• Title/Summary/Keyword: Qualitative risk management

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Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

The Effects of Global Entrepreneurship and Social Capital Within Supply Chain on the Export Performance (글로벌 기업가정신과 공급사슬 내 사회적 자본이 수출성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Heon-Deok;Kwak, Ki-Young;Seo, Ri-Bin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2012
  • Under the international business circumstance, global supply chain management is considered a vital strategic challenge to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) suffering from deficient resources and capabilities to exploit overseas markets comparing with large corporations. That is because they can expand their business domains into overseas markets by establishing strategic alliances with global supply chain partners. Although a wide range of previous researches have emphasized the cooperative networks in the chain, most are ignoring the importance of developing relational characteristics such as trust and reciprocity with the partners. Besides, verifying the relational factors influencing firms' export performances, some studies proposed different and inconsistent factors. According to the social capital theory, which is the social quality and networks facilitating close cooperation of inter-individual and inter-organization, provides the integrated view to identify the relational characteristics in the aspects of network, trust and reciprocal norm. Meanwhile, a number of researchers shows that global entrepreneurship is the internal and intangible resource necessary to promote SMEs' internationalization. Upon closer examination, however, they cannot explain clearly its influencing mechanism in the inter-firm cooperative relationships. This study is to verify the effect of social capital accumulated within global supply chain on SMEs' qualitative and quantitative export performance. In addition, we shed new light on global entrepreneurship expected to be concerned with the formation of social capital and the enhancement of export performances. For this purpose, the questionnaires, developed through literature review, were collected from 192 Korean SMEs affiliated in Korean Medium Industries Association and Global Chief Executive Officer's Club focusing on their memberships' international business. As a result of multi-regression analysis, the social capital - network, trust and reciprocal norm shared with global supply chain partner - as well as global entrepreneurship - innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking - have positive effect on SMEs' export performances. Also global entrepreneurship affects positively social capital which has mediating effect partially in the relationship between global entrepreneurship and performances. These results means that there is a structural process - global entrepreneurship(input), social capital(output), and export performances(outcome). In other words, a firm should consistently invest in and develop the social capital with global supply chain partners in order to achieve common goals, establish strategic collaborations and obtain long-term export performances. Furthermore, it is required to foster the global entrepreneurship in an organization so as to build up the social capital. More detailed practical issues and discussion are made in the conclusion.

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An Empirical Study on Successful Factor of Local Mobile App One-Person Creating Company : The Moderating Effects of Social Capital (지역 모바일 앱 1인 창조기업의 성공요인에 관한 실증분석 : 사회적 자본의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Cheon, Phyeong Uk;Chung, Dong Seop;Ock, Young Seok
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.201-219
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    • 2014
  • The Republic of Korea in the real economy to a knowledge economy, and a center of creativity and imagination in the creative economy is changing the paradigm. As the core of creating economic, creative industries with the technology and information play an important role in the industry individuals. In order to solve the problem of the polarization of the economy and high youth unemployment rate of Korea, to recognize the role of the creative industries, as objection part, dimensions pan-national and one creative companies in industries of Mobile Apps various policies that support has been promoted. Support these policies to be able to contribute to the establishment of the success of mobile apps one-person creating company, we performed this study targeting one-person company that creates mobile apps area, we conducted a demonstration study of success factors, and thus more effective and efficient in an attempt to seek out support measures. In this study, we derive a research 4 hypothesis about the success factors of one creative enterprise through literature discussion, a study was made on the basis of empirical data of one-person company that creates mobile apps. The results of the analysis, first, if the development rate of the mobile application technology is fast and a new competition associated product is appeared, it was possible to find a tendency to be higher at the performance quantitative companies. Second, if the founder is a founding for the benefit and rewarding work and come to terms with the risk, it was possible to discover tends to be higher achievement quantitative. Third, if one-person company select a target market with capture intensively, it was possible to find a tendency for higher qualitative results. Fourth, it could be found that the reliability of the contact frequency of the network related performance business environment these characteristics enterprise management strategy and act as a significant modulatory effect. Provision of information relating to management and entrepreneurship education to be one creative enterprise is required, these results suggest that there is a provision continuing need for the opportunity to be able to meet and network and reliable variety have. In this study, to take advantage to promote the elimination measures that can increase the likelihood of success of the company of institutions to support one company that creates knowledge-based, such as in the field of mobile application.

