• Title/Summary/Keyword: Problem-Solving

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Corporate Credit Rating based on Bankruptcy Probability Using AdaBoost Algorithm-based Support Vector Machine (AdaBoost 알고리즘기반 SVM을 이용한 부실 확률분포 기반의 기업신용평가)

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2011
  • Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are being recognized as competitive tools as compared with other data mining techniques for solving pattern recognition or classification decision problems. Furthermore, many researches, in particular, have proved them more powerful than traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) (Amendolia et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004, Huang et al., 2005; Tay and Cao, 2001; Min and Lee, 2005; Shin et al., 2005; Kim, 2003).The classification decision, such as a binary or multi-class decision problem, used by any classifier, i.e. data mining techniques is so cost-sensitive particularly in financial classification problems such as the credit ratings that if the credit ratings are misclassified, a terrible economic loss for investors or financial decision makers may happen. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the outputs of the classifier into wellcalibrated posterior probabilities-based multiclass credit ratings according to the bankruptcy probabilities. However, SVMs basically do not provide such probabilities. So it required to use any method to create the probabilities (Platt, 1999; Drish, 2001). This paper applied AdaBoost algorithm-based support vector machines (SVMs) into a bankruptcy prediction as a binary classification problem for the IT companies in Korea and then performed the multi-class credit ratings of the companies by making a normal distribution shape of posterior bankruptcy probabilities from the loss functions extracted from the SVMs. Our proposed approach also showed that their methods can minimize the misclassification problems by adjusting the credit grade interval ranges on condition that each credit grade for credit loan borrowers has its own credit risk, i.e. bankruptcy probability.

A Study on the Estimation of the Number of Dental Hygienist and Their Practice (치과위생사 인력추계와 업무범위에 관한 고찰)

  • Shin, Sun-Jung;Son, Jung-Hee;Choi, Yong-Keum;Ryu, Da-Young;Ma, Deuk-Sang
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to suggest the utilization of educated dental hygienist as the solution to the problem of supply and demand in dental clinics that has been brought up recently. Through document research and National Health Personnel Licensing Examination Board homepage, we estimated the number of dental hygienist and the condition of employment as well as gotten a grasp of the current activities carried out by dental hygienists. Furthermore, through discussion of researchers, suggested reform bills to guarantee and extend the work of dental hygienists as well as to train dental assistant. The findings were as follows: As the result of the estimation of dental hygienist, in the year 2009, two dental hygienists structure will be formed in each dental clinic. Currently the practice ratio of non-law activities of dental hygienists is high and in order to increase the practical use of dental hygienists, there is a need to reform bills that guarantee and extend the work of dental hygienists. In order to train new labors, there is a need for cautious consideration to distinguish the activities of existing trained labors, reforming of bills, and considering from various other sectors. From present point of view, solving the problem of existing trained dental hygienists, researching for the plan of utilizing dental hygienists and carrying it into practice must be the priority.

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The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

Evaluation of Future Water Deficit for Anseong River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 안성천 유역의 미래 물 부족량 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Wung;Jung, Jaewon;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2017
  • The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.

A Case Study on the Growth of Learners through the Changemaker TEMPS Program (체인지메이커(Changemaker) TEMPS 프로그램을 통한 학습자의 성장에 대한 사례연구)

  • Kim, Nam Eun;Heo, Young Sun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the meaning of Changemaker education and to investigate the significance of Changemaker education in home economics education through a study of growth of learners applying the TEMPS program. To this end, first, the concept of Changemaker education was defined. Changemaker education is an education that changes society in a positive direction through a process of thinking about, learning about, making, and participating(playing) in various problems that we face in real life and drawing out solutions and share he solutions with others. Second, in this reasearch, the direction of Changemaker education is to make them interested in social problems and solve it and to make both the family and the career life happy and healthy by collaborating with other people. The scope of the contents is defined as "the selection of the content elements of the five domains of the child family, diet nutrition, clothing, housing and consumer life". As a way of teaching, we suggested that the TEMPS phase is followed so that the session purpose is achieved. Third, the Changemaker program consists of five steps of TEMPS among the five key ideas of Changemaker education. T(Thinking) is the step of understanding the problem and thinking about how to solve it, and E(Education) is getting the background for the next step. M(Making) is a step to create a target for problem solving, and P(Participation) and P(Play) are steps to Participation and enjoy. S(Share) is a step of changing the society through the result display, SNS sharing, and class presentation. In this study, 12 programs for middle school and 15 programs for high school were developed on the basis of TEMPS level. Each of the programs consists of 2 to 12 unit hours, which add up to 68 hours in the middle school program and 68 in high school. The learners who participated in the Changemaker program for one year (March 2, 2018~December 31, 2018) will experience improvement in many aspects including the linkage of life and education, practical ability, self-directed learning, self-esteem, sense of achievement and self-reflection, sensory observation, and so on.

