• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권1호
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• pp.45-55
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• 2017

Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management and crop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fields which requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production. A water footprint concept is an indicator which shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green, blue, grey water. This study analyzed the change trend of water footprint of paddy rice under the climate change. The downscaled climate data from HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Depending on agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0, which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The means of water footprint were projected increase by 55 % (2020s), 51 % (2050s) and 48 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $767m^2/ton$ in Suwon. In case of Jeonju, total water footprint was projected to increase by 46 % (2020s), 45 % (2050s), 12 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $765m^2/ton$. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishing long-term policies for agricultural water resources.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.106-117
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R²) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R² was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R² was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.51-64
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• 2022

Along with the urbanization, the risk of urban flooding due to climate change is increasing. Flood regulation, one of the ecosystem services, is implemented in the different level of function of flood risk mitigation by the type of ecosystem such as forests, arable land, wetlands etc. Land use changes due to development pressures have become an important factor in increasing the vulnerability by flash flood. This study has conducted evaluating the urban flood regulation service using InVEST UFRM(Urban Flood Risk Model). As a result of the simulation, the potential water retention by ecosystem type in the event of a flash flood according to RCP 4.5(10 year frequency) scenario was 1,569,611 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 907,706 tons in agricultural areas, 1,496,105 tons in forested areas, 831,705 tons in grasslands, 1,021,742 tons in wetlands, and 206,709 tons in bare areas, the water bodies was estimated to be 38,087 tons. In the case of more severe 100-year rainfall, 1,808,376 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 1,172,505 tons in agricultural areas, 2,076,019 tons in forests, 1,021,742 tons in grasslands, 47,603 tons in wetlands, 238,363 tons in bare lands, and 52,985 tons in water bodies. The potential economic damage from flood runoff(100 years frequency) is 122,512,524 thousand won in residential areas, 512,382,410 thousand won in commercial areas, 50,414,646 thousand won in industrial areas, 2,927,508 thousand won in Infrastructure(road), 8,907 thousand won in agriculture, Total of assuming a runoff of 50 mm(100 year frequency) was estimated at 688,245,997 thousand won. In a conclusion. these results provided an overview of ecosystem functions and services in terms of flood control, and indirectly demonstrated the possibility of using the model as a tool for policy decision-making. Nevertheless, in future research, related issues such as application of models according to various spatial scales, verification of difference in result values due to differences in spatial resolution, improvement of CN(Curved Number) suitable for the research site conditions based on actual data, and development of flood damage factors suitable for domestic condition for the calculation of economic loss.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.57-67
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• 2020

본 연구는 최근 기후변화로 인해 피해가 증가하고 있는 소나무를 대상으로 고온 및 고농도 CO₂ 환경에 인위적으로 건조 스트레스를 주어 질소 시비에 따른 생리적 반응과 생물량 변화 특성을 구명하고자 수행되었다. 토양수분은 고온처리에서 가장 빨리 감소하여 수목의 건조 스트레스를 제공하는 것으로 나타났다. 결과적으로 토양수분이 가장 빨리 감소한 고온처리에서 순광합성율과 기공전도도 모두 감소하였다. 생리적 반응의 경우, 무관수 초기에는 질소가 시비되는 모든 처리구에서 대조구 보다 높은 경향을 보였으나 건조 스트레스 기간이 길어짐에 따라 질소 시비 효과는 나타나지 않았다. 고사율은 고온처리에서 빠르게 진행되었으며 고농도 CO₂ 농도 환경에서는 평균적으로 21.5% 오래 생존하였다. 생물량의 경우 질소 시비와 CO₂ 시비효과가 뿌리에서 무관수로 인한 건조 스트레스가 주는 억제 효과를 완화시켜 부위별·총 생물량 증가에 영향을 준 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 산림생태계에 끼칠 수 있는 영향을 정량적으로 구명함으로서 기후변화에 대응하여 산림을 효율적으로 관리하는데 필수적인 자료를 활용하고, 향후 미기상 조건에 다른 산림생태 예측모델 활용에 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.