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An Analysis on the Current Status of Daily Outdoor Play Parents Recognize (Focused on Gyeonggi-do) (부모가 인식하고 있는 일상적 바깥놀이 실태 분석 (경기도를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Yong-Sook;Yoon, Hee-Bong;Yoo, Ji-Eun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the current status and condition of children's playgrounds in K which parents recognize as in Gyeonggi-do and provide basic data for the qualitative environment for daily outdoor play of young Children. To do so, a survey of 269 parents living in Gyeonggi-do was conducted and reconstructed based on the advanced research related to outdoor play. Also it was evaluated and revised after consultation with 3 children education specialists. The repossessed questionaries were frequency-analyzed with SPSS 20.0 program. The result of the analysis on outdoor playgrounds is in the following. First of all, it was analyzed that parents required 1 or 2 hours for their children to play outdoors in a type of "forest playgrounds." Moreover, they said that it was really important for the children to feel "interesting and funny" during the outdoor play, and they recognized that the play would be helpful for the children's socialization. However, they felt that a risk factor of the outdoor play was "a vehicle risk in streets." Secondly, the study suggested that there were outdoor playgrounds around parents' houses, and a type of the outdoor play was "a playground installed in the apartment complex." Furthermore, most of the parents weren't satisfied with the outdoor play because the apartment neglected the management of the playgrounds, and there were no playing facilities that were good enough to derive children's curiosity and adventurous spirit. The result also showed that most of the children played outdoors with "their mothers," and they participated in indoor activities, especially playing a game or watching TV rather than outdoor activities after attending a children educational institute. Lastly, when it comes to areas of outdoor play to be improved, it was necessary to "expand playgrounds that children can use for each season," build "safe playgrounds" for a type of the outdoor play," provide "playing spaces" for a spatial type, and "control vehicles around the playgrounds and deal with dangerous things" to prevent safety accidents. The result can expand the understanding of outdoor play for Young Children and offer discussions about the relevant organizations and studies.

Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

The Effect of Price Promotional Information about Brand on Consumer's Quality Perception: Conditioning on Pretrial Brand (품패개격촉소신식대소비자질량인지적영향(品牌价格促销信息对消费者质量认知的影响))

