• Title/Summary/Keyword: RCP6.0

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Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park (SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구)

  • Kim, Jisu;Kim, Minseok;Cho, Youngchan;Oh, Hyunjoo;Lee, Choonoh
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

The Relationships between the Microorganisms and the Red-Colored Phenomena of Ginseng (Panax ginseng C.A. Meyer) (인삼뿌리의 적변현상과 근권미생물)

  • 윤길영;양덕조
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2001
  • To clarify a significant difference between red-colored phenomena (RCP) and microbes isolated from rhizosphere soil of healthy ginseng (HES) and red-colored ginseng (RCS), we have examined growth and cellulase activities of the microbes according to pH variation and iron status. The soil microbes could not grow at pH 3.0 on the YEB medium. The growth of bacterium isolated from RCG at pH from 5.0 to 9.0 showed small differences and the growth of bacterium HES was lower than that of others. The growth of bacteria from RCS and surface soil (SUS) at pH 5.0 were also lower than that of pH 7.0 and pH 9.0. However, the bacteria isolated from red-colored ginseng (RCG) and RCS are able to grow on the medium contained 2 mM Fe$\^$3+/ at pH 3.0. Furthermore, the growth of bacterium from RCG increased about two times in the medium contained iron at pH 7.0 compared with minus iron. The cellulase activity of isolated bacteria increased two times in the medium contained 2 mM Fe$\^$3+/ compared with minus iron. The activity of extra-cellular cellulase was higher by one hundred times than that of intracellular level. The cellulase activity of the bacterium from RCS at pH 5.0 was higher by two times than that of pH 7.0. Especially, intracellular activity of the bacterium from RCS on the medium contained 2mM Fe$\^$3+/ increased about six to seven times compared with control (minus iron). Also, extra-cellular activity increased about eleven to twelve times compared with control. These results indicate that the soil microbes seem to be related iron redoxidation by proton extrusion and with cell wall digestion by secreted cellulase.

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A STUDY ON THE MANDIBULAR ECCENTRIC MOVEMENT OF THE SUBJECTS WITH TMJ CLICK IN HORIZONTAL PLANE (측두악관절 잡음자의 수평면상 하악 편위 운동에 관한 연구)

  • Na, Kyung-Seon;Kang, Dong-Wan
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 1993
  • Although pantograph has been used to investigate whether the determinents of the mandibular movement were possible contributing factors of TMJ click, there was the problems to understand the role of tooth morphology upon the occurrence of click because of using appliance without tooth contacts. There Were advantages to evaluate the effects of tooth morphology upon the mandibular movements, because intraoral tracing device(Functiograph$^{(R)}$) had been obtained maintaining occlusal contact between the upper and lower natural teeth during mandibular movement. The purpose of this study was to record the mandibular eccentric movement quantitatively performed in 20 adult control subjects and 20 adult subjects with TMJ click and to investigate the effects of occlusion upon the occurrence of TMJ click. The obtained results were as follows : 1. The average ICP-P distance was $3.07{\pm}0.73mm$ in subjects with TMJ click, $2.14{\pm}0.85mm$ in control subjects. There was a statistical significance between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects(P<0.001). 2. The average ICP-P distance was $3.07{\pm}1.14mm$ in subjects with TMJ click, $2.61{\pm}0.96mm$ in control subjects. There was a statistical significance between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects(P<0.05). 3. The average distance of right and left lateral movement was not statistically significant between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects. 4. The average lateral displacement from midline during RCP was $0.75{\pm}0.54mm$ subjects with TMJ click, $0.16{\pm}0.17mm$ in control subjects. There was a statistical significance between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects(P<0.001). 5. The average lateral displacement from midline during protrusive movement was $0.88{\pm}0.54mm$ in subjects with TMJ click, $0.20{\pm}0.23mm$ in control subjects. There was a statistical significance between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects(P<0.001). 6. The average angle of right and left lateral movement was $144.2{\pm}20.20^{\circ}$ in subjects with TMJ click, $138.15{\pm}20.09^{\circ}$ in control subjects. There was a statistical significance between subjects with TMJ click and control subjects(P<0.05).

