• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.114-126
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• 2017

Many studies on climate change and its impacts use a single climate scenario. However, one climate scenario may not accurately predict the potential impacts of climate change. We estimated temperature and precipitation changes by 2070 using 17 of the CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios for three spatial domains: the Asian continent, six East Asia countries, and South Korea. For South Korea, the range of increased minimum temperature was lower than for the ranges of the larger regions, but the range of projected future precipitation was higher. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $1.3^{\circ}C$ and $5.2^{\circ}C$, and the change in precipitation ranged from - 42.4 mm (- 3.2%) and + 389.8 mm (+ 29.6%) for South Korea. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $2.3^{\circ}C$ and $8.5^{\circ}C$ for East Asia countries and was between $2.1^{\circ}C$ and $7.4^{\circ}C$ for the Asian continent, and the change in precipitation ranged from 28.8 mm (+ 6.3%) and 156.8 mm (+ 34.3%) for East Asia countries and from 32.4 mm (+ 5.5%) and 126.2 mm (+ 21.3%) for the Asian continent. We suggest climate change studies in South Korea should not use a single GCM or only an ensemble climate model's output and we recommend to use GFDL-CM3 and INMCM4 GCMs to bracket projected change for use in other national climate change studies to represent the range of projected future climate conditions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.185-185
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• 2019

Sustaining future wheat production is challenged by anthropogenically forced climate warming and drying led by increased concentration of greenhouse gases all around the globe. Warming stresses, originating from the elevated $CO_2$ concentration, are continuously reported to have negative impacts on wheat growth and yield. Yet, elevated $CO_2$ concentration, despite being disparagingly blamed for promoting warming, is also associated with a phenomenon called $CO_2$ enrichment; in which wheat yield can improve due to the enhanced photosynthesis rates and less water loss through transpiration. The conflicting nature of climate warming and $CO_2$ enrichment and their interplay can have specific implications under different environments. It is established form the field and simulation studies that the two contrasting phenomena would act severely in their own respect under arid and semi-arid environments. Wheat is a dietary staple for masses in Pakistan. The country's wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more from irrigated agricultural lands, primarily lying under arid to semi-arid environments, to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. This work comprehensively examines the warming impacts over wheat yield and water productivity (WP), with and without the inclusion of $CO_2$ enrichment, under semi-arid environment of Punjab which is the largest agricultural province of Pakistan. Future wheat yields and WPs were simulated by FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0. The model was run using the bias-correction climate change projections up to 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. Wheat yield and WPs decreased without considering the $CO_2$ enrichment effects owing to the elevated irrigation demands and accelerated evapotranspiration rates. The results suggested that $CO_2$ enrichment could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s (2021-2050); however, it might not withhold the negative climate warming impacts during the 2060s (2051-2080). Furthermore, 10 - 20 day backward shift in sowing dates could also help ease the constraints imposed by climate warming over wheat yields and WPs. Although, $CO_2$ enrichment showed promises to counteract the adverse climate warming impacts but the interactions between climate warming and $CO_2$ concentrations were quite uncertain and required further examination.