  • Lee, Min-Hoon;Lim, Hang-Seop
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2009
  • Price promotion typically reduces the price for a given quantity or increases the quantity available at the same price, thereby enhancing value and creating an economic incentive to purchase. It often is used to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of price promotions on quality perception made by consumer who do not have prior experience with the promoted brand. However, if consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior brand quality, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. More specifically, low qualitative perception through price promotion will undercut the economic and psychological incentives and reduce the likelihood of purchase. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. Previous literatures on the effects of price promotions on quality perception reveal inconsistent explanations. Some focused on the unfavorable effect of price promotion on consumer's perception. But others showed that price promotions didn't raise unfavorable perception on the brand. Prior researches found these inconsistent results related to the timing of the price promotion's exposure and quality evaluation relative to trial. And, whether the consumer has been experienced with the product promotions in the past or not may moderate the effects. A few studies considered differences among product categories as fundamental factors. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of price promotional informations on consumer's unfavorable quality perception under the different conditions. The author controlled the timing of the promotional exposure and varied past promotional patterns and information presenting patterns. Unlike previous researches, the author examined the effects of price promotions setting limit to pretrial situation by controlling potentially moderating effects of prior personal experience with the brand. This manipulations enable to resolve possible controversies in relation to this issue. And this manipulation is meaningful for the work sector. Price promotion is not only used to target existing consumers but also to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. If consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior quality about unused brand, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. In addition, if the price promotion ends, the consumer that have purchased that certain brand will likely to display sharply decreased repurchasing behavior. Through a literature review, hypothesis 1 was set as follows to investigate the adjustive effect of past price promotion on quality perception made by consumers; The influence that price promotion of unused brand have on quality perception made by consumers will be adjusted by past price promotion activity of the brand. In other words, a price promotion of an unused brand that have not done a price promotion in the past will have a unfavorable effect on quality perception made by consumer. Hypothesis 2-1 was set as follows : When an unused brand undertakes price promotion for the first time, the information presenting pattern of price promotion will have an effect on the consumer's attribution for the cause of the price promotion. Hypothesis 2-2 was set as follows : The more consumer dispositionally attribute the cause of price promotion, the more unfavorable the quality perception made by consumer will be. Through test 1, the subjects were given a brief explanation of the product and the brand before they were provided with a $2{\times}2$ factorial design that has 4 patterns of price promotion (presence or absence of past price promotion * presence or absence of current price promotion) and the explanation describing the price promotion pattern of each cell. Then the perceived quality of imaginary brand WAVEX was evaluated in the scale of 7. The reason tennis racket was chosen is because the selected product group must have had almost no past price promotions to eliminate the influence of average frequency of promotion on the value of price promotional information as Raghubir and Corfman (1999) pointed out. Test 2 was also carried out on students of the same management faculty of test 1 with tennis racket as the product group. As with test 1, subjects with average familiarity for the product group and low familiarity for the brand was selected. Each subjects were assigned to one of the two cells representing two different information presenting patterns of price promotion of WAVEX (case where the reason behind price promotion was provided/case where the reason behind price promotion was not provided). Subjects looked at each promotional information before evaluating the perceived quality of the brand WAVEX in the scale of 7. The effect of price promotion for unfamiliar pretrial brand on consumer's perceived quality was proved to be moderated with the presence or absence of past price promotion. The consistency with past promotional behavior is important variable that makes unfavorable effect on brand evaluations get worse. If the price promotion for the brand has never been carried out before, price promotion activity may have more unfavorable effects on consumer's quality perception. Second, when the price promotion of unfamiliar pretrial brand was executed for the first time, presenting method of informations has impact on consumer's attribution for the cause of firm's promotion. And the unfavorable effect of quality perception is higher when the consumer does dispositional attribution comparing with situational attribution. Unlike the previous studies where the main focus was the absence or presence of favorable or unfavorable motivation from situational/dispositional attribution, the focus of this study was exaus ing the fact that a situational attribution can be inferred even if the consumer employs a dispositional attribution on the price promotional behavior, if the company provides a persuasive reason. Such approach, in academic perspectih sis a large significance in that it explained the anchoring and adjng ch approcedures by applying it to a non-mathematical problem unlike the previous studies where it wis ionaly explained by applying it to a mathematical problem. In other wordn, there is a highrspedency tmatispositionally attribute other's behaviors according to the fuedach aal attribution errors and when this is applied to the situation of price promotions, we can infer that consumers are likely tmatispositionally attribute the company's price promotion behaviors. Ha ever, even ueder these circumstances, the company can adjng the consumer's anchoring tmareduce the po wibiliute thdispositional attribution. Furthermore, unlike majority of previous researches on short/long-term effects of price promotion that only considered the effect of price promotions on consumer's purchasing behaviors, this research measured the effect on perceived quality, one of man elements that affects the purchasing behavior of consumers. These results carry useful implications for the work sector. A guideline of effectively providing promotional informations for a new brand can be suggested through the outcomes of this research. If the brand is to avoid false implications such as inferior quality while implementing a price promotion strategy, it must provide a clear and acceptable reasons behind the promotion. Especially it is more important for the company with no past price promotion to provide a clear reason. An inconsistent behavior can be the cause of consumer's distrust and anxiety. This is also one of the most important factor of risk of endless price wars. Price promotions without prior notice can buy doubt from consumers not market share.

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