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Evaluation of Reproductive Growth in a Mature Stand of Korean Pine under Simulated Climatic Condition (국지기후가 잣나무 성숙임분의 생식생장에 미치는 영향분석)

  • 김일현;신만용;김영채;전상근
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.185-198
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to reveal the effects of local climatic conditions on reproductive growth in a mature stand of Korean white pine based on climatic estimates. For this, the reproductive growth such as production and characteristics of cone and seed were first measured and summarized for seven years from 1974 to 1980. The local climatic conditions in the study site were also estimated by both a topoclimatological method and a spatial statistical technique. The local climatic conditions were then correlated with and regressed on the growth factors to reveal the relationships between the climatic estimates and the reproductive growth. Average number of conelet formation per tree showed highly negative correlation with some climatic variables related to minimum temperature in the year of flower bud differentiation. Especially, the most significant negative correlation were found between average of the minimum temperature for June and July of flower bud differentiation year and the number of conelet formation. There was no significant correlation between the number of cone production and climatic variables. However, total precipitation from December of the flowering year to February of the cone production year showed the most high correlation (r=0.6036) with the number of cone production. It was found that significant climatic variables affecting the amount of cone drop and cone drop percentage were the sum of cloudy days from June of the flowering year to August of the cone production year. Positive correlation was significantly recognized between the average weight of empty seed per cone and total precipitation from December of the flowering year to February of the cone production year. For the percentage of empty seed, five climatic variables among 19 variables were significantly correlated at 10% level. The average weight of a cone showed negative correlation with total precipitation from June of the flowering year to August of the cone production year. It was also found that average weight of a seed had highly negative correlation with total precipitation from December of the flowering year to February of the cone production year. The average weight of cone coat was negatively correlated with two climatic variables derived from clear days, which are sum of clear days from November of the flowering year to March of the cone production year and sum of clear days from December of the flowering year to February of the cone production year. On the other hand, it showed positive correlation with mean temperature of May in the flowering year. The exactly same results were obtained in correlation analysis for the percentage of cone coat.

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An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.