• 제목/요약/키워드: Prognostic models

검색결과 88건 처리시간 0.021초

복잡지형에서의 배출량 시나리오에 따른 대기질 수치모의 (The Air Quality Modeling According to the Emission Scenarios on Complex Area)

  • 이화운;최현정;이순환;임헌호;이강열;성경희;정우식;박정임;문난경
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제16권8호
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    • pp.921-928
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this work is the air quality modeling according to the scenarios of emission on complex terrain. The prognostic meteorological fields and air quality field over complex areas of Seoul, Korea are generated by the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and the Third Generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (Models - 3/CMAQ), respectively. The emission source was driven from the Clean Air Policy Support System of the Korea National institute of Environmental Research (CAPSS), which is a 1 km x 1 km grid in South Korea during 2003. In comparison of air quality fields, the simulated averaged $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ concentration on complex terrain in control case were decreased as compared with base case. Particularly $PM_{10}$ revealed most substantial localized differences by $(18{\sim}24{\mu}g/m^3)$. The reduction rate of $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ is respectively 18.88, 13.34 and 4.17%.

Prediction of Time to Recurrence and Influencing Factors for Gastric Cancer in Iran

  • Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Ghannad, Masoud Sabouri;Safari, Maliheh;Sadighi, Sanambar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권6호
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    • pp.2639-2642
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    • 2012
  • Background: The patterns of gastric cancer recurrence vary across societies. We designed the current study in an attempt to evaluate and reveal the outbreak of the recurrence patterns of gastric cancer and also prediction of time to recurrence and its effected factors in Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was performed from March 2003 to February 2007. Demographic characteristics, clinical and pathological diagnosis and classification including pathologic stage, tumor grade, tumor site and tumor size in of patients with GC recurrent were collected from patients' data files. To evaluate of factors affected on the relapse of the GC patients, gender, age at diagnosis, treatment type and Hgb were included in the research. Data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models. Results: After treatment, 82 patients suffered recurrence, 42, 33 and 17 by the ends of first, second and third years. The mean ( SD) and median ( IQR) time to recurrence in patients with GC were 25.5 (20.6-30.1) and 21.5 (15.6-27.1) months, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis logistic regression showed that only pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affected the recurrence. Conclusions: We found that pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affect on the recurrence of GC which has a high positive prognostic value and might be functional for better follow-up and selecting the patients at risk. We also showed time to recurrence to be an important factor for follow-up of patients.

Efficacy and Safety of Bevacizumab in Chinese Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

  • Zhu, Li-Ming;Zhao, Ya-Zhen;Ju, Hai-Xing;Liu, Lu-Ying;Chen, Lei;Liu, Bi-Xia;Xu, Qi;Luo, Cong;Ying, Jie-Er;Yang, Yun-Shan;Zhong, Hai-Jun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권16호
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    • pp.6559-6564
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    • 2014
  • Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of bevacizumab in the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Methods: In a single-center, observational study of 91 Chinese patients with mCRC who received bevacizumab in combination with chemotherapy was conducted. Objective response rates (ORRs), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and adverse events were recorded, and the relationships between various clinical factors and PFS or OS were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Treatment with bevacizumab and chemotherapy was effective and tolerable. Univariate analysis showed that PFS and OS were significantly associated with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS) score, duration of bevacizumab exposure, and whether chemotherapy was continued after discontinuation of bevacizumab treatment. A multivariate analysis showed that the duration of bevacizumab exposure and whether chemotherapy was continued after discontinuation of bevacizumab were independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS. Conclusion: In Chinese mCRC population, the shorter the duration of exposure to bevacizumab and chemotherapy, the worse the prognosis is.

사회경제적 위치와 유방암 수술 후 총 사망위험과의 관련성 (Association Between Socioeconomic Status and All-Cause Mortality After Breast Cancer Surgery: Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study)

  • 박미진;정우진;이선미;박종혁;장후선
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.330-340
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: This study aims to evaluate and explain the socioeconomic inequalities of all-cause mortality after breast cancer surgery in South Korea. Methods: This population based study included all 8868 females who underwent radical mastectomy for breast cancer between January 2002 and June 2003. Follow-up for mortality continued from January 2002 to June 2006. The patients were divided into 4 socioeconomic classes according to their socioeconomic status as defined by the National Health Insurance contribution rate. The relationship between socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality after breast cancer surgery was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model with adjusting for age, the Charlson’s index score, emergency hospitalization, the type of hospital and the hospital ownership. Results: Those in the lowest socioeconomic status group had a significantly higher hazard ratio of 2.09 (95% CI =1.50 - 2.91) compared with those in the highest socioeconomic group after controlling for all the identifiable confounding variables. For allcause mortality after radical mastectomy, all the other income groups showed significantly higher 3-year mortality rates than did the highest income group. Conclusions: The socioeconomic status of breast cancer patients should be considered as an independent prognostic factor that affects all-cause mortality after radical mastectomy, and this is possibly due to a delayed diagnosis, limited access or minimal treatment leading to higher mortality. This study may provide tangible support to intensify surveillance and treatment for breast cancer among low socioeconomic class women.

Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Breast Cancer Referred to Omitted Cancer Research Center in Iran

  • Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Shahmirzalou, Parviz;Zayeri, Farid;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil;Hadizadeh, Mohammad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권12호
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    • pp.5081-5084
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    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that starts from cells of the breast and is seen mainly in women. It's the most common cancer in women worldwide and is a major threat to health. The purpose of this study was to fit a Cox proportional hazards model for prediction and determination of years of survival in Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 366 patients with breast cancer in the Cancer Research Center were included in the study. A Cox proportional hazard model was used with variables such as tumor grade, number of removed positive lymph nodes, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) expression and several other variables. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted and multi-years of survival were evaluated. Results: The mean age of patients was 48.1 years. Consumption of fatty foods (p=0.033), recurrence (p<0.001), tumor grade (p=0.046) and age (p=0.017) were significant variables. The overall 1- year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were found to be 93%, 75% and 52%. Conclusions: Use of covariates and the Cox proportional hazard model are effective in predicting the survival of individuals and this model distinguished 4 effective factors in the survival of patients.

How to Explain the Contradiction of microRNA 200c Expression and Survival in Solid Tumors?: a Meta-analysis

  • Wang, Hui-Yu;Shen, Jie;Jiang, Chun-Ping;Liu, Bao-Rui
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권8호
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    • pp.3687-3690
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    • 2014
  • MicroRNA 200c is a microRNA 200 family member that plays an important role in regulation of the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT). The prognostic value of microRNA 200c in solid tumors remains controversial because of inconsistent data. Here, we report a meta-analysis of the association of microRNA 200c expression and survival in patients with solid tumors. Pubmed was searched up to November 2013 for studies investigating microRNA 200c expression and overall survival (OS) in solid tumors. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for OS were extracted from each study. Pooled HR and CIs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects models. A total of five studies evaluating colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer and endometrial cancer were included in the analysis. Data were divided into tissue microRNA 200c expression group and serum microRNA 200c expression group. The combined HRs [95%CIs] estimated for OS were 0.62 [0.42-0.91] and 2.16 [1.32-3.52] respectively. Low expression of microRNA 200c in tumor tissue and high expression of microRNA 200c in serum are associated with worse survival in solid tumors. Further study is needed to elucidate this contradiction.

Determination of a Change Point in the Age at Diagnosis of Breast Cancer Using a Survival Model

  • Abdollahi, Mahbubeh;Hajizadeh, Ebrahim;Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Haghighat, Shahpar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권sup3호
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2016
  • Breast cancer, the second cause of cancer-related death after lung cancer and the most common cancer in women after skin cancer, is curable if detected in early stages of clinical presentation. Knowledge as to any age cut-off points which might have significance for prognostic groups is important in screening and treatment planning. Therefore, determining a change-point could improve resource allocation. This study aimed to determine if a change point for survival might exist in the age of breast cancer diagnosis. This study included 568 cases of breast cancer that were registered in Breast Cancer Research Center, Tehran, Iran, during the period 1986-2006 and were followed up to 2012. In the presence of curable cases of breast cancer, a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was estimated using a mixture survival cure model. The data were analyzed using SPSS (versions 20) and R (version 2.15.0) software. The results revealed that a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was at 50 years age. Based on our estimation, 35% of the patients diagnosed with breast cancer at age less than or equal to 50 years of age were cured while the figure was 57% for those diagnosed after 50 years of age. Those in the older age group had better survival compared to their younger counterparts during 12 years of follow up. Our results suggest that it is better to estimate change points in age for cancers which are curable in early stages using survival cure models, and that the cure rate would increase with timely screening for breast cancer.

