• 제목/요약/키워드: Quality of Predictions

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Species Distribution Modeling of Endangered Mammals for Ecosystem Services Valuation - Focused on National Ecosystem Survey Data - (생태계 서비스 가치평가를 위한 멸종위기 포유류의 종분포 연구 - 전국자연환경조사 자료를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Jaeuk;Jung, Huicheul;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2014
  • The provided habitat of many services from natural capital is important. But because most ecosystem services tools qualitatively evaluated biodiversity or habitat quality, this study quantitatively analyzed those aspects using the species distribution model (MaxEnt). This study used location point data of the goat(Naemorhedus caudatus), marten(Martes flavigula), leopard cat(Prionailurus bengalensis), flying squirrel(Pteromys volans aluco) and otter(Lutra lutra) from the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey. Input data utilized DEM, landcover classification maps, Forest-types map and digital topographic maps. This study generated the MaxEnt model, randomly setting 70% of the presences as training data, with the remaining 30% used as test data, and ran five cross-validated replicates for each model. The threshold indicating maximum training sensitivity plus specificity was considered as a more robust approach, so this study used it to conduct the distribution into presence(1)-absence(0) predictions and totalled up a value of 5 times for uncertainty reduction. The test data's ROC curve of endangered mammals was as follows: growing down goat(0.896), otter(0.857), flying squirrel(0.738), marten(0.725), and leopard cat(0.629). This study was divided into two groups based on habitat: the first group consisted of the goat, marten, leopard cat and flying squirrel in the forest; and the second group consisted of the otter in the river. More than 60 percent of endangered mammals' distribution probability were 56.9% in the forest and 12.7% in the river. A future study is needed to conduct other species' distribution modeling exclusive of mammals and to develop a collection method of field survey data.

Virtual Environments for Medical Training: Soft tissue modeling (의료용 훈련을 위한 가상현실에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.372-377
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    • 2007
  • For more than 2,500 years, surgical teaching has been based on the so called "see one, do one, teach one" paradigm, in which the surgical trainee learns by operating on patients under close supervision of peers and superiors. However, higher demands on the quality of patient care and rising malpractice costs have made it increasingly risky to train on patients. Minimally invasive surgery, in particular, has made it more difficult for an instructor to demonstrate the required manual skills. It has been recognized that, similar to flight simulators for pilots, virtual reality (VR) based surgical simulators promise a safer and more comprehensive way to train manual skills of medical personnel in general and surgeons in particular. One of the major challenges in the development of VR-based surgical trainers is the real-time and realistic simulation of interactions between surgical instruments and biological tissues. It involves multi-disciplinary research areas including soft tissue mechanical behavior, tool-tissue contact mechanics, computer haptics, computer graphics and robotics integrated into VR-based training systems. The research described in this paper addresses the problem of characterizing soft tissue properties for medical virtual environments. A system to measure in vivo mechanical properties of soft tissues was designed, and eleven sets of animal experiments were performed to measure in vivo and in vitro biomechanical properties of porcine intra-abdominal organs. Viscoelastic tissue parameters were then extracted by matching finite element model predictions with the empirical data. Finally, the tissue parameters were combined with geometric organ models segmented from the Visible Human Dataset and integrated into a minimally invasive surgical simulation system consisting of haptic interface devices and a graphic display.

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Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

  • Miranda, Tiago;Dias, Daniel;Pinheiro, Marisa;Eclaircy-Caudron, Stephanie
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.153-171
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    • 2015
  • The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the "Bois de Peu" tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Modeling of the Powertrain System and the Vehicle Body for the Analysis of the Driving Comfortability (승차감 해석을 위한 동력전달계와 차량계의 모델링)

  • Park, Jin-Ho;Lee, Jang-Mu;Jo, Han-Sang;Gong, Jin-Hyeong;Park, Yeong-Il
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.4 s.175
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    • pp.926-936
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    • 2000
  • Actual and strict definition of the shift quality for the powertrain system equipped an automatic transmission must be understood through the acceleration change of the vehicle body, which the driver directly feels as a shift shock. For this reason, it is necessary to concurrently analyze the characteristics of the powertrain system and the vehicle body. This paper presents the mathematical model of the vehicle body, which is based on the equivalent lumped system, to append to the developed model of the powertrain system. The concept of tire slip is also introduced for the experimental relationship between tire/road and driving force. Using the developed dynamic simulation programs, shift transients characteristics are analyzed. Theoretical results are compared with experimental ones from real car tests in equal conditions in order to prove the validity of presented model. In these tests, the system to measure the vehicle acceleration is used with various speeds and engine throttle sensors. It is expected that the presented modeling techniques can provide good predictions of the vehicle driving comfortability.

