• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative precipitation estimation

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A Study on the Algorithm for Estimating Rainfall According to the Rainfall Type Using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Data (정지궤도 기상위성 자료를 활용한 강우유형별 강우량 추정연구)

  • Lee Eun-Joo;Suh Myoung-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.117-120
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    • 2006
  • Heavy rainfall events are occurred exceedingly various forms by a complex interaction between synoptic, dynamic and atmospheric stability. As the results, quantitative precipitation forecast is extraordinary difficult because it happens locally in a short time and has a strong spatial and temporal variations. GOES-9 imagery data provides continuous observations of the clouds in time and space at the right resolution. In this study, an power-law type algorithm(KAE: Korea auto estimator) for estimating rainfall based on the rainfall type was developed using geostationary meteorological satellite data. GOES-9 imagery and automatic weather station(AWS) measurements data were used for the classification of rainfall types and the development of estimation algorithm. Subjective and objective classification of rainfall types using GOES-9 imagery data and AWS measurements data showed that most of heavy rainfalls are occurred by the convective and mired type. Statistical analysis between AWS rainfall and GOES-IR data according to the rainfall types showed that estimation of rainfall amount using satellite data could be possible only for the convective and mixed type rainfall. The quality of KAE in estimating the rainfall amount and rainfall area is similar or slightly superior to the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service's auto-estimator(NESDIS AE), especially for the multi cell convective and mixed type heavy rainfalls. Also the high estimated level is denoted on the mature stage as well as decaying stages of rainfall system.

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The Evaluation of Hydraulic and Hydrology Effects on Methods of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (정량적 강수추정기법에 따른 수리·수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Son, Ahlong;Yoon, Seong-sim;Choi, Sumin;Lee, Byongju;Choi, Young Jean
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.640-640
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    • 2015
  • 2010년과 2011년 서울에서 발생한 집중호우와 2014년 부산에서 발생한 집중호우의 발생으로 막대한 재산상의 피해와 사상자를 냈다. 2010년 9월 21일에 발생한 집중호우는 1908년 관측시작이래 가장 많은 비가 내린 것으로 기록되었으며 주거지 4,727호, 상가 1,164호, 공장 126동 등이 침수되고 13시를 기준으로 강서지점의 경우 시간당 98.5mm의 기록적인 강우를 기록하였으나, 관악지점은 5.5mm에 그쳐 두 지점간의 시간당 강우량의 편차가 약 200배 가까이 차이가 나는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 최근 도시지역에서 국지성 집중호우가 증가하고 있으며 지역별 강우 편차가 크고 이에 따라 침수피해발생 여부도 지역에 따라 달라진다. 강수의 공간적 분포와 그로 인한 침수해석은 도시돌발홍수 예경보 시스템에 있어 무엇보다도 중요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 도시지역 돌발홍수 예경보 시스템 구축을 위한 정량적 강수추정 QPE(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation)기법에 따른 수리 수문학적 영향을 평가하는 것이다. 정량적 강수추정을 위해 AWS, SKP, 레이더 자료를 활용하여 250m의 해상도를 가지도록 크리깅을 적용하였다: QPE 1은 34개의 AWS의 지점우량을 지구통계학적 기법 중의 하나인 크리깅을 이용하여 산정한 기법, QPE 2는 AWS와 156개의 SKP의 강우데이터를 크리깅을 이용하여 산정한 기법, QPE 3는 광덕산 레이더를 이용한 기법, QPE 4는 AWS, SKP, 광덕산 레이더 자료를 조건부 합성한 기법이다. 월류량을 산정하기 위해 도시유출해석모형인 SWMM을 강남역 일대를 대상으로 구축하고 우수관로 시스템으로 유입되지 못한 노면류(Surface flow)를 함께 고려하였다. 침수해석을 위해서는 DHM모델을 적용하였으며 2013년 7월 기간에 발생한 호우에 대하여 분석을 수행하였다. 비교수행을 위해서 인접한 서초 AWS와 강남 AWS의 지점강우량도 함께 고려하였으며 모의결과를 국가 재난관리 정보 시스템(NMDS)에 침수피해가 확인된 가옥 및 빌딩 정보와 일치여부를 적합도로 산정하였다. 산정된 적합도를 통하여 정량적 강수추정기법에 따른 수리?수문학적 영향을 평가하였다. 실제 침수흔적정보와 비교 결과, QPE 2와 QPE4가 가장 적합도가 높았으며 이에 따라 고밀도의 관측망의 구성이 도시지역 침수해석결과에도 적합할 것으로 판단된다.

