• Human Ecology Research
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.309-318
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• 2015

This study investigates to investigate the ageing effect on household demand for clothing, food, housing and medical care commodities in Korea using a demand system model. The cross-sectional and time-series data from Statistics Korea on urban household expenditures and age projection analyzed household demands of consumption commodities. The household head age and elderly population ratio were employed for proxy variables of ageing. Ageing variable elasticities of commodity demands were estimated. Study results show that ageing variables significantly influenced on a household demand for commodities; clothing and food consumption decreases; however, housing and medical care consumption increases with ageing. The elasticities of total consumption expenditures and price variables were estimated in the demand analysis; these two variables significantly impacted almost all of the household consumption for the studied commodities. This study provides an opportunity to examine how ageing influences household consumption for clothing, food, housing and medical care commodities as Korean society experiences a rapid ageing. It is also meaningful that this study conducted a quantitative measuring of the household demands for commodities that was different from past research on the household consumption expenditures for commodities.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.21-27
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• 2024

Harmful pet insects, if not controlled, can negatively affect people, plants and their surrounding environment. In Vietnam, all crops are regularly impacted by pest insects. In serious cases, crops can be totally destroyed by insect pests. Harmful insects that damage crops often grow fast and increase rapidly. Therefore, research on insects is crucial for managing pests, protecting crops, and forecasting pest situation in the following years. This study aimed to collect data regarding changes of pests on rice and corn as two main crops in four provinces in Red River Delta of Vietnam, including Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Ha Nam, and Hung Yen, from 2018 to 2022. Primary data were collected from reports of government agencies and official statistics. Based on these data, this study evaluated changes of pest insects in five years, discussed reasons for such changes and response methods, and forecasted pest's behavior in the following years. Significant findings of this study include the fact that Vietnam has to face many difficulties to develop its agricultural sector. For insect management, an essential action is to do ground surveys to gather all related data including weather data, pesticide data, crop yield, and product quality. This information is meaningful for finding out causes of changes, understanding relationships between insects and surrounding factors, and predicting the situation in the following years.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.643-661
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• 2015

사학연금은 사립학교 교직원이 의무 가입하는 연금으로, 가입자들이 퇴직, 사망 등으로 경제적 위험에 처한 경우 연금을 수급하여 안정을 보장하기 위한 사회보장제도이다. 따라서 사학연금이 공적연금의 기능을 위해서는 기금의 안정성 및 지속가능성이 확보되어야 하며, 적절한 급여소득을 보장해야 할 것이다. 그러나 가장 대표적 공적연금인 공무원연금은 이미 2001년 재정수지 적자를 기록하였으며, 누적적자폭은 앞으로 더욱 커질 것으로 예상되어 최근 이에 대한 여러 개혁안이 활발히 논의되고 있다. 사학연금 제도는 기본적으로 공무원연금제도를 기초로 하는바, 이러한 국민연금 및 공무원연금 개혁 논의에서 자유롭지 못하다. 뿐만 아니라 한국의 고령화 및 인구구조 추세로 볼 때, 현행제도 하에서는 사학연금 기금 역시 향후 30년 내 기금 고갈이 예상되는 바, 현재의 사학연금 제도가 개선될 필요가 있음을 시사한다. 본 연구는 기존의 사학연금 제도의 문제점을 짚어보고, 이를 개선하기 위한 추계방법 및 개정방안을 제안한다. 이를 위해 사학연금의 장기재정추계를 통한 기금고갈시점 및 재정적자액의 규모를 예측하고, 현재 및 미래의 인구구조를 반영한 수급부담 구조를 비교 분석함으로써, 사학연금의 안정성과 적정성을 유지하기 위한 연금개혁 방안을 논의하고자 한다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

