontinuity at the boundary of two 1-day arcs is on the level of 1.4 cm for all non-eclipsing satellites. The developed orbit integrator shows a high performance in statistics of RMSE and positional discontinuity, as well as the separations of the dynamic parameters. In further research, additional verification of the reference frame for the estimated orbit using SLR is necessary to confirm the consistency of the orbit frames.

Efficiency of occlusal and interproximal adjustments in CAD-CAM manufactured single implant crowns - cast-free vs 3D printed cast-based

  • Graf, Tobias;Guth, Jan-Frederik;Diegritz, Christian;Liebermann, Anja;Schweiger, Josef;Schubert, Oliver
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
    • /
    • 제13권6호
    • /
    • pp.351-360
    • /
    • 2021
  • PURPOSE. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of occlusal and interproximal adjustments of single implant crowns (SIC), comparing a digital cast-free approach (CF) and a protocol using 3D printed casts (PC). MATERIALS AND METHODS. A titanium implant was inserted at position of lower right first molar in a typodont. The implant position was scanned using an intraoral scanner and SICs were fabricated accordingly. Ten crowns (CF; n = 10) were subject to a digital cast-free workflow without any labside occlusal and interproximal modifications. Ten other identical crowns (PC) were adjusted to 3D printed casts before delivery. All crowns were then adapted to the testing model, simulating chair-side adjustments during clinical placement. Adjustment time, quantity of adjustments, and contact relationship were assessed. Data were analyzed using SPSS software (P < .05). RESULTS. Median and interquartile range (IQR) of clinical adjustment time was 02:44 (IQR 00:45) minutes in group CF and 01:46 (IQR 00:21) minutes in group PC. Laboratory and clinical adjustment time in group PC was 04:25 (IQR 00:59) minutes in total. Mean and standard deviation (±SD) of root mean squared error (RMSE) of quantity of clinical adjustments was 45 ± 7 ㎛ in group CF and 34 ± 6 ㎛ in group PC. RMSE of total adjustments was 61 ± 11 ㎛ in group PC. Quality of occlusal contacts was better in group CF. CONCLUSION. Time effort for clinical adjustments was higher in the cast-free protocol, whereas quantity of modifications was lower, and the occlusal contact relationship was found more favourable.

해수유동모델 검증을 위한 오차평가방법 비교 연구 (Skill Assessments for Evaluating the Performance of the Hydrodynamic Model)

  • 김태윤;윤한삼
    • 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
    • /
    • 제14권2호
    • /
    • pp.107-113
    • /
    • 2011
  • 해수유동모델의 검증 및 평가를 위해 적용되는 또는 적용가능한 10종류의 모델 오차평가방법 - 네가지의 정량적 평가방법(절대평균오차, 평균제곱근 오차, 상대적 절대평균오차, 백분율모델오차)과 여섯가지의 정성적 평가방법(상관계수, 신뢰지수, 일치지수, 모델효율성, 비용함수, 잔여량계수) - 을 소개하고, 실제 조위, 유속, 염분관측치와 3차원 곡선형 모델(CH3D)에서 구해진 플로리다 하구에서의 수치해에 이들 모델 오차평가방법들을 적용하였다. 조위 및 유속평가시 절대평균오차, 평균제곱근 오차, 상대적 절대평균오차, 상관계수, 일치지수, 모델효율성, 비용함수, 잔여량계수 등이 적합하였다. 그리고 염분평가시 절대평균오차, 평균제곱근 오차, 상대적 절대평균오차, 백분율모델오차, 상관계수, 신뢰지수, 비용함수, 잔여량계수 등의 사용이 타당하였다. 정량/정성적 평가방법들이 서로 유사한 평가경향을 보여 줌으로써, 상호간의 신뢰성도 보여 주었다. 다양한 모델 오차평가방법을 통하여 계산된 평가값을 토대로, 본 연구에서는 조위, 유속, 염분이 잘 재현된 해수유동모델의 평가범위를 제시하였다. 조위의 경우 상대적 절대평균 오차는 10%이내, 상관계수는 0.95이상, 일치지수는 0.98이상, 모델효율성은 0.93이상, 비용함수는 0.21이내이며, 유속의 경우 상대적 절대평균오차는 20%이내, 상관계수는 0.7이상, 일치지수는 0.8이상, 모델효율성은 0.5이상, 비용 함수는 0.5이내이며, 염분의 경우 상대적 절대평균오차와 백분율모델오차는 10%이내, 상관계수는 0.9이상, 신뢰지수는 1.15이내, 비용함수는 0.1이내 이다.