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Quantitative Approach of Soil Prediction using Environment Factors in Jeju Island (환경요인을 이용한 제주도 토양예측의 정량적 연구)

  • Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Seo, Hyeong-Ho;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Song, Kwan-Chul;Hyun, Hae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.360-369
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    • 2012
  • Parent material, climate, topography, biological factors, and time are considered five soil forming factors. This study was conducted to elucidate the effects of several environment factors on soil distribution using quantitative analysis method, called soil series estimation algorithm in the soils of Jeju Island. We selected environment factors including mean temperature, annual precipitation, surface geology, altitude, slope, aspect, altitude difference within 1 $km^2$ area, topographic wetness index, distance from the shore, distance from the mountain peak, and landuse for a quantitative analysis. We analyzed the ranges of environment factors for each soil series and calculated probabilities of possible-soil series for certain locations using estimation algorithm. The algorithm can predicted exact soil series on the soil map with correctness of 33% on $1^{st}$ ranking, 62% within $2^{nd}$ ranking, 74% within $5^{th}$ ranking after estimating using randomly extracted environment factors. In predicted soil map, soil sequences of Entisols-Alfisols-Andisols on northern area and Alfisols-Ultisols-Andisols on western area can be suggested along increasing altitude. More modeling studies will be needed for the genesis process of soils in Jeju Island.

Quantitative Estimation of Precipitation Scavenging and Wind Dispersion Contributions for PM10 and NO2 Using Long-term Air and Weather Monitoring Database during 2000~2009 in Korea (장기간 대기오염 및 기상측정 자료 (2000~2009)를 이용한 PM10과 NO2의 강수세정 기여율과 바람분산 기여율의 정량적 추정연구)

  • Lim, Deuk-Yong;Lee, Tae-Jung;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.325-347
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    • 2012
  • Long-term air and weather data monitored during the period of 2000 to 2009 were analyzed to quantitatively estimate the precipitation scavenging and wind dispersion contributions of ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ in Korea. Both air pollutants and meteorological data had been respectively collected from 120 stations by the Ministry of Environment and from 20 weather stations by the Korea Meteorological Administrations in all parts of Korea. To stochastically identify the relation between a meteorological factor and an air pollutant, we initially defined the SR (scavenging ratio) and the DR (dispersion ratio) to separately calculate the precipitation and wind speed effects on the removal of a specific air pollutant. We could then estimate the OSC (overall scavenging contribution) and the ODC (overall dispersion contribution) with considering sectoral precipitation and wind speed probability density distributions independently. In this study, the SRs for both $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were generally increased with increasing the amounts of precipitation and then the OSCs for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were estimated by 22.3% and 15.7% on an average in Korea, respectively. However, the trend of the DR was quite different from that of SR. The DR for $PM_{10}$ was increased with increasing wind speed up to 2.5 m/s and further the DR for $NO_2$ showed a minimum in the range of $1<WS{\leq}1.5$. The ODCs for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were estimated by 14.9% and 1.0% in Korea, respectively. Finally, we have also provided an interesting case study observed in Seoul.

