• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prognostic model

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Prognosis of Recurrence after Complete Resection in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

  • Choi, Pil Jo;Jeong, Sang Seok;Yoon, Sung Sil
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2013
  • Background: Tumor recurrence is the most common cause of treatment failure, even after complete resection of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this study, we investigated the prognosis of patients with early recurrence in order to identify independent risk factors related to early recurrence. Methods: Between February 1995 and December 2012, 242 patients who underwent surgical resection for stage I NSCLC at Dong-A University Hospital were reviewed. The factors predicting overall survival (OS) and early recurrence were investigated. We also investigated the relationship between the patterns and period of recurrence and clinicopathological factors. Results: For patients with stage IA and IB NSCLC, the 5-year OS rate was 75.7% and 57.3% (p=0.006), respectively. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that gender (p=0.004), comorbidity number (p=0.038), resection type (p=0.002), and tumor size (p=0.022) were the statistically significant predictors of OS. Moreover, the multivariate analysis revealed that smoking history (p=0.023) and histologic grade (p=0.012) were the independent predictors of early recurrence. Additionally, only histologic grade (poor differentiation) was found to be significantly associated with a higher frequency of distant metastasis; there was no relationship between the patterns and period of recurrence and clinicopathological factors. Conclusion: The present study demonstrated that smoking history and histologic grade were independent prognostic factors for early recurrence within two years in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Patients with these predictive factors may be good candidates for adjuvant therapy.

Predictive Factors of Survival Time of Breast Cancer in Kurdistan Province of Iran between 2006-2014: A Cox Regression Approach

  • Karimi, Asrin;Delpisheh, Ali;Sayehmiri, Kourosh;Saboori, Hojjatollah;Rahimi, Ezzatollah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.19
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    • pp.8483-8488
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    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second most common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women, following gastric carcinoma. The survival of these patients depends on several factors, which are very important to identify in order to understand the natural history of the disease. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, 313 consecutive women with pathologically-proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a seven-year period (January 2006 until March 2014) at Towhid hospital, Sanandaj city, Kurdistan province of Iran, were recruited. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for data analysis, and finally those factors that showed significant association on univariate analysis were entered in a Cox regression model. Results: the mean age of patients was $46.10{\pm}10.81$ years. Based on Kaplan-Meier method median of survival time was 81 months and 5 year survival rate was $75%{\pm}0.43$. Tumor metastasis (HR=9.06, p=0.0001), relapse (HR=3.20, p=0.001), clinical stage of cancer (HR=2.30, p=0.03) and place of metastasis (p=0.0001) had significant associations with the survival rate variation. Patients with tumor metastasis had the lowest five-year survival rate (37%)and among them patients who had brain metastasis were in the worst condition (5 year survival rate= $11%{\pm}0.10$). Conclusions: Our findings support the observation that those women with higher stages of breast malignancies (especially with metastatic cancer) have less chance of surviving the disease. Furthermore, screening programs and early detection of breast cancer may help to increase the survival of those women who are at risk of breast cancer.

A RAMS Atmospheric Field I Predicted by an Improved Initial Input Dataset - An Application of NOAA SST data - (초기 입력 자료의 개선에 의한 RAMS 기상장의 예측 I - NOAA SST자료의 적용 -)

  • Won, Gyeong-Mee;Jeong, Gi-Ho;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Jung, Woo-Sik;Lee, Kang-Yoel
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.489-499
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    • 2009
  • In an effort to examine the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS ver. 4.3) to the initial meteorological input data, detailed observational data of NOAA satellite SST (Sea Surface Temperature) was employed. The NOAA satellite SST which is currently provided daily as a seven-day mean value with resolution of 0.1 $^{\circ}$ grid spacing was used instead of the climatologically derived monthly mean SST using in RAMS. In addition, the RAMS SST data must be changed new one because it was constructed in 1993. For more realistic initial meteorological fields, the NOAA satellite SST was incorporated into the RAMS-preprocess package named ISentropic Analysis package (ISAN). When the NOAA SST data was imposed to the initial condition of prognostic RAMS model, the resultant performance of near surface atmospheric fields was discussed and compared with that of default option of SST. We got the good results that the new SST data was made in a standard RAMS format and showed the detailed variation of SST. As the modeling grid became smaller, the SST differences of the NOAA SST run and the RAMS SST43 (default) run in diurnal variation were very minor but this research can apply to further study for the realistic SST situation and the development in predicting regional atmospheric field which imply the regional circulation due to differential surface heating between sea and land or climatological phenomenon.

