• 제목/요약/키워드: Prognostic model

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Prognostic Model Built on Blood-based Biomarkers in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

  • He, Wen-Zhuo;Jiang, Chang;Yin, Chen-Xi;Guo, Gui-Fang;Rong, Ru-Ming;Qiu, Hui-Juan;Chen, Xu-Xian;Zhang, Bei;Xia, Liang-Ping
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권17호
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    • pp.7327-7331
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    • 2014
  • Background: We had previously showed that the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), ${\gamma}$-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are prognostic factors for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. In this study we developed a prognostic model based on these three indices. Materials and Methods: A total of 243 patients who were initially diagnosed as mCRC between 2005 and 2010 in the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were studied. The endpoint was overall survival (OS). Results: NLR>3, elevated GGT and elevated CEA were confirmed as independent risk factors which could predict poor prognosis. Patients could be divided into three groups according to the number of risk factors they had. Those with two or three were defined as the high risk group, individuals with one risk factor as the modest risk group and patients without risk factor as the low risk group. The OS values for these three groups were 16.2 months (2.80~68.8), 24.2 months (4.07~79.0), and 37.2 months (12.6~87.8), respectively (p<0.001). Conclusions: We developed a simple but useful model based on NLR, GGT and CEA to provide prognostic information to clinical practice in highly selected mCRC patients. Further prospective and multi-center studies are warranted to test our model.

Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is prognostic for early recurrence after curative intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma resection

  • Woo Jin Choi;Fiorella Murillo Perez;Annabel Gravely;Tommy Ivanics;Marco P. A. W. Claasen;Liza Abraham;Phillipe Abreu;Robin Visser;Steven Gallinger;Bettina E. Hansen;Gonzalo Sapisochin
    • 한국간담췌외과학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.158-165
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: Within two years of surgery, 70% of resected intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) recur. Better biomarkers are needed to identify those at risk of "early recurrence" (ER). In this study, we defined ER and investigated whether preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic-inflammatory index were prognostic of both overall relapse and ER after curative hepatectomy for iCCA. Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for iCCA between 2005 and 2017 were created. The cut-off timepoint for the ER of iCCA was estimated using a piecewise linear regression model. Univariable analyses of recurrence were conducted for the overall, early, and late recurrence periods. For the early and late recurrence periods, multivariable Cox regression with time-varying regression coefficient analysis was used. Results: A total of 113 patients were included in this study. ER was defined as recurrence within 12 months of a curative resection. Among the included patients, 38.1% experienced ER. In the univariable model, a higher preoperative NLR (> 4.3) was significantly associated with an increased risk of recurrence overall and in the first 12 months after curative surgery. In the multivariable model, a higher NLR was associated with a higher recurrence rate overall and in the ER period (≤ 12 months), but not in the late recurrence period. Conclusions: Preoperative NLR was prognostic of both overall recurrence and ER after curative iCCA resection. NLR is easily obtained before and after surgery and should be integrated into ER prediction tools to guide preoperative treatments and intensify postoperative follow-up.

Count of platelet and mean platelet volume score: serologic prognostic factor in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

  • Park, Jae Woo;Kim, Chul-Hwan;Ha, Yong Chan;Kim, Moon Young;Park, Sung Min
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • 제43권5호
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: TNM staging, especially for lymph node metastasis, is the scoring system most widely used among prognostic factors for cancer survival. Several biomarkers have been studied as serologic markers, but their specificity is low and clinical applications are difficult. This study aimed to establish a scoring system for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) using platelet (PLT) and mean platelet volume (MPV) levels measured postoperatively and to evaluate their significance as prognostic factors. Materials and Methods: We studied 40 patients admitted to the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of Dankook University Hospital who were diagnosed with primary OSCC histopathologically between May 2006 and May 2012. Clinical pathological information obtained from the medical records of each patient included age, sex, height, weight, tumor location, degree of differentiation, tumor diameter, lymph node metastasis, TNM stage, and other test values including white blood cell, MPV, PLT, C-reactive protein (CRP), and albumin obtained through a test conducted within 7 days before surgery. Count of platelet (COP)-MPV Score: Patients with both PLT and MPV values below the cut-off values were defined as score 0 (group A). Patients with at least one of the two higher than the cut-off value were defined as score 1 (group B). Results: Univariate analyses showed N-metastasis, COP-MPV (A vs B), PLT, platelet-lymphocyte ratio, and CRP were statistically significant prognostic factors. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed N-metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 6.227, P=0.016) and COP-MPV (A vs B) (HR 18.992, P=0.013) were independent prognostic factors with a significant effect on survival. Conclusion: COP-MPV score is a simple and cost-effective test method and is considered a more effective prognostic factor than other considered factors in predicting the prognosis of OSCC patients.

