• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2001

Present-day rules and regulations for the design and construction of ships are almost without exemption of a prescriptive and deterministic nature. Often it is argued that this situation is far from ideal; it does no right to the advances, which have been made during the past decades in engineering tools in marine technology, both in methodology and in computational power. Within IMO this has been realized for some time and has resulted in proposals to use Formal Safety Assessment(FSA) as a tool to improve and to modernize the rule making process. The present paper makes use of elements of the FSA methodology, but instead of working towards generic regulations or requirements, a Risk Assessment Approach, not unlike a 'safety case'; valid for a certain ship or type of ship is worked out. Delft University of Technology investigated the application of safely assessment procedures in ship design, in co-operation with Anthony Veder Shipowners and safety experts from Safely Service Center BV. The ship considered is a semi-pressurized-fully refrigerated LPG carrier. On the basis of the assumption that a major accident occurs, various accident, scenarios were considered and assessed, which would impair the safety of the carrier. In a so-called Risk Matrix, in which accident frequencies versus the consequence of the scenarios are depicted, the calculated risks all appeared lo be in the ALARP('as low as reasonable practicable') region. A number of design alternatives were compared, both on safety merits and cost-effectiveness. The experience gained with this scenario-based approach will be used to establish a set of general requirements for safety assessment techniques in ship design. In the view that assessment results will be most probably presented in a quasi-quantified manner, the requirements are concerned with uniformity of both the safety assessment. These requirements make it possible that valid comparison between various assessment studies can be made. Safety assessment, founded on these requirements, provides a validated and helpful source of data during the coming years, and provides naval architects and engineers with tools experience and data for safety assessment procedures in ship design. However a lot of effort has to be spent in order to make the methods applicable in day-to-day practice.

• BMB Reports
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.209-216
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• 2015

Stress is now recognized as a universal premorbid factor associated with many risk factors of various chronic diseases. Acute stress may induce an individual's adaptive response to environmental demands. However, chronic, excessive stress causes cumulative negative impacts on health outcomes through "allostatic load". Thus, monitoring the quantified levels of long-term stress mediators would provide a timely opportunity for prevention or earlier intervention of stressrelated chronic illnesses. Although either acute or chronic stress could be quantified through measurement of changes in physiological parameters such as heart rate, blood pressure, and levels of various metabolic hormones, it is still elusive to interpret whether the changes in circulating levels of stress mediators such as cortisol can reflect the acute, chronic, or diurnal variations. Both serum and salivary cortisol levels reveal acute changes at a single point in time, but the overall long-term systemic cortisol exposure is difficult to evaluate due to circadian variations and its protein-binding capacity. Scalp hair has a fairy predictable growth rate of approximately 1 cm/month, and the most 1 cm segment approximates the last month's cortisol production as the mean value. The analysis of cortisol in hair is a highly promising technique for the retrospective assessment of chronic stress. [BMB Reports 2015; 48(4): 209-216]

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.126-135
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• 2000

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an engineering analysis method to identify possible contributors to the risk from a nuclear power plant and now it has become a standard tool in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants. PSA consists of three phases named as Level 1, 2 and 3. Level 2 PSA, mainly focused in this paper, uses a step-wise approach. At first, plant damage states (PDSs) are defined from the Level 1 PSA results and they are quantified. Containment event tree (CET) is then constructed considering the physico-chemical phenomena in the containment. The quantification of CET can be assisted by a decomposition event tree (DET). Finally, source terms are quantitatively characterized by the containment failure mode. As the main benefit of PSA is to provide insights into plant design, performance and environmental impacts, including the identification of the dominant risk contributors and the comparison of options for reducing risk, this technique is expected to be applied to the industrial safety area.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.253-257
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• 2013