A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

The Excluded from Public Pension : Problem, Cause and Policy Measures (공적연금의 사각지대 : 실태, 원인과 정책방안)

  • Seok, Jae-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.53
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    • pp.285-310
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    • 2003
  • As National Pension Scheme for all nation complete in 1999 through expanding application in cities, the public pension including Public Occupational Pension became main axis of old-age income maintenance. After 4years since then, now, it is only half of total National Pension insured persons who have been qualified to receive pension through participate and contribution. The other half of National Pension insured is left the excluded from public pension. This paper is intended to identify scale and characteristics of the excluded from public pension and to analysis its cause, and to explore policy measures for solving the excluded's problem. for current recipients over 60 years old generation, the its excluded's scale is no less than 86% of the old over 60 years. The probability of getting in the excluded is high in case of old elderly and female for current elderly generation. For future recipients 18-59 years working generation, the its excluded's scale is no less than 61% of the 18-59 years total population. The probability of getting in the excluded is high in case of 18-29 years and female for current working generation. As logistic regression analysis determinant factor of paying or not pension contribution for future recipients, it appear that probability of getting in the excluded for current working generation is high in case of younger old, lower education attainment, irregular employee, working at agriculture forestry fishery sector, construction sector, wholesale retail trade restaurants hotels sector, financial institution and insurance real estate renting and leasing sector in comparison with manufacturing sector, occpaying at elementary occupation, professionals technicians and associate professionals, sale and service workers, plant machine operators and assemblers, legislators senior officials and managers in comparison with clerks. The Policy measures for the current recipient old generation have need to reinforce supplemental role of Senior's pension(non-contribution pension) until maturing of public pension, because of no having chance of public pension participants for them. And the Policy measures for the future recipient working generation have need to restructure social security fundamentally corresponding with social-economic change as labour market and family structure etc. The pension system has need to change from one earner one pension to one citizen one pension with citizenship rights. At this point, public pension have need to manage with combining insurance's contribution principle and citizenship principle financing by taxes. Then public pension will become substantially universal social network for old-age income maintenance and we can find real solution for the excluded from.

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Changes in High School Students' Creative Leader Competency through STEAM R&E (STEAM R&E를 통한 고등학생의 창의적 인재 역량 변화)

  • Mun, Kongju;Mun, Jiyeong;Hwang, Yohan;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.825-833
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    • 2017
  • The Korean Ministry of Education has emphasized human resource development with creative and convergent ability for future science and technology development. Korean STEAM Education aims to enhance students' interest and their understanding of science and technology as well as to develop students' creative problem-solving skills. Through STEAM R&E project, students experience self-directed research in order to solve the problem in the context of everyday life. In this study, we aim to find out whether the creative leader competency of high school students changed after they experienced the STEAM R&E project. The creative leader competency consisted of three domains: cognitive, affective, and societal domain. We measured the creative leader competency using the questionnaire scales. The questionnaire was administered to 612 high school students who participated in the 2016 STEAM R&E project. Pre- and post- test scores were collected, and we analyzed it. We compared the mean difference between pre- and post- test scores as well as the mean differences among science high school, gifted school, science core school, and general high school. From the result, we found that all student' creative leader competency improved after participating in the STEAM R&E project in all three domains. The result also showed that students' test scores of science high school and gifted school showed no significant mean differences, while student's scores of both science core school and general high school improved significantly. From the results, we concluded that STEAM R&E activities could be an effective tool in cultivating creative leader competency, especially for general high school students and science core school students. We also suggested that further researches are needed to find how we could enhance students' creative leader competency.

Research about feature selection that use heuristic function (휴리스틱 함수를 이용한 feature selection에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Mi;Jung, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Tae-Choong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2003
  • A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

The Direction of Reformation on the Edibility of Dogmeat in Korea (한국의 개고기 식용 정책의 개선방향)

  • 안용근
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.72-83
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    • 2003
  • Korea has its long history and tradition of eating dogmeat as food, but dogmeat was excluded from the animal procession law because of the criticism from foreigners, so it is being distributed without inspection of government. Government rejects people's demand for the legalization of edibility of dogmeat due to the protest from a few animal right activist groups, but 80% of nationals favor edibility of dogmeat, and urge the legalization of dogmeat, while 20 lawmakers in legislature submitted the bill to legalize the edibility of dogmeat, and judicature ruled dogmeat is edible meat. Westerners' criticism on dogmeat is, in part, from real protection of animal, but rather their intention seems to be from the racism of colors, the purpose to increase the export amount of beef, to divert the attention of utilizing the abandoned pet dog as animal feed, and to raise a fund for the animal right activist groups. Government distorts the public opinion of edibility of dogmeat, making use of the related animal protection group, and the ministry of Agriculture and Forestry controlling over the animal protection law sides for the concerned groups opposing to the edibility of dogmeat, not for farmers. Furthermore, government has no intention of solving the problem of edibility of dogmeat and can't even propose the solution without presenting any adequate measure, worsening the situation. As a result, the issue of edibility of dogmeat is on the dead angle of sanitation, and wastes of dog slaughtering are polluting the environment. To solve this problem, it is necessary to legalize the edibility of dogmeat in order to distribute it sanitarily, to protect the environment, to increase tax revenues, and to secure the national pride. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry should transfer the jurisdiction over the animal protection law to the Ministry of Environment, and government should execute a reliable policy on the bases of objective and accurate investigation and statistics. Also, it is needed not only to set up the exclusive public bureau to make the edibility of dogmeat known worldwide and research institute, but also to launch the non government organization under the auspices of government. Then dogmeat can become the world renowned food as that of representing Korea.