Associations of Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors with Stage at Diagnosis of Breast Cancer

  • Mohaghegh, Pegah;Yavari, Parvin;Akbari, Mohammad Esmail;Abadi, Alireza;Ahmadi, Farzane
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.1627-1631
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    • 2015
  • Background: Stage at diagnosis is one of the most important prognostic factors of breast cancer survival. Because in the breast cancer case this may vary with socioeconomic characteristics, this study was performed to recognize the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors with stage at diagnosis in Iran. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted on 526 patients suffering from breast cancer and registered in Cancer Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences from 2008 to 2013. A reliable and valid questionnaire about family levels of socioeconomic status filled in by interviewing the patients via phone. For analyzing the data, Multinomial logistic regression, Kendal tau-b correlation coefficient and Contingency Coefficient tests were executed by SPSS22. Economic status, educational attainment of patient and household head and/or a combination of these were considered as parameters for socioeconomic status. First, the relationship between stage at diagnosis and demographic and socioeconomic status was assessed in univariate analysis then these relationships assessed in two different models of multinomial logistic regression. Results: The mean age of the patients was 48.3 (SD=11.4). According to the results of this study, there were significant relationships between stage at diagnosis of breast cancer with patient education (p=0.011), living place (p=0.044) and combined socioeconomic status (p=0.024). These relationships persisted in multiple multinomial logistic regressions. Other variables, however, had no significant correlation. Conclusions: Patient education, combined socioeconomic status and living place are important variables in stage at diagnosis of breast cancer in Iranian women. Interventions have to be applied with the aim of raising women's accessibility to diagnostic and medical facilities and also awareness in order to reducing delay in referring. In addition, covering breast cancer screening services by insurance is recommended.

Role of CD10 Immunohistochemical Expression in Predicting Aggressive Behavior of Phylloides Tumors

  • Tariq, Muhammad Usman;Haroon, Saroona;Kayani, Naila
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권8호
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    • pp.3147-3152
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    • 2015
  • Background: Phylloides tumors are rare breast neoplasms with a variable clinical course depending on the tumor category. Along with histologic features, the role of immunohistochemical staining has been studied in predicting their behavior. Objectives: Our aim was to evaluate the role of CD 10 immunohistochemical staining in predicting survival, recurrence and metastasis in phylloides tumor. We also evaluated correlations of other clinicopathological features with overall and disease-free survival. Materials and Methods: CD10 expression was studied in 82 phylloides tumors divided into recurrent/metastatic and non-recurrent/non-metastatic cohorts. The Chi-square test was applied to determine the significance of differences in CD10 expression between outcome cohorts. Uni and multivariate survival analyses were also performed using log-rank test and Cox regression hazard models. Results: All 3 metastatic cases, 5 out of 6 (83.3%) recurrent cases and 37out of 73 (50.7%) non-recurrent and non-metastatic cases expressed significant (2+ or 3+) staining for CD10. This expression significantly varied between outcome cohorts (p<0.03). Tumor category and histological features including mitotic count and necrosis correlated significantly with recurrence and metastasis. A significant decrease in overall and disease free survival was seen with CD10 positivity, malignant category, increased mitoses and necrosis. Neither CD10 expression nor any other clinicopathologic feature proved to be an independent prognostic indicator in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: CD10 immunohistochemical staining can be used as a predictive tool for phylloides tumor but this expression should be interpreted in conjunction with tumor category.

Greater Lymph Node Retrieval Improves Survival in Node-Negative Resected Gastric Cancer in the United States

  • Mirkin, Katelin A.;Hollenbeak, Christopher S.;Wong, Joyce
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.306-318
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Guidelines in Western countries recommend retrieving ${\geq}15$ lymph nodes (LNs) during gastric cancer resection. This study sought to determine whether the number of examined lymph nodes (eLNs), a proxy for lymphadenectomy, effects survival in node-negative disease. Materials and Methods: The US National Cancer Database (2003-2011) was reviewed for node-negative gastric adenocarcinoma. Treatment was categorized by neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) vs. initial resection, and further stratified by eLN. Kaplan-Meier and Weibull models were used to analyze overall survival. Results: Of the 1,036 patients who received NAT, 40.5% had ${\leq}10eLN$, and most underwent proximal gastrectomy (67.8%). In multivariate analysis, greater eLN was associated with improved survival (eLN 16-20: HR, 0.71; P=0.039, eLN 21-30: HR, 0.55; P=0.001). Of the 2,795 patients who underwent initial surgery, 42.5% had ${\leq}10eLN$, and the majority underwent proximal gastrectomy (57.2%). In multivariate analysis, greater eLN was associated with improved survival (eLN 11-15: HR, 0.81; P=0.021, eLN 16-20: HR, 0.73; P=0.004, eLN 21-30: HR, 0.62; P<0.001, and eLN >30: HR, 0.58; P<0.001). Conclusions: In the United States, the majority of node-negative gastrectomies include suboptimal eLN. In node-negative gastric cancer, greater LN retrieval appears to have therapeutic and prognostic value, irrespective of initial treatment, suggesting a survival benefit to meticulous lymphadenectomy.