우리나라 출산율은 2000년 이후 빠르게 감소하고 있으며, 시도별 출산율도 대체적으로 동일한 추이를 나타내고 있다. 특히 시도별 출산율은 지방자치단체에서 저출산 고령화 대책, 교육 및 복지 등의 지역정책을 마련하기 위한 필수 자료이다. KOSTAT (2017) 시도별 출산율 추계 방법은 최근 10년(5년)간 전국 평균 출산율 정보를 이용하고 있으므로 이질적인 시도별 추이를 반영하는데 한계점이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 시도별 출산율 추계에서 중요한 연도별 안정적 패턴 유지와 시도 출산율 차별성을 동시에 고려하는 개선방안을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법(제안 1, 2)는 연도별 출산율의 시계열 자료를 활용함으로써 연령별로 과거부터 현재까지의 출산율의 변동추이 및 전국과 시도의 차이를 반영할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 또한 제안3은 전국과의 관계는 고려하지 않고 시도의 연령별로 출산율의 과거부터 현재까지의 독자적 추이를 반영한다. 연구결과 우리나라의 경우 전국 출산율과 시도 출산율 패턴이 유사하므로 제안1, 2와 같이 시도 출산율 예측시 전국과의 관계를 이용하는 게 바람직하다 볼 수 있다. 이런 제안은 연령별 출산율 추이에 안정성을 개선시켰다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.131-142
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• 1999

통계청에서 최근에 발표한 한국인 인구통계 자료와 미국 학술원 산하 '방사선의 생물학적 영향 위원회'의 최근 보고서(BEIR-V)의 수정 상대위험 투사모델을 적용하여 한국인의 방사선 피폭에 의한 초과 암발생 위험도를 평가하였다. 인구통계 자료로부터 유도한 사소위험도(trivial risk) 및 계산된 방사선유발 초과 암 위험도를 비교한 후 사소위험도의 수준으로 개인의 피폭선량을 유지하기 위한 국내 원전의 안전운영 목표치를 유도하였다. 방사선 피폭 유발 초과 암 위험도는 0.1 Gy의 단일피폭의 경우에는 $5.5{\times}10^{-3}$, 1.0 mGy/y로 생애연속 피폭 시엔 $3.7{\times}10^{-3}$인 것으로 평가되었다. 한국인의 모든 원인에 의한 기저사망 위험도 및 사소위험도는 각각 $5.2{\times}10^{-3}$ 및 $5.2{\times}10^{-6}$인 것으로 예상되었다. 한국인의 사소위험도 및 방사선 위험도 평가 결과로부터 유도한 국내 원전운영의 안전목표치는 대략 0.05 mSv/y로, 이 값은 미국 원자력규제위원회(USNRC)가 연방규제법 10CFR50 부록 I에서 제시하고 있는 ALARA 지침값과 거의 동일한 값으로 밝혀졌다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.91-104
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• 2011

최근 음주운전자 중 과거 음주운전 전력이 2회 이상인 경우가 많아 음주운전을 상습적으로 하는 운전자가 사회적 문제로 대두되고 있다. 본 연구는 상습적 음주운전자들이 가지고 있는 심리적 특성 및 대책을 모색하고자 비음주운전자들과 1~2회 이상 음주운전자들 집단 간 차이를 구조방정식의 확인적 요인 분석으로 알아보고 대책마련을 하고자 했다. 연구결과를 정리하면, 첫째, 음주운전 단속 전력별로 운전자들의 희망 치료 방식 및 교육내용을 파악하여 제시할 수 있었다. 둘째, 방어기제(합리화, 투사, 승화)와 음주운전 심리(죄의식, 수치심, 곤혹감), 자존감(긍정, 부정)을 이론변수로 사용하여 음주운전 전력별 음주운전 심리특성 모형을 구조방정식을 통해 구축할 수 있었다. 셋째, 음주운전 심리특성 모형의 분석 결과 각 집단의 특성에 맞는 음주운전 예방 및 저감대책을 제시할 수 있었다. 넷째, 음주운전 단속 전력과 한국형 알코올 중독자 선별 검사 점수를 대응분석하여 개인의 음주특성에 따른 음주운전 대책 부분을 보완 할 수 있었다. 또한, 음주운전 2회 이상 전력자를 상습 음주 운전자로 제시하였다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.233-241
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• 2015