Sensitivity Study of the Initial Meteorological Fields on the PM10 Concentration Predictions Using CMAQ Modeling (CMAQ 모델링을 통한 초기 기상장에 대한 미세먼지 농도 예측 민감도 연구)

  • Jo, Yu-Jin;Lee, Hyo-Jung;Chang, Lim-Seok;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.554-569
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    • 2017
  • Sensitivity analysis on $PM_{10}$ forecasting simulations was carried out by using two different initial and boundary conditions of meteorological fields: NCEP/FNL (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Final Analysis) reanlaysis data and NCEP/GFS (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System) forecasting data, and the comparisons were made between two different simulations. The two results both yielded lower $PM_{10}$ concentrations than observations, with relatively lower biased results by NCEP/FNL than NCEP/GFS. We explored the detailed individual meteorological variables to associate with $PM_{10}$ prediction performance. With the results of NCEP/FNL outperforming GFS, our conclusion is that no particular significant bias was found in temperature fields between NCEP/FNL and NCEP/GFS data, while the overestimated wind speed by NCEP/GFS data influenced on the lower $PM_{10}$ concentrations simulation than NCEP/FNL, by decreasing the duration time of high-$PM_{10}$ loaded air mass over both coastal and metropolitan areas. These comparative characteristics of FNL against GFS data such as maximum 3~4 m/s weaker wind speed, $PM_{10}$ concentration control with the highest possible factor of 1.3~1.6, and one or two hour difference of peak time for each case in this study, were also reflected into the results of statistical analysis. It is implying that improving the surface wind speed fluctuation is an important controlling factor for the better prediction of $PM_{10}$ over Korean Peninsula.

Advanced Forecasting Approach to Improve Uncertainty of Solar Irradiance Associated with Aerosol Direct Effects

  • Kim, Dong Hyeok;Yoo, Jung Woo;Lee, Hwa Woon;Park, Soon Young;Kim, Hyun Goo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.10
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    • pp.1167-1180
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    • 2017
  • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.

Development of a Grid-Based Daily Land Surface Temperature Prediction Model considering the Effect of Mean Air Temperature and Vegetation (평균기온과 식생의 영향을 고려한 격자기반 일 지표토양온도 예측 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Chihyun;Choi, Daegyu;Choi, Hyun Il;Kim, Kyunghyun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2012
  • Land surface temperature in ecohydrology is a variable that links surface structure to soil processes and yet its spatial prediction across landscapes with variable surface structure is poorly understood. And there are an insufficient number of soil temperature monitoring stations. In this study, a grid-based land surface temperature prediction model is proposed. Target sites are Andong and Namgang dam region. The proposed model is run in the following way. At first, geo-referenced site specific air temperatures are estimated using a kriging technique from data collected from 60 point weather stations. Then surface soil temperature is computed from the estimated geo-referenced site-specific air temperature and normalized difference vegetation index. After the model is calibrated with data collected from observed remote-sensed soil temperature, a soil temperature map is prepared based on the predictions of the model for each geo-referenced site. The daily and monthly simulated soil temperature shows that the proposed model is useful for reproducing observed soil temperature. Soil temperatures at 30 and 50 cm of soil depth are also well simulated.

Development of Deep Learning Ensemble Modeling for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction : Deep 4-LSTM Ensemble Model (암호화폐 가격 예측을 위한 딥러닝 앙상블 모델링 : Deep 4-LSTM Ensemble Model)

  • Choi, Soo-bin;Shin, Dong-hoon;Yoon, Sang-Hyeak;Kim, Hee-Woong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 2020
  • As the blockchain technology attracts attention, interest in cryptocurrency that is received as a reward is also increasing. Currently, investments and transactions are continuing with the expectation and increasing value of cryptocurrency. Accordingly, prediction for cryptocurrency price has been attempted through artificial intelligence technology and social sentiment analysis. The purpose of this paper is to develop a deep learning ensemble model for predicting the price fluctuations and one-day lag price of cryptocurrency based on the design science research method. This paper intends to perform predictive modeling on Ethereum among cryptocurrencies to make predictions more efficiently and accurately than existing models. Therefore, it collects data for five years related to Ethereum price and performs pre-processing through customized functions. In the model development stage, four LSTM models, which are efficient for time series data processing, are utilized to build an ensemble model with the optimal combination of hyperparameters found in the experimental process. Then, based on the performance evaluation scale, the superiority of the model is evaluated through comparison with other deep learning models. The results of this paper have a practical contribution that can be used as a model that shows high performance and predictive rate for cryptocurrency price prediction and price fluctuations. Besides, it shows academic contribution in that it improves the quality of research by following scientific design research procedures that solve scientific problems and create and evaluate new and innovative products in the field of information systems.

THERMALHYDRAULIC EVALUATIONS FOR A CANFLEX BUNDLE WITH NATURAL OR RECYCLED URANIUM FUEL IN THE UNCREPT AND CREPT CHANNELS OF A CANDU-6 REACTOR

