• Title/Summary/Keyword: R-Squared

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A Study on the Factors Affecting the Arson (방화 발생에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Bak, Woo-Sung;Lee, Su-Kyung
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2014
  • This study derives the factors which affect the occurrence of arson from statistical data (population, economic, and social factors) by multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression analysis applies to 4 forms of functions, linear functions, semi-log functions, inverse log functions, and dual log functions. Also analysis respectively functions by using the stepwise progress which considered selection and deletion of the independent variable factors by each steps. In order to solve a problem of multiple regression analysis, autocorrelation and multicollinearity, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and the Durbin-Watson coefficient were considered. Through the analysis, the optimal model was determined by adjusted Rsquared which means statistical significance used determination, Adjusted R-squared of linear function is scored 0.935 (93.5%), the highest of the 4 forms of function, and so linear function is the optimal model in this study. Then interpretation to the optimal model is conducted. As a result of the analysis, the factors affecting the arson were resulted in lines, the incidence of crime (0.829), the general divorce rate (0.151), the financial autonomy rate (0.149), and the consumer price index (0.099).

Applications of Discrete Wavelet Analysis for Predicting Internal Quality of Cherry Tomatoes using VIS/NIR Spectroscopy

  • Kim, Ghiseok;Kim, Dae-Yong;Kim, Geon Hee;Cho, Byoung-Kwan
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.48-54
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: This study evaluated the feasibility of using a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method as a preprocessing tool for visible/near-infrared spectroscopy (VIS/NIRS) with a spectroscopic transmittance dataset for predicting the internal quality of cherry tomatoes. Methods: VIS/NIRS was used to acquire transmittance spectrum data, to which a DWT was applied to generate new variables in the wavelet domain, which replaced the original spectral signal for subsequent partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis and prediction modeling. The DWT concept and its importance are described with emphasis on the properties that make the DWT a suitable transform for analyzing spectroscopic data. Results: The $R^2$ values and root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of calibration and prediction models for the firmness, sugar content, and titratable acidity of cherry tomatoes obtained by applying the DWT to a PLS regression with a set of spectra showed more enhanced results than those of each model obtained from raw data and mean normalization preprocessing through PLS regression. Conclusions: The developed DWT-incorporated PLS models using the db5 wavelet base and selected approximation coefficients indicate their feasibility as good preprocessing tools by improving the prediction of firmness and titratable acidity for cherry tomatoes with respect to $R^2$ values and RMSEs.

Evaluation of Corn Production Based on Different Climate Scenarios

  • Twumasi, George Blay;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.518-518
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    • 2016
  • Agriculture is the lifeblood of the economy in Ghana, employs about 42% of the population work force and accounts for 30% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Corn (maize) is the major cereal crop grown as staple food under rain fed conditions, covers over 92% of the total agricultural area, and contributes 54% of the caloric intake. Issues of hunger and food insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. The climate changes are expected to affect corn production in Ghana. This study evaluated variations of corn yields based on different climate conditions of rain-fed area in the Dangbe East District of Ghana. AquaCrop model has been used to simulate corn growing cycles in study area for this purpose. The main goal for this study was to predict yield of corn using selected climatic parameters from 1992 to 2013 using different climate scenarios. The Model was calibrated and validated using observed field data, and the simulated grain yields matched well with observed values for the season under production giving an R squared (R2)of 0.93 and Nash-Sutcliff Error(NSE) of 0.21. Study results showed that rainfall reduction in the range of -5% to -20% would reduce the yield from 1.315ton/ha to 0.421ton/ha (-21. 3%) whereas increasing temperature from 1% to 7% would result in the maximum yield reduction of -20.6% (1.315 to 1.09 ton/ha.). On the other hand, increasing rainfall from 5-20% resulted in yield increment of 68% (1.315-2.209 ton/ha) and decreasing temperature produce 7% increase in yield ( 1.315 to 1.401ton/ha). These results provide useful information to adopt strategies by the Government of Ghana and farmers for improving national food security under climate change.

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The f0 distribution of Korean speakers in a spontaneous speech corpus

  • Yang, Byunggon
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2021
  • The fundamental frequency, or f0, is an important acoustic measure in the prosody of human speech. The current study examined the f0 distribution of a corpus of spontaneous speech in order to provide normative data for Korean speakers. The corpus consists of 40 speakers talking freely about their daily activities and their personal views. Praat scripts were created to collect f0 values, and a majority of obvious errors were corrected manually by watching and listening to the f0 contour on a narrow-band spectrogram. Statistical analyses of the f0 distribution were conducted using R. The results showed that the f0 values of all the Korean speakers were right-skewed, with a pointy distribution. The speakers produced spontaneous speech within a frequency range of 274 Hz (from 65 Hz to 339 Hz), excluding statistical outliers. The mode of the total f0 data was 102 Hz. The female f0 range, with a bimodal distribution, appeared wider than that of the male group. Regression analyses based on age and f0 values yielded negligible R-squared values. As the mode of an individual speaker could be predicted from the median, either the median or mode could serve as a good reference for the individual f0 range. Finally, an analysis of the continuous f0 points of intonational phrases revealed that the initial and final segments of the phrases yielded several f0 measurement errors. From these results, we conclude that an examination of a spontaneous speech corpus can provide linguists with useful measures to generalize acoustic properties of f0 variability in a language by an individual or groups. Further studies would be desirable of the use of statistical measures to secure reliable f0 values of individual speakers.