The Younger Patients Have More Better Prognosis in Limited Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer

  • Kim, Hye-Jin;Choi, Chang-Min;Kim, Seul-Gi
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.79 no.4
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    • pp.274-281
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    • 2016
  • Background: Factors associated with the prognosis of patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is relatively unknown, than of those with non-small cell lung cancer. This study was undertaken to identify the prognostic factors of SCLC. Methods: The medical records of 333 patients diagnosed with SCLC at tertiary hospital from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by age (${\leq}65$ years vs. >65 years) and by extent of disease (limited disease [LD] vs extensive disease [ED]). Overall survival and progression free survival rates were determined. Factors associated with prognosis were calculated using Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Results: Most baseline characteristics were similar in the LD and ED groups. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), first chemotherapy regimen, and prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) differed significantly in patients with LD and ED. Mean ECOG PS was significantly lower (p<0.001), first-line chemotherapy with etoposide-cisplatin was more frequent than with etoposide-carboplatin (p<0.001), and PCI was performed more frequently (p=0.019) in LD-SCLC than in ED-SCLC. Prognosis in the LD group was better in younger (${\leq}65$ years) than in older (>65 years) patients, but prognosis in the ED group was unrelated to age. Conclusion: This study showed that overall survival (OS) was significantly improved in younger than in older patients with LD-SCLC. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that age, PCI and the sum of cycles were significant predictors of OS in patients with LD-SCLC. However, prognosis in the ED group was unrelated to age.

The Air Quality Modeling According to the Emission Scenarios on Complex Area (복잡지형에서의 배출량 시나리오에 따른 대기질 수치모의)

  • Lee, Hwa-Woon;Choi, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Lim, Heon-Ho;Lee, Kang-Yoel;Sung, Kyoung-Hee;Jung, Woo-Sik;Park, Jeong-Im;Moon, Nan-Kyung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.921-928
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this work is the air quality modeling according to the scenarios of emission on complex terrain. The prognostic meteorological fields and air quality field over complex areas of Seoul, Korea are generated by the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and the Third Generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (Models - 3/CMAQ), respectively. The emission source was driven from the Clean Air Policy Support System of the Korea National institute of Environmental Research (CAPSS), which is a 1 km x 1 km grid in South Korea during 2003. In comparison of air quality fields, the simulated averaged $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ concentration on complex terrain in control case were decreased as compared with base case. Particularly $PM_{10}$ revealed most substantial localized differences by $(18{\sim}24{\mu}g/m^3)$. The reduction rate of $PM_{10},\;NO_2,\;and\;O_3$ is respectively 18.88, 13.34 and 4.17%.

Clinical Study of Malignant Melanoma for recent 14 years (악성 흑색종에 대한 14년간의 임상적 고찰)

  • Park, Dong Ha;Seo, Seung Jo;Park, Myong Chul;Pae, Nam Suk;Lee, Il Jae
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.299-305
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: Recently, the incidence of malignant melanoma has been steadily increasing. Malignant melanoma is already known to have poorer prognosis than other primary skin cancers. Despite the poor prognosis, it is relatively less known to the public so that a number of patients visit hospital carrying advanced stage tumor. Yet, extensive study about malignant melanoma is currently insufficient, and specific guidelines and statistical figures in Korea are almost inexistent. Therefore, authors reviewed patients with malignant melanoma who have visited our hospital for last 14 years. Methods: Between January 1994 and January 2008, 62 patients were diagnosed with malignant melanoma at our hospital. A retrospective study was performed with data from patients' charts and biopsy results. Annual incidence, mean age of onset, gender, tumor location, tumor thickness, pathologic ulceration, clinicopathologic subtype, and clinical AJCC stage were evaluated. Analysis of factors associated with survival were performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Kaplan - Meier method was used to generate survival curves. Results: Clinicopathologic features of 62 patients (32 male, 30 female) with average age of 57 years were evaluated. Most lesions were found in lower limb, and the most common subtype was acral lentiginous melanoma. We could also find that age, tumor thickness, and clinical stage were the only significant prognostic factors. Conclusion: Clinicopathologic features of malignant melanoma were analyzed in this study, but the result is not ready to be generalized because the number of cases is too small. Further study must be performed to report clinical guidelines for prognosis and treatment for malignant melanoma patients in Korea.

Prediction of Time to Recurrence and Influencing Factors for Gastric Cancer in Iran

  • Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Ghannad, Masoud Sabouri;Safari, Maliheh;Sadighi, Sanambar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2639-2642
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    • 2012
  • Background: The patterns of gastric cancer recurrence vary across societies. We designed the current study in an attempt to evaluate and reveal the outbreak of the recurrence patterns of gastric cancer and also prediction of time to recurrence and its effected factors in Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was performed from March 2003 to February 2007. Demographic characteristics, clinical and pathological diagnosis and classification including pathologic stage, tumor grade, tumor site and tumor size in of patients with GC recurrent were collected from patients' data files. To evaluate of factors affected on the relapse of the GC patients, gender, age at diagnosis, treatment type and Hgb were included in the research. Data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models. Results: After treatment, 82 patients suffered recurrence, 42, 33 and 17 by the ends of first, second and third years. The mean ( SD) and median ( IQR) time to recurrence in patients with GC were 25.5 (20.6-30.1) and 21.5 (15.6-27.1) months, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis logistic regression showed that only pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affected the recurrence. Conclusions: We found that pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affect on the recurrence of GC which has a high positive prognostic value and might be functional for better follow-up and selecting the patients at risk. We also showed time to recurrence to be an important factor for follow-up of patients.