Biomass, Primary Nutrient and Carbon Stock in a Sub-Himalayan Forest of West Bengal, India

  • Shukla, Gopal;Chakravarty, Sumit
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.12-23
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    • 2018
  • Quantitative information on biomass and available nutrients are essential for developing sustainable forest management strategies to regulate atmospheric carbon. An attempt was made at Chilapatta Reserve Forest in Duars region of West Bengal to quantify its above and below ground carbon along with available "N", "P" and "K" in the soil. Stratified random nested quadrats were marked for soil, biomass and litter sampling. Indirect or non-destructive procedures were employed for biomass estimation. The amount of these available nutrients and organic carbon quantified in soil indicates that the forest soil is high in organic carbon and available "K" and medium in phosphorus and nitrogen. The biomass, soil carbon and total carbon (soil C+C in plant biomass) in the forest was 1,995.98, 75.83 and $973.65Mg\;ha^{-1}$. More than 90% of the carbon accumulated in the forest was contributed by the trees. The annual litter production of the forest was $5.37Mg\;ha^{-1}$. Carbon accumulation is intricately linked with site quality factors. The estimated biomass of $1,995.98Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ clearly indicates this. The site quality factor i.e. tropical moist deciduous with optimum availability of soil nutrients, heavy precipitation, high mean monthly relative humidity and optimum temperature range supported luxuriant growth which was realized as higher biomass accumulation and hence higher carbon accumulated.

Estimation of Movement Amount of River Floating Debris Based on Effective Rainfall and Flow Rate (유효강우량과 유량에 따른 하천 부유쓰레기 이동량 산출)

  • Jang, Seon-Woong;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2017
  • Along with effluence of non-point pollution source, continuous precipitation due to rainy season or localized heavy rain can also be a good reason for increase of flow rate. And if the water level is going up due to the increase, floating debris around rivers and streams will move because of increased flow velocity. However, currently, there are no studies which perform quantitative calculation on movement of floating debris by analyzing amount of rainfall and flow rate in both domestic and abroad. Thus, the present study calculated amount of movement of floating debris based on moving route monitoring results according to changes of effective rainfall and flow rate that are obtained by using SCS-CN method.

Simulation of Distributed Flood using the KMA-Radar Rainfall Data and Rain gauge Data (기상청 레이더 강우자료와 지상강우자료를 이용한 내린천 유역의 분포형 홍수유출 모의)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Hong, Seung-Jin;Bae, Young-Hye
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1021-1026
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 물리적 기반의 완전분포 모형인 $Vflo^{TM}$ 모형을 이용하여 강원도 인제군에 위치한 내린천 유역을 대상으로 광덕산 레이더 자료와 지상강우 자료를 이용하여 분포형 홍수유출모의를 실시하였다. $Vflo^{TM}$모형을 구성하기 위해서 GIS 지형공간 자료가 사용하였다. 유역의 하천 배수망과 각 격자에서의 경사를 구하기 위하여 250m 격자 크기의 DEM을 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 2006년 7월 14일부터 2006년 7월 17일까지의 관측 레이더 강우자료(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, QPE), 보정된 레이더 강우자료, 지상 강우량자료를 동일한 조건의 $Vflo^{TM}$모형에 입력하여 관측 유출량과 비교함으로써 기상청레이더 자료와 조건부합성기법으로 보정된 레이더 자료의 수문모형의 입력 자료로써의 타당성을 비교하고자 하였다. 광덕산 레이더 강우의 경우 관측치보다 상당히 과소 추정되는 모습을 보여주었고, 지상강우와 조건부합성기법으로 보정된 레이더 강우의 경우 실제 관측치와 비슷한 유출을 나타내었지만, 조건부 합성기법(Kim, 2008)을 이용하여 레이더강우와 지상강우를 합성한 보정 레이더 강우자료가 가장 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 이를 통해 기상레이더 강우자료와 지상강우자료를 합성할 경우 충분히 레이더 강우를 이용하여 홍수모형의 입력자료로써 수문학적 활용성이 있음을 확인하였다.