Contribution analysis of carcass traits and seasonal effect on auction price for Hanwoo steers

  • Kang, Tae Hun;Cho, Seong-Keun;Seo, Jakyeom;Kim, Myunghoo;Kim, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.461-469
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study was to analyze the contribution of carcass traits (backfat thickness, eye muscle area, carcass weight and marbling score) and the season at slaughter to the price (auction and market) using squared semi-partial correlation. The season at slaughter (summer expressed as season_2, autumn as season_3, and winter as season_4) were added into the estimation as dummy variables, and spring was set as a default variable. In this study, the carcass grades of 22,298 Hanwoo steers slaughtered from 2012 to 2017 were used to performmultiple regression analysis. The rankings of the contribution of the carcass traits and the seasons at slaughter to the auction prices were in the order of marbling score (68.63%), season_4 (11.88%), backfat thickness (10.45%), eye muscle area (6.11%), season_3 (2.19%), season_2 (0.45%) and carcass weight (0.28%). (R-square of the regression = 0.4101). The rankings of the contribution to the total prices were in the order of carcass weight (51.74%), marbling score (32.12%), season_4 (6.04%), backfat thickness (5.54%), eye muscle area (3.22%), season_3 (1.14%), and season_2 (0.19%). (R-Square of the regression = 0.6486). As a result, season_3 and season_4 had a negative effect on the auction price and total price. Because of seasonal event such as Korean Thanksgiving Day and Korean New Year's Day on season_3 and season_4, much supply was needed to meet the high demand. Thus, the seasonal effect at slaughter could be another factor to be cosideredin when considering of slaughter or breeding.

Prediction Model for Specific Cutting Energy of Pick Cutters Based on Gene Expression Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization (유전자 프로그래밍과 개체군집최적화를 이용한 픽 커터의 절삭비에너지 예측모델)

  • Hojjati, Shahabedin;Jeong, Hoyoung;Jeon, Seokwon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.651-669
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    • 2018
  • This study suggests the prediction model to estimate the specific energy of a pick cutter using a gene expression programming (GEP) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Estimating the performance of mechanical excavators is of crucial importance in early design stage of tunnelling projects, and the specific energy (SE) based approach serves as a standard performance prediction procedure that is applicable to all excavation machines. The purpose of this research, is to investigate the relationship between UCS and BTS, penetration depth, cut spacing, and SE. A total of 46 full-scale linear cutting test results using pick cutters and different values of depth of cut and cut spacing on various rock types was collected from the previous study for the analysis. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) associated with the conventional Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) method is more than two times larger than the MSE generated by GEP-PSO algorithm. The $R^2$ value associated with the GEP-PSO algorithm, is about 0.13 higher than the $R^2$ associated with MLR.

Data-driven prediction of compressive strength of FRP-confined concrete members: An application of machine learning models

  • Berradia, Mohammed;Azab, Marc;Ahmad, Zeeshan;Accouche, Oussama;Raza, Ali;Alashker, Yasser
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.83 no.4
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    • pp.515-535
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    • 2022
  • The strength models for fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-confined normal strength concrete (NC) cylinders available in the literature have been suggested based on small databases using limited variables of such structural members portraying less accuracy. The artificial neural network (ANN) is an advanced technique for precisely predicting the response of composite structures by considering a large number of parameters. The main objective of the present investigation is to develop an ANN model for the axial strength of FRP-confined NC cylinders using various parameters to give the highest accuracy of the predictions. To secure this aim, a large experimental database of 313 FRP-confined NC cylinders has been constructed from previous research investigations. An evaluation of 33 different empirical strength models has been performed using various statistical parameters (root mean squared error RMSE, mean absolute error MAE, and coefficient of determination R2) over the developed database. Then, a new ANN model using the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) has been proposed based on the experimental database that portrayed the highest performance as compared with the previous models with R2=0.92, RMSE=0.27, and MAE=0.33. Therefore, the suggested ANN model can accurately capture the axial strength of FRP-confined NC cylinders that can be used for the further analysis and design of such members in the construction industry.