Predictive Role of ERCC1 and XPD Genetic Polymorphisms in Survival of Chinese Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Receiving Chemotherapy

  • Zhang, Zhen-Yong;Tian, Xin;Wu, Rong;Liang, Yuan;Jin, Xue-Ying
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2583-2586
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    • 2012
  • Aim: There is increasing evidence that ERCC1 and XPD have roles in response to chemotherapy among patients with NSCLC, but the results are conflicting. Therefore, we conducted the present prospective study in a Chinese population. Methods: A total of 632 primary NSCLC patients were included, followed-up from May 2006 to May 2011. Polymorphisms were detected by real time PCR with TaqMan probse, using genomic DNA extracted from peripheral blood samples. The Cox regression model was used to analyze the hazard ratios (HR) for ERCC1 and XPD. Results: The median time of follow-up was 31.6 months. Our results showed the ERCC1 118 T/T(HR=1.65, 95% CI=1.17-2.43) and XPD 751 Gln/Gln genotypes (HR=1.52, 95%CI=1.04-2.08) were associated with an increased risk of death from NSCLC. Moreover, the ERCC118 T allele and XPD 751 Gln allele genotypes had a more higher risk of death from NSCLC among both ex-smokers and current smokers. Conclusion: In summary, ERCC1 and XPD gene polymorphisms might provide better prognostic predictive information for NSCLC patients in Chinese populations, with smoking possibly interacting with the genotypes.

ATAD2 is Highly Expressed in Ovarian Carcinomas and Indicates Poor Prognosis

  • Wan, Wei-Na;Zhang, Yi-Xia;Wang, Xue-Mei;Liu, Yan-Jun;Zhang, Yu-Qin;Que, Yan-Hong;Zhao, Wen-Jing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.2777-2783
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to explore the expression of ATAD2 in ovarian tumor tissue as well as its relationship with degree of malignancy. Tumor tissue from 110 cases of ovarian cancer was collected in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki for evaluation of ATAD2 expression iimmunohistochemistry, quantitative PCR (qPCR) and Western blotting. The correlation between the ATAD2 expression and and the prognosis of ovarian cancer was evaluated by Cox regression model. In addition, HO-8910 and OVCAR-3 cells were transfected with two siRNAs targeting ATAD2. Cell viability was evaluated with MTT assay, and cell migration by transwell migration assay. ATAD2 was shown to be highly expressed in 65.5% (72/110) of ovarian cancer cases, both at transcriptional and protein levels. Moreover, highly expression was positively correlated with degree of malignancy. Knock-down of ATAD2 in HO-8910 and OVCAR-3 cells was found to reduce cell migration. In addition, follow-up visits of the patients demonstrated that the 5-year survival rate was lower in patients with high expression of ATAD2. Our study suggested that ovarian tumor tissue may have highly expressed ATAD2, which is associated with tumor stage, omentum-metastasis, ascites and CA-125. Increased ATAD2 may play important roles in tumor proliferation and migration. ATAD2 could serve in particular as a prognostic marker and a therapeutic target for ovarian cancer.

Fault Detection and Diagnosis for EVA Production Processes Using AE-SOM (AE-SOM을 이용한 EVA 생산 공정 이상 검출 및 진단)

  • Park, Byeong Eon;Ji, Yumi;Sim, Ye Seul;Lee, Kyu-Hwang;Lee, Ho Kyung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.408-415
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the AE-SOM method, which combines auto-encoder and self-organizing map, is used to detect and diagnose faults in EVA production process. Then, the fault propagation pathways are identified using Granger causality test. One year and seven months of operation data were obtained to detect faults of the process, and the process variables of the autoclave reactor are mainly analyzed. In the data pretreatment process, the data are standardized and 200 samples of each grade are randomly chosen to obtain a fault detection model. After that, the best matching unit (BMU) of each grade is confirmed by applying AE-SOM. The faults are determined based on each BMU. When a fault is found, the most causative variable of the fault is identified by using a contribution plot, and the fault propagation pathway is identified by Granger causality test. The prognostic of the two shutdowns is detected, and the fault propagation pathway caused by the faulty variable was analyzed.