Exposure assessment for three major active ingredients used for humidifier disinfectants, polyhexamethylene guanidine (PHMG), oligo(2-(2-ethoxy)ethoxyethyl guanidinium chloride (PGH), and 5-chloro-2-methylisothiazol-3(2H)-one/2-methylisothiazol-3(2H)-one (CMIT/MIT) mixture, was conducted in a bedroom using an air sampler for a refined risk assessment. The experimental site was selected to reflect consumer exposure conditions. Aerosols formed by a humidifier were sampled during 8 hr at 7.5 L/min. Absorbed PHMG and PGH by the sampler were quantified using a spectrophotometric method, and high performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet detection was used for CMIT/MIT. Three exposure scenarios were assumed for adding humidifier disinfectants to the humidifier water at 1, 2, and 10 times the volume recommended by the product suppliers, and the humidifier was on at its maximum rate of producing aerosols in order to consider reasonable worst-cases. The sampled mass of PHMG and PGH ranged 200 to $2,800{\mu}g$ and 140 to $1,900{\mu}g$, respectively, under different exposure conditions, whereas the absorbed mass of CMIT/MIT was barely detected at the detection limit of 0.11/0.29 mg/L, only at 10 times the recommended level. The resulting risk quotients for PHMG and PGH ranged 1,400 to 20,000 and 1,000 to 13,000, indicating that health risks could be significant. For CMIT/MIT mixture, risk quotients were much smaller than estimated by assuming that they are conservative in the indoor environment, probably due to oxidative reactions. The refined exposure assessment presented here may provide a useful tool for assessing risks posed by active ingredients in spray-type biocidal products.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.92-102
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• 2013

A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.89-94
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• 2013

Diatoms have become an integral part of the UK's freshwater monitoring strategy over the past two decades, mostly in response to increasingly stringent European Union (EU) legislation. The use of diatoms is based on strong correlations between diatom assemblages and environmental variables, and from knowledge of the "expected" (= "reference") state of each river. The nationwide overview of the ecological health of rivers this gives allows those stretches of rivers which fail to meet EU criteria to be identified. This, in turn, allows appropriate remediation measures to be planned. Because diatom assemblages vary in space and time, even within a single water body, effective use of diatoms requires a consistent approach in order to minimise uncertainty. This includes the use of methods which comply with European Standards, a training and accreditation scheme for analysts, and a suite of quality assurance methods. Those aspects of uncertainty that cannot be readily controlled have been quantified and all estimates of ecological status are accompanied by the appropriate "confidence of class" and "risk of misclassification". This, in turn, helps planners prioritise those locations which are most likely to benefit from remediation.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.329-340
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• 2011

The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.2034-2046
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• 2023

Industrial control systems in nuclear facilities are facing increasing cyber threats due to the widespread use of information and communication equipment. To implement cyber security programs effectively through the RG 5.71, it is necessary to quantitatively assess cyber risks. However, this can be challenging due to limited historical data on threats and customized Critical Digital Assets (CDAs) in nuclear facilities. Previous works have focused on identifying data flows, the assets where the data is stored and processed, which means that the methods are heavily biased towards information security concerns. Additionally, in nuclear facilities, cyber threats need to be analyzed from a safety perspective. In this study, we use the system theoretic process analysis to identify system-level threat scenarios that could violate safety constraints. Instead of quantifying the likelihood of exploiting vulnerabilities, we quantify Security Control Measures (SCMs) against the identified threat scenarios. We classify the system and CDAs into four consequence-based classes, as presented in NEI 13-10, to analyze the adversary impact on CDAs. This allows for the ranking of identified threat scenarios according to the quantified SCMs. The proposed framework enables stakeholders to more effectively and accurately rank cyber risks, as well as establish security and response strategies.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.172-178
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• 2014

In terms of an accident management, the cases causing severe core damage need to be analyzed and arranged systematically for an easy access to the results since the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident. The objectives of this paper are to explain how to identify the plant response and cope with its vulnerabilities using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) quantified results and severe accident database SARDB(Severe Accident Risk Data Bank) based on sequences analysis results. Although PSA has been performed for the Korean Standard Power Plants (KSNPs), and that it considered the necessary sequences for an assessment of the containment integrity. The developed Database (DB) system includes a graphical display for a plant and equipment status, previous research results by a knowledge-based technique, and the expected plant behaviour. The plant model used in this paper is oriented to the cases of loss of coolant accident (LOCA) is be used as a training simulator for a severe accident management.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.47-55
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• 1998

In this paper, authors try to assess the marine traffic environment from the viewpoint of the degree of congestion. First, the marine traffic flow simulation is carried out to get the information related to the assessment. The simulation is performed based on the wide investigation of marine traffic environment and some statistical methods. Then the degree of congestion is reasoned by using the reasoning methods of the degree of collision risk made to develop collision avoidance system. The quantified degree of congestion reasoned by this method provides much information needed to the design and the evaluation of marine traffic environment.