  • Jun, Ji-Su
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.479-490
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    • 2005
  • The thermalhydraulic performance of a CANDU-6 reactor loaded with various CANFLEX fuel bundles is evaluated by the NUCIRC code, which is incorporated with recent models of pressure drop and critical heat flux (CHF) predictions based on high-pressure steam-water tests for the CANFLEX bundle as well as a 37-element bundle. The distributions of channel flow rate, channel exit quality, critical channel power (CCP), and critical power ratio (CPR) for the CANFLEX bundles (with natural or recycled uranium fuel) in the CANDU-6 reactor fuel channel are calculated by the code. The effects of axial and radial heat flux on CCP are evaluated by assuming that the recycled uranium fuel (CANFLEX-RU) has the same geometric data as the natural uranium fuel bundle (CANFLEX-NU), but a different power distribution due to different fuel composition and refueling scheme. In addition, the effects of pressure tube creep and bearing-pad height are examined by comparing various results of uncrept, and $3.3\%\;and\;5.1\%$ crept channels loaded with CANFLEX bundles with 1.4 mm or 1.7 mm high bearing-pads with those of the 37-element bundle. The distributions of the channel flow rate and CCP for the CANFLEX-NU or -RU bundle show a typical trend for a CANDU-6 reactor channel, and the CPRs are maintained above at least 1.444 (NU) or 1.455 (RU) in the uncrept channel. The enhanced CHF of the CANFLEX bundle (particularly with 1.7mm height bearing-pads) produces a higher thermal margin and considerably less sensitivity to CCP reduction due to the pressure tube creep than the 37-element bundle. The CCP enhancement due to the raised bearing-pads is estimated to be about $3\%\~5\%$ for the CANFLEX-NU and $2\%\~6\%$ for the CANFLEX-RU bundle, respectively.

Exploring the Role of Preference Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Online Ratings Dynamics

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Minjung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.61-101
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates when and how disagreements in online customer ratings prompt more favorable product evaluations. Among the three metrics of volume, valence, and variance that feature in the research on online customer ratings, volume and valence have exhibited consistently positive patterns in their effects on product sales or evaluations (e.g., Dellarocas, Zhang, and Awad 2007; Liu 2006). Ratings variance, or the degree of disagreement among reviewers, however, has shown rather mixed results, with some studies reporting positive effects on product sales (e.g., Clement, Proppe, and Rott 2007) while others finding negative effects on product evaluations (e.g., Zhu and Zhang 2010). This study aims to resolve these contradictory findings by introducing preference heterogeneity as a possible moderator and causal attribution as a mediator to account for the moderating effect. The main proposition of this study is that when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high, a disagreement in ratings is attributed more to reviewers' different preferences than to unreliable product quality, which in turn prompts better quality evaluations of a product. Because disagreements mostly result from differences in reviewers' tastes or the low reliability of a product's quality (Mizerski 1982; Sen and Lerman 2007), a greater level of attribution to reviewer tastes can mitigate the negative effect of disagreement on product evaluations. Specifically, if consumers infer that reviewers' heterogeneous preferences result in subjectively different experiences and thereby highly diverse ratings, they would not disregard the overall quality of a product. However, if consumers infer that reviewers' preferences are quite homogeneous and thus the low reliability of the product quality contributes to such disagreements, they would discount the overall product quality. Therefore, consumers would respond more favorably to disagreements in ratings when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high rather than low. This study furthermore extends this prediction to the various levels of average ratings. The heuristicsystematic processing model so far indicates that the engagement in effortful systematic processing occurs only when sufficient motivation is present (Hann et al. 2007; Maheswaran and Chaiken 1991; Martin and Davies 1998). One of the key factors affecting this motivation is the aspiration level of the decision maker. Only under conditions that meet or exceed his aspiration level does he tend to engage in systematic processing (Patzelt and Shepherd 2008; Stephanous and Sage 1987). Therefore, systematic causal attribution processing regarding ratings variance is likely more activated when the average rating is high enough to meet the aspiration level than when it is too low to meet it. Considering that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity occurs through the mediation of causal attribution, this greater activation of causal attribution in high versus low average ratings would lead to more pronounced interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity in high versus low average ratings. Overall, this study proposes that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high as compared to when it is low. Two laboratory studies lend support to these predictions. Study 1 reveals that participants exposed to a high-preference heterogeneity book title (i.e., a novel) attributed disagreement in ratings more to reviewers' tastes, and thereby more favorably evaluated books with such ratings, compared to those exposed to a low-preference heterogeneity title (i.e., an English listening practice book). Study 2 then extended these findings to the various levels of average ratings and found that this greater preference for disagreement options under high preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high compared to when it is low. This study makes an important theoretical contribution to the online customer ratings literature by showing that preference heterogeneity serves as a key moderator of the effect of ratings variance on product evaluations and that causal attribution acts as a mediator of this moderation effect. A more comprehensive picture of the interplay among ratings variance, preference heterogeneity, and average ratings is also provided by revealing that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity varies as a function of the average rating. In addition, this work provides some significant managerial implications for marketers in terms of how they manage word of mouth. Because a lack of consensus creates some uncertainty and anxiety over the given information, consumers experience a psychological burden regarding their choice of a product when ratings show disagreement. The results of this study offer a way to address this problem. By explicitly clarifying that there are many more differences in tastes among reviewers than expected, marketers can allow consumers to speculate that differing tastes of reviewers rather than an uncertain or poor product quality contribute to such conflicts in ratings. Thus, when fierce disagreements are observed in the WOM arena, marketers are advised to communicate to consumers that diverse, rather than uniform, tastes govern reviews and evaluations of products.

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