Efficacy of Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine and Prognostic Value of Peripheral Neuropathy in Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

  • You, Min Su;Ryu, Ji Kon;Choi, Young Hoon;Choi, Jin Ho;Huh, Gunn;Paik, Woo Hyun;Lee, Sang Hyub;Kim, Yong-Tae
    • Gut and Liver
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.728-735
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    • 2018
  • Background/Aims: The combination of nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine (nab-P/Gem) is widely used for treating metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC). We aimed to evaluate the therapeutic outcomes and prognostic role of treatment-related peripheral neuropathy in patients with MPC treated with nab-P/Gem in clinical practice. Methods: MPC patients treated with nab-P/Gem as the first-line chemotherapy were included. All 88 Korean patients underwent at least two cycles of nab-P/Gem combination chemotherapy (125 and $1,000mg/m^2$, respectively). Treatment-related adverse events were monitored through periodic follow-ups. Overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazards regression linear model was applied to assess prognostic factors. To evaluate the prognostic value of treatment-related peripheral neuropathy, the landmark point analysis was used. Results: Patients underwent a mean of $6.7{\pm}4.2$ cycles during $6.3{\pm}4.4$ months. The median overall survival and progression-free survival rates were 14.2 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.8 to 20.3 months) and 8.4 months (95% CI, 7.1 to 13.2 months), respectively. The disease control rate was 84.1%; a partial response and stable disease were achieved in 30 (34.1%) and 44 (50.0%) patients, respectively. Treatment-related peripheral neuropathy developed in 52 patients (59.1%), and 13 (14.8%) and 16 (18.2%) patients experienced grades 2 and 3 neuropathy, respectively. In the landmark model, at 6 months, treatment-related peripheral neuropathy did not have a significant correlation with survival (p=0.089). Conclusions: Nab-P/Gem is a reasonable choice for treating MPC, as it shows a considerable disease control rate while the treatment-related peripheral neuropathy was tolerable. The prognostic role of treatment-related neuropathy was limited.

S100A14 Promotes the Growth and Metastasis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

  • Zhao, Fu-Tao;Jia, Zhan-Sheng;Yang, Qun;Song, Le;Jiang, Xiao-Jing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.3831-3836
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    • 2013
  • Background: S100A14 has recently been implicated in the progress of several types of cancers. This study aimed to investigate the clinical significance and possible mechanisms of action of S100A14 in the invasion and metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: S100A14 expression in HCC was detected at mRNA and protein levels and its prognostic significance was assessed. Functional roles of S100A14 in HCC were investigated using MTT, BrdU, wound healing, transwell invasion assay and HCC metastatic mouse model. Results: S100A14 was significantly elevated in HCC tissues, correlated with multiple tumor nodes, high Edmondson-Steiner grade and vascular invasion. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the S100A14 expression level was a significant and independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) of HCC patients (hazard ratio=1.98, 95% confidence interval=1.14-3.46, P=0.013). S100A14 promoted cell proliferation, invasion and metastasis of HCC in vitro and in vivo. Conclusion: These results suggest S100A14 is a novel prognostic marker and therapeutic target for HCC.