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Investigate the effect of spatial variables on the weather radar adjustment method for heavy rainfall events by ANFIS-PSO

  • Oliaye, Alireza;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.142-142
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    • 2022
  • Adjusting weather radar data is a prerequisite for its use in various hydrological studies. Effect of spatial variables are considered to adjust weather radar data in many of these researches. The existence of diverse topography in South Korea has increased the importance of analyzing these variables. In this study, some spatial variable like slope, elevation, aspect, distance from the sea, plan and profile curvature was considered. To investigate different topographic conditions, tried to use three radar station of Gwanaksan, Gwangdeoksan and Gudeoksan which are located in northwest, north and southeast of South Korea, respectively. To form the suitable fuzzy model and create the best membership functions of variables, ANFIS-PSO model was applied. After optimizing the model, the correlation coefficient and sensitivity of adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) based on spatial variables was calculated to find how variables work in adjusted QPE process. The results showed that the variable of elevation causes the most change in rainfall and consequently in the adjustment of radar data in model. Accordingly, the sensitivity ratio calculated for variables shows that with increasing rainfall duration, the effects of these variables on rainfall adjustment increase. The approach of this study, due to the simplicity and accuracy of this method, can be used to adjust the weather radar data and other required models.

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Long-term Streamflow Prediction Using ESP and RDAPS Model (ESP와 RDAPS 수치예보를 이용한 장기유량예측)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Jeong, Chang-Sam;Kim, Joo-Cheol;Hwang, Man-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.967-974
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    • 2011
  • Based on daily time series from RDAPS numerical weather forecast, Streamflow prediction was simulated and the result of ESP analysis was implemented considering quantitative mid- and long-term forecast to compare the results and review applicability. The result of ESP, ESP considering quantitative weather forecast, and flow forecast from RDAPS numerical weather forecast were compared and analyzed with average observed streamflow in Guem River Basin. Through this process, the improvement effect per method was estimated. The result of ESP considering weather information was satisfactory relatively based on long-term flow forecast simulation result. Discrepancy ratio analysis for estimating accuracy of probability forecast had similar result. It is expected to simulate more accurate flow forecast for RDAPS numerical weather forecast with improved daily scenario including time resolution, which is able to accumulate 3 hours rainfall or continuous simulation estimation.

돌발홍수 모니터링 및 예측 모형을 이용한 예측(F2MAP)태풍 루사에 의한 양양남대천 유역의 돌발홍수 모니터링

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Hong, Jun-Bum;Choi, Kyu-Hyun;Yoon, Seok-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1145-1149
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    • 2006
  • The typhoon Rusa passed through the Korean peninsula from the west-southern part to the east-northern part in the summer season of 2002. The flash flood due to the Rusa was occurred over the Korean peninsula and especially the damage was concentrated in Kangnung, Yangyang, Kosung, and Jeongsun areas of Kangwon-Do. Since the latter half of the 1990s the flash flood has became one of the frequently occurred natural disasters in Korea. Flash floods are a significant threat to lives and properties. The government has prepared against the flood disaster with the structural and nonstructural measures such as dams, levees, and flood forecasting systems. However, since the flood forecasting system requires the rainfall observations as the input data of a rainfall-runoff model, it is not a realistic system for the flash flood which is occurred in the small basins with the short travel time of flood flow. Therefore, the flash flood forecasting system should be constructed for providing the realistic alternative plan for the flash flood. To do so, firstly, Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) Model must be developed suitable to Korea terrain. In this paper, We develop the FFMP model which is based on GIS, Radar techniques and hydro-geomorphologic approaches. We call it the F2MAP model. F2MAP model has three main components (1) radar rainfall estimation module for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), (2) GIS Module for the Digital terrain analysis, called TOPAZ(Topographic PArametiZation), (3) hydrological module for the estimation of threshold runoff and Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). For the performance test of the model developed in this paper, F2MAP model applied to the Kangwon-Do, Korea, where had a severe damage by the Typhoon Rusa in August, 2002. The result shown that F2MAP model is suitable for the monitoring and the prediction of flash flood.

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