In 2014, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to submit the Intended Nationality Determined Contributions (INDCs) at the conference of parties held in Lima, Peru. Then, the South Korean government submitted the INDCs including GHGs reduction target and reduction potential on July, 2015. The goal of this study is to predict GHGs emission and to analyze reduction potential in agricultural sector of Korea. Activity data to estimate GHGs emission was forecast by Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO) of Korea Rural Economic Institute and estimate methodology was taken by the IPCC and guideline for MRV (Measurement, Reporting and Verification) of national greenhouse gases statistics of Korea. The predicted GHGs emission of agricultural sectors from 2021 to 2030 tended to decrease due to decline in crop production and its gap was less after 2025. Increasing livestock numbers such as sheep, horses, swine, and ducks did not show signigicant impact the total GHGs emission. On a analysis of the reduction potential, GHGs emission was expected to reduce $253Gg\;CO_{2-eq}$. by 2030 with increase of mid-season water drainage area up to 95% of total rice cultivation area. The GHGs reduction potential with intermittent drainage technology applied to 10% of the tatal paddy field area, mid-drainage and no organic matter would be $92Gg\;CO_{2-eq}$. by 2030.

• 지역사회간호학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.508-524
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• 1999

We would like to identify the current status and the problem of the material for sexual education in Korea by analyzing the contents and the subjects of the materials. The 274 materials were collected from 80 institutes from March 1999 to June 1999. The collected ones were analyzed according to title. year of production. producer. subjects of materials and contents. Also, the materials in the internet was searched. Result were summarized by the descriptive statistics with SPSS/PC as followings: Type of materials were video tape (155), books (70), projection slides (43) and CD-ROM (6); Number of production from each institute were 54 from Planned Parenthood Federation of Korea, 39 from Korea Broadcasting System. 23 from Seoul School Health Center. 22 from Seoul Education and Science Research Institute, 16 from Korea Sexual Violence Relief Center, 13 from Republic of Korean National Redcross. and 10 from Korea Educational Development Institute; Subjects of the materials were middle and high school children (55), teachers (35), primary schoolchildren (17) and adult (14), preschool children (5). One hundred forty eight materials did not indicate the specific subjects; Thirty institutes had been providing the information for sexual education and the counseling. According to the above results. we suggest the followings: The systematic development of materials for sexual education appropriate to the specific subjects should be done: Materials in the CD-ROM and internet homepage should be developed more and more; The evaluation tool should be developed and adapted to the materials for the recommendation of the good materials; Database of the sexual materials should be provided for further development, evaluation and utilization.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.3911-3916
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• 2012

Background: The objective of this study WAS to describe cancer incidence rates and trends among THE Hong Kong population for the period 1983-2008. Methods: Incident cases and population data from 1983 to 2008 were obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry and the Census and Statistics Department, respectively. Agestandardized incidence rates (ASIR) were estimated and joinpoint regression was applied to detect significant changes in cancer morbidity. Results: For all cancers combined, the ASIR showed declining trends (1.37% in men, 0.94% in women), this also being the case for cancers of lung, liver, nasopharynx, stomach, bladder, oesophagus for both genders and cervix cancer for women. With cancer of thyroid, prostate, male colorectal, corpus uteri, ovary and female breast cancer an increase was evident throughout the period. The incidence for leukemia showed a stable trend since early 1990s, following an earlier decrease. Conclusion: Although overall cancer incidence rates and certain cancers showed declining trends, incidence trends for colorectal, thyroid and sex-related cancers continue to rise. These trends in cancer morbidity can be used as an important resource to plan and develop effective programs aimed at the control and prevention of the spread of cancer amongst the Hong Kong population. It is particularly useful in allowing projection of future burdens on the society with the increase in certain cancer incidences.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.3097-3100
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• 2015

Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.