HOXB7 Predicts Poor Clinical Outcome in Patients with Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer

  • Long, Qing-Yun;Zhou, Jun;Zhang, Xiao-Long;Cao, Jiang-Hui
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.1563-1566
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    • 2014
  • Background: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) accounts for most esophageal cancer in Asia, and is the sixth common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Previous studies indicated HOXB7 is overexpressed in ESCC tissues, but data on prognostic value are limited. Methods: A total of 76 advanced ESCC cases were investigated. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was used to detect the expression levels of HOXB7 and Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models to determine prognostic significance. Stratified analysis was also performed according to lymph node (LN) status. Results: Kaplan-Meier curve analysis indicated that HOXB7 positive patients had significantly shorter overall survival (OS) than HOXB7 negative patients. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model indicated only TNM stage and HOXB7 expression to be independent predictors of overall survival of advanced ESCC patients. HOXB7 indicated poor OS in both lymph node negative (LN-) and lymph node positive (LN+) patients. Conclusion: HOXB7 predicts poor prognosis of advanced ESCC patients and can be applied as an independent prognostic predictor.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram Based on Clinical and CT Features for Adverse Outcome Prediction in Patients with COVID-19

  • Yingyan Zheng;Anling Xiao;Xiangrong Yu;Yajing Zhao;Yiping Lu;Xuanxuan Li;Nan Mei;Dejun She;Dongdong Wang;Daoying Geng;Bo Yin
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권8호
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    • pp.1007-1017
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    • 2020
  • Objective: The purpose of our study was to investigate the predictive abilities of clinical and computed tomography (CT) features for outcome prediction in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Materials and Methods: The clinical and CT data of 238 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in our two hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. One hundred sixty-six patients (103 males; age 43.8 ± 12.3 years) were allocated in the training cohort and 72 patients (38 males; age 45.1 ± 15.8 years) from another independent hospital were assigned in the validation cohort. The primary composite endpoint was admission to an intensive care unit, use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. A nomogram was constructed based on the combination of clinical and CT features, and its prognostic performance was externally tested in the validation group. The predictive value of the combined model was compared with models built on the clinical and radiological attributes alone. Results: Overall, 35 infected patients (21.1%) in the training cohort and 10 patients (13.9%) in the validation cohort experienced adverse outcomes. Underlying comorbidity (hazard ratio [HR], 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.67-6.71; p < 0.001), lymphocyte count (HR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.04-0.38; p < 0.001) and crazy-paving sign (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.03-4.48; p = 0.042) were the independent factors. The nomogram displayed a concordance index (C-index) of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.76-0.88), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort with a C-index of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82-0.96). The combined model provided the best performance over the clinical or radiological model (p < 0.050). Conclusion: Underlying comorbidity, lymphocyte count and crazy-paving sign were independent predictors of adverse outcomes. The prognostic nomogram based on the combination of clinical and CT features could be a useful tool for predicting adverse outcomes of patients with COVID-19.

Prognostic Value of Coronary CT Angiography for Predicting Poor Cardiac Outcome in Stroke Patients without Known Cardiac Disease or Chest Pain: The Assessment of Coronary Artery Disease in Stroke Patients Study

  • Sung Hyun Yoon;Eunhee Kim;Yongho Jeon;Sang Yoon Yi;Hee-Joon Bae;Ik-Kyung Jang;Joo Myung Lee;Seung Min Yoo;Charles S. White;Eun Ju Chun
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.1055-1064
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To assess the incremental prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in comparison to a clinical risk model (Framingham risk score, FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) for future cardiac events in ischemic stroke patients without chest pain. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 1418 patients with acute stroke who had no previous cardiac disease and underwent CCTA, including CACS. Stenosis degree and plaque types (high-risk, non-calcified, mixed, or calcified plaques) were assessed as CCTA variables. High-risk plaque was defined when at least two of the following characteristics were observed: low-density plaque, positive remodeling, spotty calcification, or napkin-ring sign. We compared the incremental prognostic value of CCTA for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over CACS and FRS. Results: The prevalence of any plaque and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) (stenosis ≥ 50%) were 70.7% and 30.2%, respectively. During the median follow-up period of 48 months, 108 patients (7.6%) experienced MACE. Increasing FRS, CACS, and stenosis degree were positively associated with MACE (all p < 0.05). Patients with high-risk plaque type showed the highest incidence of MACE, followed by non-calcified, mixed, and calcified plaque, respectively (log-rank p < 0.001). Among the prediction models for MACE, adding stenosis degree to FRS showed better discrimination and risk reclassification compared to FRS or the FRS + CACS model (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, incorporating plaque type in the prediction model significantly improved reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.08; p = 0.023) and showed the highest discrimination index (C-statistics, 0.85). However, the addition of CACS on CCTA with FRS did not add to the prediction ability for MACE (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Assessment of stenosis degree and plaque type using CCTA provided additional prognostic value over CACS and FRS to risk stratify stroke patients without prior history of CAD better.

