• Title/Summary/Keyword: Projection Statistics

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A Study on Vital Statistics Survey : its Type, Source of Errors and Improvement Scheme (인구동태조사 개선을 위한 방법론적 고찰)

  • 김일현;최봉호
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 1989
  • It is well known that vital statistics is of great importance as basic data for establishing various range of national policies. Especially, vital statistics is important among demographic information for monitoring and evaluating the population policy, for constructing life table, for making population projection, and for studying various aspects of the society. In principle, the production of vital statistics is based on the registration system. It is, however, still observed that there are some limitations in utilizing fully the registration system due to the inherent problems such as problems in its coverage, accuracies and timeliness. Thus, as an alternative, many countries conduct survey on vital statistics in order to supplement the registration system and obtain in-depth data. Korea is no exception in this aspect. The National Bureau of Statistics carries out the so-called Continuous Demographic Survey. This is a kind of multi-round retrospective survey, covering 32, 000 households and having reference period of one month. The survey has also characteristics of multi-subject sample. Thus, surveys on economic activity status of population, house-hold income & expenditure, and social indicators are together conducted with the same sample. It is, however, found that the survey itself tends to have some quality problems. Especially, the quality problems connected with field data collection are summarized as coverage error, non-response error and response error. Although it is inevitable not to be free from these errors, we should make all our efforts to reduce the errors. The probable schemes pointed out in this paper are as follows : 1) the strengthening formal quality control activities, 2) the review of the survey method, i. e., the combining interview method with mail-sending and mail-back method or pick-up method, 3) well documentation for various cases found in every stage of data collection, and 4) the strengthening the analytical activities. It is, also, emphasized that sincerity of planners and interviewers is the most important factor among other things.

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Applications of Bootstrap Methods for Canonical Correspondence Analysis (정준대응분석에서 붓스트랩 방법 활용)

  • Ko, Hyeon-Seok;Jhun, Myoungshic;Jeong, Hyeong Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.485-494
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    • 2015
  • Canonical correspondence analysis is an ordination method used to visualize the relationships among sites, species and environmental variables. However, projection results are fluctuations if the samples slightly change and consistent interpretation on ecological similarity among species tends to be difficult. We use the bootstrap methods for canonical correspondence analysis to solve this problem. The bootstrap method results show that the variations of coordinate points are inversely proportional to the number of observations and coverage rates with bootstrap confidence interval approximates to nominal probabilities.

Estimable functions of less than full rank linear model (불완전계수의 선형모형에서 추정가능함수)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.333-339
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    • 2013
  • This paper discusses a method for getting a basis set of estimable functions of less than full rank linear model. Since model parameters are not estimable estimable functions should be identified for making inferences proper about them. So, it suggests a method of using full rank factorization of model matrix to find estimable functions in easy way. Although they might be obtained in many different ways of using model matrix, the suggested full rank factorization technique could be one of much easier methods. It also discusses how to use projection matrix to identify estimable functions.

Type I projection sum of squares by weighted least squares (가중최소제곱법에 의한 제1종 사영제곱합)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses a method for getting Type I sums of squares by projections under a two-way fixed-effects model when variances of errors are not equal. The method of weighted least squares is used to estimate the parameters of the assumed model. The model is fitted to the data in a sequential manner by using the model comparison technique. The vector space generated by the model matrix can be composed of orthogonal vector subspaces spanned by submatrices consisting of column vectors related to the parameters. It is discussed how to get the Type I sums of squares by using the projections into the orthogonal vector subspaces.

Estimable functions of fixed-effects model by projections (사영에 의한 모수모형의 추정가능함수)

  • Choi, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2012
  • This paper discusses a method for getting a basis set of estimable functions of model parameters in a two-way fixed effects model. Since the fixed effects model has more parameters than those that can be estimated, model parameters are not estimable. So it is not possible to make inferences for nonestimable functions of parameters. When the assumed model of matrix notation is reparameterized by the estimable functions in a basis set, it also discusses how to use projections for the estimation of estimable functions.

Projection analysis for two-way variance components (이원 분산성분의 사영분석)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.547-554
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses a method of estimating variance components for random effects model. Henderson's method I and III are discussed for the esimation of variance components. This paper shows how to use projections instead of using Henderson's methods for the calculation of sums of squares which are quadratic forms in the observations. It also discusses that eigenvalues can be used for getting the expectations of sums of squares in place of using the method of Hartley's synthesis. It shows the suggested method is much more effective than those methods.

A Study on the Basic Skirt using a 3D Sample Module - For Plus-sized Women - (3D Sample Module을 활용한 스커트 원형 연구 -Plus-size 여성을 중심으로-)

  • Sung, Ok-Jin;Ha, Hee-Jung
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.271-285
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a new basic skirt pattern for 4 lower body types of Plus-sized women. To reduce a time and economic loss about putting it on, This study applied a 3D sample module in the course to develop a basic skirt pattern which is fit, functional and beautiful. A data analysis used the SPSS 11.0 statistics program. To verify the difference, This study used the variance analysis and Duncan's test for the postmortem verification. The result was as follows. To reflect a feature according to an abdomen projection and hip projection, we added the maximum hip circumference to the waist circumference and hip circumference for necessary for a skirt draft item. The front hip circumference sets to the H/4+1cm(ease)+D/4. The back hip circumference set to the H/4+0.5cm(ease)+D/4. The D is the hip circumference in the maximum hip circumference to subtract. The front waist circumference sets to the W/4+0.5cm(ease)+0.5cm(A front and back's difference)+D/4. The back waist circumference sets to the W/4+0.5cm(ease)-0.5cm(A front and back's difference)-D/4. Compare with 4 lower body types of Plus-sized Women, A type 2 and type 4 abdomen projections are bigger. We raised a front waistline of skirt pattern to a 0.3cm upside, and take about 1.3cm down the skirt length from a developed skirt pattern. Consequently, the appearance of a front skirt length was improved with a side skirt length.

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An Adaptive Gradient-Projection Image Restoration using Spatial Local Constraints and Estimated Noise (국부 공간 제약 정보 및 예측 노이즈 특성을 이용한 적응 Gradient-Projection 영상 복원 방식)

  • Hong, Min-Cheol
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.10C
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    • pp.975-981
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we propose a spatially adaptive image restoration algorithm using local and statistics and estimated noise. The ratio of local mean, variance, and maximum values with different window size is used to constrain the solution space, and these parameters are computed at each iteration step using partially restored image. In addition, the additive noise estimated from partially restored image and the local constraints are used to determine a parameter for controlling the degree of local smoothness on the solution. The resulting iterative algorithm exhibits increased convergence speed when compared to the non-adaptive algorithm. In addition, a smooth solution with a controlled degree of smoothness is obtained without a prior knowledge about the noise. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm requires the similar iteration number to converge, but there is the improvement of SNR more than 0.2 dB comparing to the previous approach.

Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India

  • Mathew, Aleyamma;George, Preethi Sara;Arjunan, Asha;Augustine, Paul;Kalavathy, MC;Padmakumari, G;Mathew, Beela Sarah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.2895-2899
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    • 2016
  • Background: Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005-2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. Materials and Methods: BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. Results: BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per $10^5$ women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019-20. Conclusions: BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.