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Projection in future drought of South Korea on SSP scenarios using SPI and SPEI (SPI와 SPEI을 이용한 SSP 시나리오에 대한 미래 가뭄 예측)

  • Song, Young Hoon;Choi, Hyuk Su;Chung, Eun Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.400-400
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    • 2021
  • 다양한 기후 연구에서는 지속적인 기후의 변화로 인한 기후 위기는 전지구적으로 아열대화와 사막화를 전망하고 있으며, 우리나라도 기후 변화로 인하여 담수 자원에 악영향을 미치고 있다. 대부분 가뭄은 기본적으로 강수량 부족에 의해 발생되며, 기상변수와 높은 상관관계를 나타내고 있다. 따라서 가뭄을 정량화하기 위한 연구들이 빈번하게 수행되며 다양한 가뭄지수들이 개발되고 있다. 기상학적 가뭄지수인 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)와 SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)는 가뭄 연구에 대표적으로 사용되는 지표이며 특히, SPEI는 강수와 증발산 사이의 물수지에 대한 평균 조건을 고려할 수 있는 것이 장점이다. 미래 가뭄 연구는 CMIP(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)의 미래 시나리오를 이용하여 연구가 수행되고 있는데 새롭게 개발된 SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 시나리오는 미래의 완화와 적응을 기반으로 5개의 시나리오로 구분되며, 사회 및 경제적 요소를 함께 내포하고 있어 현실적인 미래 기후를 예측할 수 있다. 과거 미래 가뭄 연구는 CMIP5의 미래 시나리오인 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 사용한 연구가 대부분이다. 따라서 새롭게 개발된 SSP 시나리오를 이용하여 미래 가뭄 예측 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구는 SSP 시나리오의 중간 단계인 SSP2-4.5와 가장 높은 단계인 SSP5-8.5의 기후 요소를 토대로 사용하여 우리나라 미래 기간의 SPI와 SPEI를 4개(3-, 6-, 9-, 12-month)의 기간으로 구분하여 산정하였다. 시·공간적 분석을 하기 위해 가까운 미래(2025-2060)와 먼 미래(2065-2100)로 구분하였으며, 격자별로 가뭄의 심도와 발생 면적을 분석하였다. 연구 결과로 SPI의 근 미래 극한 가뭄(<-2.0)은 높았으나, 먼 미래는 오히려 전국적으로 가뭄이 줄어들었다. SPEI는 일부 지역에서 적당한 건조상태(-1.5 ~ -1.0)가 산정되었으나, 대부분 극한 가뭄이 발생하였다.

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Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

  • Park, Seon Uk;Koo, Kyung Ah;Seo, Changwan;Hong, Seungbum
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.310-317
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    • 2017
  • Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

Assessment of Environmental Flow Impacts for the Gosam Reservoir According to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 고삼저수지의 환경유량 영향평가)

  • Yoon, Tae Hyung;Kang, Ho Young;Kim, Jong Suk;Moon, Young Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2016
  • This study conducted a quantitative assessment on the environmental flows associated with climate change in the Gosam Reservoir, Korea. The application of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario has found that the peak value of High Flow Pulses has increased by 36.0 % on average compared to historical data (2001 ~ 2010), which is likely to cause disadvantage on flood control and management but the increase in peak value is expected to make a positive impact on resolving the issue of green algal blooms, promoting vegetation in surrounding areas and encouraging spawning and providing habitats for native species by releasing a larger amount of landslides as well as organic matters than the past. However, the decreasing pattern of the peak value of High Flow Pulses is quite apparent with the trend of delay on the occurrence time of peak value, necessitating a long-term impact analysis. The peak value of Large Floods shows a clear sign of decrease against climate change scenario, which is expected to lead to changes in fish species caused by degraded quality of water and decreasing habitats. A quicker occurrence of Small Floods is also expected to make an impact on the growth cycle of aquatic plants, and the reduction in occurrence frequency of Extreme Low Flows is to contribute to increasing the population of and raising the survival rate of native fish, greatly improving the aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study are expected to be useful to establish the water environment and ecological system in adapting or responding to climate change.