흉추강 협착증의 수술적 치료 결과와 예후인자에 관한 분석 (The Analysis on Surgical Result and Prognostic Factors of Thoracic Spinal Stenosis)

  • 장웅규;정상기;김동윤;정천기;김현집
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제30권6호
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    • pp.761-768
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    • 2001
  • Objective : To describe the underlying causes, surgical results, and prognostic factors in thoracic stenosis causing myelopathy, retrospective analysis for 28 cases of thoracic stenosis with surgery was performed Materials & Method : Twenty-eight patients(male, 15 ; female, 13) who underwent decompressive surgery for thoracic stenosis between 1987 and 1997 were analyzed. The mean age was 49 and the mean follow-up was 30.6 months. Statistical analysis with $SPSS^{(R)}$ was performed. Chi-square test was used for the analysis of relationship between subjects and multivariate analysis with general linear model was used to find prognostic factors. Result : Degenerative spondylosis was the most common cause, and three cases were associated with systemic diseases. Decompressive laminectomy was done in 23 cases, anterior decompression in four cases, and combined decompression in one case. Ossification of ligamentum flavum was found in 18 cases, facet hypertrophy in 13, ossification of posterior longitudinal ligament in six, and ventral spur in four. Postoperatively, 16 patients improved functionally and 4 patients worsened. The group of which initial symptom duration was less than two years showed better result(p=0.003). The group with sufficient decompression and no additional proximal stenosis had better outcome(p=0.002, p=0.001). Conclusion : Chronic myelopathy caused by thoracic stenosis can be reversible with appropriate decompression.

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Elevated PIVKA-II is Associated with Early Recurrence and Poor Prognosis in BCLC 0-A Hepatocellular Carcinomas

  • Wang, Bei-Li;Tan, Qi-Wen;Gao, Xing-Hui;Wu, Jiong;Guo, Wei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권16호
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    • pp.6673-6678
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    • 2014
  • Background: To investigate the prognostic value of serum PIVKA-II (prothrombin induced by the absence of vitamin K or antagonist-II) in BCLC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer) 0-A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection. Materials and Methods: Preoperative sera were collected from 140 patients with BCLC 0-A HCCs undergoing curative resection during 2011-2012 in Zhongshan Hospital. Follow-up ended on November 2013. ELISA was used to detect the serum concentrations of preoperative PIVKA-II. The prognostic value of PIVKA-II and other clinicopathological factors was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During follow-up, 39 of 140 patients suffered recurrence and the 1-year recurrence rate was 27.9%. The high-PIVKA-II expression group had lower 1-year time to progression (TTP) compared with the low-expression group (54.8% vs 20.2%, p<0.001). Patients with high preoperative PIVKA-II expression showed a relatively higher risk of developing postoperative recurrence than those with low expression in the low-recurrence-risk subgroups, including ${\alpha}$-fetoprotein ${\leq}400ng/mL$ (45.4% vs 16.7%; p=0.006), tumor size ${\leq}5cm$ (54.2% vs 18.1%; p<0.001), single tumor (56.0% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), absence of satellite lesions (53.3% vs 19.8%; p=0.001), absence of vascular invasion (52.6% vs 14.9%; p=0.002), and Edmondson stage I/II (60.9% vs 20.3%; p<0.001). PIVKA-II was the strongest independent prognostic factor for TTP (hazard ratio, 2.877; 95% CI 1.524-5.429; p=0.001). Conclusions: Elevated PIVKA-II is associated with early recurrence of BCLC 0-A HCC after curative resection and can be considered a novel prognostic predictor.