Estimating the unconfined compression strength of low plastic clayey soils using gene-expression programming

  • Muhammad Naqeeb Nawaz;Song-Hun Chong;Muhammad Muneeb Nawaz;Safeer Haider;Waqas Hassan;Jin-Seop Kim
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • The unconfined compression strength (UCS) of soils is commonly used either before or during the construction of geo-structures. In the pre-design stage, UCS as a mechanical property is obtained through a laboratory test that requires cumbersome procedures and high costs from in-situ sampling and sample preparation. As an alternative way, the empirical model established from limited testing cases is used to economically estimate the UCS. However, many parameters affecting the 1D soil compression response hinder employing the traditional statistical analysis. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) is adopted to develop a prediction model of UCS with common affecting soil properties. A total of 79 undisturbed soil samples are collected, of which 54 samples are utilized for the generation of a predictive model and 25 samples are used to validate the proposed model. Experimental studies are conducted to measure the unconfined compression strength and basic soil index properties. A performance assessment of the prediction model is carried out using statistical checks including the correlation coefficient (R), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the relatively squared error (RSE), and external criteria checks. The prediction model has achieved excellent accuracy with values of R, RMSE, MAE, and RSE of 0.98, 10.01, 7.94, and 0.03, respectively for the training data and 0.92, 19.82, 14.56, and 0.15, respectively for the testing data. From the sensitivity analysis and parametric study, the liquid limit and fine content are found to be the most sensitive parameters whereas the sand content is the least critical parameter.

Building of cyanobacteria forecasting model using transformer (Transformer를 이용한 유해남조 발생 예측 모델 구축)

  • Hankyu Lee;Jin Hwi Kim;Seohyun Byeon;Jae-Ki Shin;Yongeun Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.515-515
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    • 2023
  • 팔당호는 북한강과 남한강이 합류하여 생성된 호소로 수도인 서울과 수도권인 경기도 동부지역의 물 공급을 담당하는 중요한 상수원이다. 이러한 팔당호에서 유해남조 발생은 상수원수 활용과 직접적으로 연관되어 있어 신속하고 정확한 관리 및 예측이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 안전한 상수원 활용을 위해, 딥러닝 기법을 이용하여 유해남조 사전 예측 모델을 구축하고자 하였다. 모델 입력 변수는 2012년부터 2021년까지 10년 동안의 주간 팔당호 수질(수온, DO, BOD, COD, Chl-a, TN, TP, pH, 전기전도도, TDN, NH4N, NO3N, TDP, PO4P, 부유물질)과 수문(유입량, 총방류량), 기상 정보(평균기온, 최저기온, 최고기온, 일 강수량, 평균풍속, 평균 상대습도, 합계일조량), 그리고 북한강과 남한강 유입지점의 남조 세포 수를 사용하였다. 모델 출력 변수는 수질, 수문, 기상 요인으로 인한 남조의 성장 발현 시기를 고려하여 1주 후의 댐앞 남조 세포수를 사용하였다. 사용한 딥러닝 기법은 최근 주목받고 있는 Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT)를 사용하였다. 모델 훈련용 데이터와 테스트용 데이터는 각각 8:2의 비율로 나누었으며, 검증용 데이터는 훈련용 데이터 내에서 훈련 데이터와 검증 데이터를 6:4 비율로 분배하였다. Lookback은 5로 설정하였고, 이는 주단위 데이터로 구성된 데이터세트의 특성을 반영한 것이다. 모델의 성능은 실측값과 예측값을 토대로 R-square와 Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)를 계산하여 평가하였다. 모델학습은 총 154번 반복 진행되었으며, 이 중 성능이 가장 준수한 시점은 54번째 반복 시점으로 훈련손실 대비 검증손실이 가장 양호한 값을 나타냈다(훈련손실:0.443, 검증손실 0.380). R-square는 훈련단계에서 0.681, 검증단계에서 0.654였고, 테스트 단계에서 0.606으로 산출되었다. RMSE는 훈련단계에서 0.614(㎍/L), 검증단계에서 0.617(㎍/L), 테스트 단계에서 0.773(㎍/L)였다. 모델에 사용한 데이터세트가 주간 데이터라는 특성을 고려하면, 소규모 데이터를 사용하였음에도 본 연구에서 구축한 모델의 성능은 양호하다고 평가할 수 있다. 향후 연구에서 데이터세트를 보강하고 모델을 업데이트한다면, 모델의 성능을 더욱더 개선할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Density map estimation based on deep-learning for pest control drone optimization (드론 방제의 최적화를 위한 딥러닝 기반의 밀도맵 추정)

  • Baek-gyeom Seong;Xiongzhe Han;Seung-hwa Yu;Chun-gu Lee;Yeongho Kang;Hyun Ho Woo;Hunsuk Lee;Dae-Hyun Lee
    • Journal of Drive and Control
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2024
  • Global population growth has resulted in an increased demand for food production. Simultaneously, aging rural communities have led to a decrease in the workforce, thereby increasing the demand for automation in agriculture. Drones are particularly useful for unmanned pest control fields. However, the current method of uniform spraying leads to environmental damage due to overuse of pesticides and drift by wind. To address this issue, it is necessary to enhance spraying performance through precise performance evaluation. Therefore, as a foundational study aimed at optimizing drone-based pest control technologies, this research evaluated water-sensitive paper (WSP) via density map estimation using convolutional neural networks (CNN) with a encoder-decoder structure. To achieve more accurate estimation, this study implemented multi-task learning, incorporating an additional classifier for image segmentation alongside the density map estimation classifier. The proposed model in this study resulted in a R-squared (R2) of 0.976 for coverage area in the evaluation data set, demonstrating satisfactory performance in evaluating WSP at various density levels. Further research is needed to improve the accuracy of spray result estimations and develop a real-time assessment technology in the field.