Fabrication and Characterization of Dye-sensitized Solar Cells based on Anodic Titanium Oxide Nanotube Arrays Sensitized with Heteroleptic Ruthenium Dyes

  • Shen, Chien-Hung;Chang, Yu-Cheng;Wu, Po-Ting;Diau, Eric Wei-Guang
    • Rapid Communication in Photoscience
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.16-19
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    • 2014
  • Anodic self-organized titania nanotube (TNT) arrays have a great potential as efficient electron-transport materials for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC). Herewith we report the photovoltaic and kinetic investigations for a series of heteroleptic ruthenium complexes (RD16-RD18) sensitized on TNT films for DSSC applications. We found that the RD16 device had an enhanced short-circuit current density ($J_{SC}/mAcm^{-2}=15.0$) and an efficiency of power conversion (${\eta}=7.2%$) greater than that of a N719 device (${\eta}=7.1%$) due to the increasing light-harvesting and the broadened spectral features with thiophene-based ligands. However, the device made of RD17 (adding one more hexyl chain) showed smaller $J_{SC}(14.1mAcm^{-2})$ and poorer ${\eta}(6.8%)$ compare to those of RD16 due to smaller amount of dye-loading and less efficient electron injection for the RD17 device than for the RD16 device. For the RD18 dye (adding one more thiophene unit and one more hexyl chain), we found that the device showed even lower $J_{SC}(13.2mAcm^{-2}) $ that led to a poorest device performance (${\eta}=6.2%$) for the RD18 device. These results are against to those obtained from the same dyes sensitized on $TiO_2$ nanoparticle films and they can be rationalized according to the electron transport kinetics measured using the methods of charge extraction and transient photovoltage decays.

Investigating the future changes of extreme precipitation indices in Asian regions dominated by south Asian summer monsoon

  • Deegala Durage Danushka Prasadi Deegala;Eun-Sung Chung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.174-174
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    • 2023
  • The impact of global warming on the south Asian summer monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. This study aims to investigate the future changes of the precipitation extremes during pre-monsoon and monsoon, across this region in a more organized regional structure. The study area is divided into six major divisions based on the Köppen-Geiger's climate structure and 10 sub-divisions considering the geographical locations. The future changes of extreme precipitation indices are analyzed for each zone separately using five indices from ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices); R10mm, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and PRCPTOT. 10 global climate model (GCM) outputs from the latest CMIP6 under four combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are used. The GCMs are bias corrected using nonparametric quantile transformation based on the smoothing spline method. The future period is divided into near future (2031-2065) and far future (2066-2100) and then the changes are compared based on the historical period (1980-2014). The analysis is carried out separately for pre-monsoon (March, April, May) and monsoon (June, July, August, September). The methodology used to compare the changes is probability distribution functions (PDF). Kernel density estimation is used to plot the PDFs. For this study we did not use a multi-model ensemble output and the changes in each extreme precipitation index are analyzed GCM wise. From the results it can be observed that the performance of the GCMs vary depending on the sub-zone as well as on the precipitation index. Final conclusions are made by removing the poor performing GCMs and by analyzing the overall changes in the PDFs of the remaining GCMs.

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Dynamic response of a laminated hybrid composite cantilever beam with multiple cracks & moving mass

  • Saritprava Sahoo;Sarada Prasad Parida;Pankaj Charan Jena
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.87 no.6
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    • pp.529-540
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    • 2023
  • A novel laminated-hybrid-composite-beam (LHCB) of glass-epoxy infused with flyash and graphene is constructed for this study. The conventional mixture-rule and constitutive-relationship are modified to incorporate filler and lamina orientation. Eringen's non-local-theory is used to include the filler effect. Hamilton's principle based on fifth-order-layer-wise-shear-deformation-theory is applied to formulate the equation of motion. The analogous shear-spring-models for LHCB with multiple-cracks are employed in finite-element-analysis (FEA). Modal-experimentations are conducted (B&K-analyser) and the findings are compared with theoretical and FEA results. In terms of dimensionless relative-natural-frequencies (RNF), the dynamic-response in cantilevered support is investigated for various relative-crack-severities (RCSs) and relative-crack-positions (RCPs). The increase of RCS increases local-flexibility in LHCB thus reductions in RNFs are observed. RCP is found to play an important role, cracks present near the end-support cause an abrupt drop in RNFs. Further, multiple cracks are observed to enhance the nonlinearity of LHCB strength. Introduction of the first to third crack in an intact LHCB results drop of RNFs by 8%, 10%, and 11.5% correspondingly. Also, it is demonstrated that the RNF varies because of the lamina-orientation, and filler addition. For 0° lamina-orientation the RNF is maximum. Similarly, it is studied that the addition of graphene reduces weight and increases the stiffness of LHCB in contrast to the addition of flyash. Additionally, the response of LHCB to moving mass is accessed by appropriately modifying the numerical programs, and it is noted that the successive introduction of the first to ninth crack results in an approximately 40% to 120% increase in the dynamic-amplitude-ratio.

Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.863-874
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.