• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.313-326
• /
• 2017

Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제32권3호
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2009

RAM(Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) is important performance factor to keep combat readiness and optimize operational and maintenance cost of weapon systems. This paper discusses the method to establish RAM for combat readiness by using field failure data from similarity equipments. Operational availability is estimated from a binomial distribution function of user's operational conditions such as combat readiness preservation probability, operational rate, operational availability and total number of equipment. Reliability and maintainability is estimated from field failure data from similarity equipment to accomplish operational availability. The effectiveness of established RAM is verified through analysis of combat readiness preservation probability and mission reliability. A case study of weapon system illustrates the process of the proposed method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제44권8호
• /
• pp.961-970
• /
• 2012

Often, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approaches have been adopted to quantify the failure probabilities of Ni-base alloy components, especially due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), in a primary piping system of pressurized water reactors. In this paper, the key features of an advanced PFM code, PINEP-PWSCC (Probabilistic INtegrity Evaluation for nuclear Piping-PWSCC) for such purpose, are described. In developing the code, we adopted most recent research results and advanced models in calculation modules such as PWSCC crack initiation and growth models, a performance-based probability of detection (POD) model for Ni-base alloy welds, and so on. To verify the code, the failure probabilities for various Alloy 182 welds locations were evaluated and compared with field experience and other PFM codes. Finally, the effects of pre-existing crack, weld repair, and POD models on failure probability were evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of PINEP-PWSCC.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국콘크리트학회 2005년도 봄학술 발표회 논문집(II)
• /
• pp.189-192
• /
• 2005

In recent years, many research works have been carried out in order to obtain a more controlled durability and long-term performance of concrete structures in chloride containing environments. In particular, the development of new procedures for probability-based durability analysis/design has proved to be very valuable. In this paper, the equation used for modelling of the chloride penetration was based on Fick's Second Law of Diffusion in combination with a time dependent diffusion coefficient. The probability analysis of the durability performance was performed by use of a Monte Carlo Simulation. The procedure was applied to an example based on limited data gathered in this country. The influences of each parameter on the durability of concrete structures are studied and some comments for durability design are given. The new procedure may be very useful in designing concrete structures in chloride containing environments.

• 한국공작기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국공작기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.369-374
• /
• 2004

Web-based analysis programs for reliability assessment of machine tools were developed in this study. First, the reliability data analysis program was developed to search for failure rate using failure data and reliability test data of mechanical part. Second, failure mode analysis was developed through performance tests like circular movement test vibration test for machine tools. This analysis program shows correlation between failure mode and performance test result. Third, tool life was predicted by correlation between flank wear and cutting time, using the extended Taylor tool life equation in turning data and the equivalently converted equation in order to apply ball endmill data to Taylor tool life equation in milling data. All the information related to input and result data can be stored in theses programs.

• 터널과지하공간
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.275-281
• /
• 2014

국내 국도에 분포하는 160개 비탈면에서의 발생한 낙석에너지의 특성을 고려하여 신뢰도지수를 산정하고 낙석방지울타리의 요구성능을 고찰하였다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해 낙석에너지를 결정하는 변수의 통계적 특성을 고찰한 결과 비탈면 경사는 정규분포형태이며, 낙석중량과 발생높이는 대수정규분포형태인 것으로 나타났다. 낙석에너지는 대수정규분포형태인 것으로 나타났으며 이는 낙석중량에 영향을 받은 결과로 판단된다. 낙석방지울타리의 신뢰성지수는 0.678이며 파괴확률은 24.9%로 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. 국내의 낙석에너지 규모를 고려하여 제시된 낙석방지울타리의 요구성능은 최대 500kJ 수준이며 신뢰성지수의 범위는 1.028~1.956으로 분석되었다. 제시된 신뢰도지수를 통해 비탈면의 낙석에너지가 고려된 요구성능을 적용할 경우 낙석방지울타리의 파괴확률은 14.8~2.5% 수준인 것으로 분석되었다.

• 한국공작기계학회논문집
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.15-23
• /
• 2005

For reliability assessment for machine tools, failure mode analyses by two viewpoints were studied in this paper. First, this study developed the reliability data analysis program, which searches f3r optimal failure distribution like failure rate or MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure) using failure data and reliability test data of mechanical parts in the web. Moreover, this data analysis program saves both failure data or reliability data and their failure rate or MTBF for database establishment. Second, this paper conducted failure mode analysis through such performance tests as circular movement test and vibration testing for machine tools when reliability data is not available. A developed web-based analysis program shows correlations between failure mode and performance test result and also accumulates all the data. These kinds of data analysis programs and stored data furnish valuable information for improving the reliability of mechanical system.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제18권4호
• /
• pp.519-526
• /
• 2020

Non-stationary random seismic response and reliability of multi-degree of freedom hysteretic structure system are studied based on the cumulative damage failure mechanism. First, dynamic Eqs. of multi-degree of freedom hysteretic structure system under earthquake action are established. Secondly, the random seismic response of a multi-degree freedom hysteretic structure system is investigated by the combination of virtual excitation and precise integration. Finally, according to the damage state level of structural, the different damage state probability of high-rise frame structure is calculated based on the boundary value of the cumulative damage index in the seismic intensity earthquake area. The results show that under the same earthquake intensity and the same floor quality and stiffness, the lower the floor is, the greater the damage probability of the building structure is; if the structural floor stiffness changes abruptly, the weak layer will be formed, and the cumulative damage probability will be the largest, and the reliability index will be relatively small. Meanwhile, with the increase of fortification intensity, the reliability of three-level structure fortification is also significantly reduced. This method can solve the problem of non-stationary random seismic response and reliability of high-rise buildings, and it has high efficiency and practicability. It is instructive for structural performance design and estimating the age of the structure.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 1990년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.22-27
• /
• 1990

Since an eigenvalue problem in structural analysis has been recognized as an important process for the assessment of structural strength, it is usually to be carried out the eigenvalue analysis or buckling analysis of structures when the compression behabiour of the member is dorminant. In general, various variables involved in the eigenvalue problem have also shown their variability. So it is natural to apply the probabilistic analysis into such problem. Since the limit state equation for the eigenvalue analysis or buckling reliability analysis is expressed implicitly in terms of random variables involved, the probabilistic finite element method is combined with the conventional reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM for the determination of probability of failure due to buckling. The accuracy of the results obtained by this method is compared with results from the Monte Carlo simulations. Importance sampling method is specially chosen for overcomming the difficulty in a large simulation number needed for appropriate accurate result. From the results of the case study, it is found that the method developed here has shown good performance for the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safety of the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safely of frame structure which might be collapsed by either yielding or buckling.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제30권8호
• /
• pp.985-992
• /
• 2006

Many methods for reliability analysis have been studied and one of them, a moment method, has the advantage that it doesn't require sensitivities of performance functions. The moment method for reliability analysis requires the first four moments of a performance function and then Pearson system is used for the probability of failure where the accuracy of the probability of failure greatly depends on that of the first four moments. But it is generally impossible to assess them analytically for multidimensional functions, and numerical integration is mainly used to estimate the moment. However, numerical integration requires many function evaluations and in case of involving finite element analyses, the calculation of the first fo 따 moments is very time-consuming. To solve the problem, this research proposes a new method of approximating the first four moments based on kriging metamodel. The proposed method substitutes the kriging metamodel for the performance function and can also evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments adjusting the approximation range. Numerical examples show the proposed method can approximate the moments accurately with the less function evaluations and evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments.