• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2013

In this paper, we predicted sea-level rise for RCP 4scenarios(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). To calculate sea-level rise, a semi-empirical method was used and it needs atmospheric temperature rise for each scenario. According to the results, the sea-level has been rising steadily in all scenarios. By 2050 the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios was within 0.08 m, but its difference was showed more than 0.5 m in 2100. The values of sea-level rise for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.87 m, 1.21 m, 1.02 m, 1.36 m, respectively. In the case of RCP 8.5, the slope of atmospheric temperature rise since 2060 was very steep compared to the other scenarios so that the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios will be much larger after 2100. Estimated by a simple approximation, the maximum difference of sea-level rise can be more than 1.2 m in 2120.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.541-554
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• 2014

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and $4.6^{\circ}C$ in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about $0.3mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP4.5 scenario and $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The $2^{nd}$ mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above $30^{\circ}C$ per year ($DAY_{TX30}$) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above $20mm\;day^{-1}$ per year ($DAY_{PR20}$) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.89-99
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• 2018

This study analyzed the change of the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin using the results of 26 CMIP5 GCMs based on AR5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the target watershed. The simulation was performed during 2010~2016 as the reference year and during 2010~2099 as the analysis period. Bias correction of input data such as precipitation and air temperature were conducted for the reference period of 2006~2016. Results were analyzed for 3 different periods, 2025s (2010~2040), 2055s (2041~2070), and 2085s (2071~2099). It demonstrated that the change of dam inflow gradually increases 9.5~15.9 % for RCP 4.5 and 13.3~29.8 % for RCP 8.5. The change of evapotranspiration gradually increases 1.6~8.6 % for RCP 4.5 and 1.5~8.5 % for RCP8.5.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.247-247
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• 2015

Global Climate Model (GCM) is too coarse to apply at a basin scale. The spatial downcsaling is needed to used to permit the assessment of the hydrological changes of a basin. Furthermore, temporal downscaling is required to obtain hourly precipitation to analyze a small or medium basin because only few or several hours are used to determine the peak flows after it rains. In the current study, the spariotemporal distribution of downscaled hourly precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over South Korea is presented as well as its implications over hydrologica responses. Mean hourly precipitation significantly increases over the southern part of South Korea, especially during the morning time, and its increase becomes lower at later times of day in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, this increase cannot be propagated to the mainland due to the mountainous areas in the southern part of the country. Furthermore, the hydrological responses employing a distributed rainfall-runoff model show that there is a significant increase in the peak flow for the RCP8.5 scenario with a slight decrease for the RCP4.5 scenario. The current study concludes that the employed temporal downscaling method is suitable for obtaining the hourly precipitation data from daily GCM scenarios. In addition, the rainfall runoff simulation through the downscaled hourly precipitation is useful for investigating variations in the hydrological responses as related to future scenarios.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.27-43
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• 2019

This study applied the LANDIS-II model to the forest vegetation of the study area in Yeongdong-gun, Korea to identify climate effects on ecosystems of forest vegetation. The main purpose of the study is to examine the long-term changes in forest aboveground biomass(AGB) under three different climate change scenarios; The baseline climate scenario is to maintain the current climate condition; the RCP 4.5 scenario is a stabilization scenario to employ of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; the RCP 8.5 scenario is increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time representative with 936ppm of $CO_2$ concentration by 2100. The vegetation survey and tree-ring analysis were conducted to work out the initial vegetation maps and data for operation of the LANDIS model. Six types of forest vegetation communities were found including Quercus mongolica - Pinus densiflora community, Quercus mongolica community, Pinus densiflora community, Quercus variabilis-Quercus acutissima community, Larix leptolepis afforestation and Pinus koraiensis afforestation. As for changes in total AGB under three climate change scenarios, it was found that RCP 4.5 scenario featured the highest rate of increase in AGB whereas RCP 8.5 scenario yielded the lowest rate of increase. These results suggest that moderately elevated temperatures and $CO_2$ concentrations helped the biomass flourish as photosynthesis and water use efficiency increased, but huge increase in temperature ($above+4.0^{\circ}C$) has resulted in the increased respiration with increasing temperature. Consequently, Species productivity(Biomass) of trees decrease as the temperature is elevated drastically. It has been confirmed that the dominant species in all scenarios was Quercus mongolica. Like the trends shown in the changes of total AGB, it revealed the biggest increase in the AGB of Quercus mongolica under the RCP 4.5 scenario. AGB of Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis decreased in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios after 2050 but have much higher growth rates of the AGB starting from 2050 under the baseline scenario. Under all scenarios, the AGB of coniferous species was eventually perished in 2100. In particular they were extinguished in early stages of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This is because of natural selection of communities by successions and the failure to adapt to climate change. The results of the study could be expected to be effectively utilized to predict changes of the forest ecosystems due to climate change and to be used as basic data for establishing strategies for adaptation climate changes and the management plans for forest vegetation restoration in ecological restoration fields.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.73-82
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• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.65-73
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• 2016

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.35-41
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• 2012

The paddy rice consumptive use in the six plains of the Korean peninsula was projected with changing climate under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. High resolution climate data for the baseline (1961-1990) was obtained from the International water management institute (IWMI) and future high resolution climate projection was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Reference evapotranspiration (ET) was calculated by using Hargreaves equation. The results of this study showed that the average annual mean temperature would increase persistently in the future. Temperatures were projected to increase more in RCP8.5 than those in RCP4.5 scenario. The rice consumptive use during the growing period was projected to increase slightly in the 2020s and then more significantly in the 2050s and 2080s. It showed higher values for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. The rice consumptive use after transplanting in the study areas would increase by 2.2 %, 5.1 % and 7.2 % for RCP4.5 and 3.0 %, 7.6 %, and 13.3 % for RCP8.5, in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline value of 534 mm. The results demonstrated the effects of climate change on rice consumptive use quite well, and can be used in the future agricultural water planning in the Korean peninsula.