• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.235-245
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• 2011

Early criticality prediction models that determine whether a design entity is fault-prone or not are becoming more and more important as software development projects are getting larger. Effective predictions can reduce the system development cost and improve software quality by identifying trouble-spots at early phases and proper allocation of effort and resources. Many prediction models have been proposed using statistical and machine learning methods. This paper builds a prediction model using Support Vector Machine(SVM) which is one of the most popular modern classification methods and compares its prediction performance with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model(BPM). SVM is known to generalize well even in high dimensional spaces under small training data conditions. In prediction performance evaluation experiments, dimensionality reduction techniques for data set are not used because the dimension of input data is too small. Experimental results show that the prediction performance of SVM model is slightly better than that of BPM and polynomial kernel function achieves better performance than other SVM kernel functions.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.211-221
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• 2012

Many metric-based classification models have been proposed to predict fault-proneness of software module. This paper presents two prediction models using Bayesian classifier which is one of the most popular modern classification algorithms. Bayesian model based on Bayesian probability theory can be a promising technique for software quality prediction. This is due to the ability to represent uncertainty using probabilities and the ability to partly incorporate expert's knowledge into training data. The two models, Na$\ddot{i}$veBayes(NB) and Bayesian Belief Network(BBN), are constructed and dimensionality reduction of training data and test data are performed before model evaluation. Prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated using two prediction error measures, Type I error and Type II error, and compared with well-known prediction models, backpropagation neural network model and support vector machine model. The results show that the prediction performance of BBN model is slightly better than that of NB. For the data set with ambiguity, although the BBN model's prediction accuracy is not as good as the compared models, it achieves better performance than the compared models for the data set without ambiguity.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

Occurrence of process environment changes, such as influent load variances and process condition changes, can reduce treatment efficiency, increasing effluent water quality. In order to prevent exceeding effluent standards, it is necessary to manage effluent water quality based on process operation data including influent and process condition before exceeding occur. Accordingly, the development of the effluent water quality prediction system and the application of technology to wastewater treatment processes are getting attention. Therefore, in this study, through the multi-channel measuring instruments in the bio-reactor and smart multi-item water quality sensors (location in bio-reactor influent/effluent) were installed in The Seonam water recycling center #2 treatment plant series 3, it was collected water quality data centering around COD, T-N. Using the collected data, the artificial intelligence-based effluent quality prediction model was developed, and relative errors were compared with effluent TMS measurement data. Through relative error comparison, the applicability of the artificial intelligence-based effluent water quality prediction model in wastewater treatment process was reviewed.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.335-343
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• 2021

Water quality prediction is essential for the proper management of water supply systems. Increased suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has various effects on water supply systems such as increased treatment cost and consequently, there have been various efforts to develop a model for predicting SSC. However, SSC is affected by both the natural and anthropogenic environment, making it challenging to predict SSC. Recently, advanced machine learning models have increasingly been used for water quality prediction. This study developed an ensemble machine learning model to predict SSC using the XGBoost (XGB) algorithm. The observed discharge (Q) and SSC in two fields monitoring stations were used to develop the model. The input variables were clustered in two groups with low and high ranges of Q using the k-means clustering algorithm. Then each group of data was separately used to optimize XGB (Model 1). The model performance was compared with that of the XGB model using the entire data (Model 2). The models were evaluated by mean squared error-ob servation standard deviation ratio (RSR) and root mean squared error. The RSR were 0.51 and 0.57 in the two monitoring stations for Model 2, respectively, while the model performance improved to RSR 0.46 and 0.55, respectively, for Model 1.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.116-125
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• 2003

Predictions of stream water quality require both estimation of pollutant loading from different sources and simulation of water quality processes in the stream. Nonpoint source pollution models are often employed for estimating pollutant loading in rural watersheds. In this study, a conjunctive application of SWAT model and WASP model was made and evaluated for its applicability based on the simulation results. Runoff and nutrient loading obtained from the SWAT model were used for generating input data for WASP model. The results showed that the simulated runoff was in good agreement with the observed data and indicated reasonable applicability. Loading for the water quality parameters predicted by WASP model also showed a reasonable agreement with the observed data. It is expected that stream water quality could be predicted by the coupled application of the two models, SWAT and WASP, in rural watersheds.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.1029-1037
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• 2020

The machine learning algorithm has been widely used in water-related fields such as water resources, water management, hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, water level prediction, weather forecasting, water discharge prediction, water quality forecasting, etc. However, water quality prediction studies based on the machine learning algorithm are limited compared to other water-related applications because of the limited water quality data. Most of the previous water quality prediction studies have predicted monthly water quality, which is useful information but not enough from a practical aspect. In this study, we predicted the dissolved oxygen (DO) using recurrent neural network with long short-term memory model recurrent neural network long-short term memory (RNN-LSTM) algorithms with hourly- and daily-datasets. Bugok Bridge in Oncheoncheon, located in Busan, where the data was collected in real time, was selected as the target for the DO prediction. The 10-month (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) data were used as time prediction inputs, and the 5-year (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and rainfall) data were used as the daily forecast inputs. Missing data were filled by linear interpolation. The prediction model was coded based on TensorFlow, an open-source library developed by Google. The performance of the RNN-LSTM algorithm for the hourly- or daily-based water quality prediction was tested and analyzed. Research results showed that the hourly data for the water quality is useful for machine learning, and the RNN-LSTM algorithm has potential to be used for hourly- or daily-based water quality forecasting.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.683-690
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• 2009

The water quality of reservoir can be controled by water quality prediction model because it can not only grasping the present water state but also predicting the water quality in future. In this study, WASP model is used to predict the water quality of Chungju reguration reservoir. This model has some special option which predicts the pollutant outflow phenomenon caused by the contamination sources. So this model is widely used because that can present the scientific basis in this field. This model can help the managers make the right choice of water quality policy. Environmental grade of Chungju reguration reservoir is in III,IV grade which is in bad condition comparatively. The water contamination will be in poor as the year passes. When considering T-N, T-P which are the nutrient to control eutrophication, the concentrated administration about contamination sources is in urgent.

• 한국식품저장유통학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.224-234
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• 2023

We analyzed the major quality characteristics of red pepper powders from various regions and predicted these characteristics nondestructively using shortwave infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology. We conducted partial least squares regression analysis on 70% (n=71) of the acquired hyperspectral data of the red pepper powders to examine the major quality characteristics. R_c² values of ≥0.8 were obtained for the ASTA color value (0.9263) and capsaicinoid content (0.8310). The developed quality prediction model was validated using the remaining 30% (n=35) of the hyperspectral data; the highest accuracy was achieved for the ASTA color value (R_p²=0.8488), and similar validity levels were achieved for the capsaicinoid and moisture contents. To increase the accuracy of the quality prediction model, we conducted spectrum preprocessing using SNV, MSC, SG-1, and SG-2, and the model's accuracy was verified. The results indicated that the accuracy of the model was most significantly improved by the MSC method, and the prediction accuracy for the ASTA color value was the highest for all the spectrum preprocessing methods. Our findings suggest that the quality characteristics of red pepper powders, even powders that do not conform to specific variables such as particle size and moisture content, can be predicted via HSI.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제14권11호
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• pp.1049-1056
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• 2005

[ $NO_2$ ] concentration characteristics of Busan metropolitan city was analysed by statistical method using hourly $NO_2$ concentration data$(1998\~2000)$ collected from air quality monitoring sites of the metropolitan city. 4 representative regions were selected among air quality monitoring sites of Ministry of environment. Concentration data of $NO_2$, 5 air pollutants, and data collected at AWS was used. Both Stepwise Multiple Regression model and ARIMA model for prediction of $NO_2$ concentrations were adopted, and then their results were compared with observed concentration. While ARIMA model was useful for the prediction of daily variation of the concentration, it was not satisfactory for the prediction of both rapid variation and seasonal variation of the concentration. Multiple Regression model was better estimated than ARIMA model for prediction of $NO_2$ concentration.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.221-234
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• 2014

Purpose: The Purpose of this study is to develop a model for predicting agent churn group in the cosmetics industry. We develope two models, pattern model and matrix model, which are compared regarding the prediction accuracy of churn agents. Finally, we try to conclude if there is statistically significant difference between two models by empirical study. Methods: We develop two models using the part of RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) method which is one of customer segmentation method in traditional CRM study. In order to ensure which model can predict churn agents more precisely between two models, we used CRM data of cosmetics company A in China. Results: Pattern model and matrix model have been developed. we find out that there is statistically significant differences between two models regarding the prediction accuracy. Conclusion: Pattern model and matrix model predict churn agents. Although pattern model employed the trend of monetary mount for six months, matrix model that used the amount of sales per month and the duration of the employment is better than pattern model in prediction accuracy.