• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of performance failure

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Performance Evaluation and Forecasting Model for Retail Institutions (유통업체의 부실예측모형 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Uk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

An Efficient Symbol Timing Synchronization Scheme for IEEE 802.11n MIMO-OFDM based WLAN Systems (IEEE 802.11n MIMO-OFDM 기반 무선 LAN 시스템을 위한 효율적인 심볼 동기 방법)

  • Cho, Mi-Suk;Jung, Yun-Ho;Kim, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2009
  • An efficient symbol time synchronization scheme for IEEE 802.11n MIMO-OFDM based WLAN systems using cyclic shift diversity (CSD) preamble is proposed. CSD is used to prevent unintentional beamforming when the same preamble signal is transmitted through transmit antennas. However, it is difficult to find a proper starting-point of the OFDM symbol with the conventional algorithms because of time offset by multi-peaks which are result from cross-correlation of received CSD preamble with a known short training symbol. In addition, the performance of symbol time sync. is affected by AGC and packet detection position. In this paper, an optimal symbol time synch. algorithm which is composed of the boundary detection scheme between LTS and OFDM symbols, the verification scheme for enhancement of boundary detection accuracy, and the SNR-varying threshold estimation scheme is proposed. Simulation result show that the proposed algorithm has performance gains of 4.3dB in SNR compared to the conventional algorithms at the rate of 1% sync. failure probability for $2{\times}2$ MIMO-OFDM system and 18dB at 0.1% when maximum frequency offset exists. It also can be applied to $4{\times}4$ MIMO-OFDM system without any modification. Hence, it is very suitable for MIMO-OFDM WLAN systems using CSD preamble.

Development of a Fire Human Reliability Analysis Procedure for Full Power Operation of the Korean Nuclear Power Plants (국내 전출력 원전 적용 화재 인간신뢰도분석 절차 개발)

  • Choi, Sun Yeong;Kang, Dae Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a fire HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) procedure for full power operation of domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). For the development of fire HRA procedure, the recent research results of NUREG-1921 in an effort to meet the requirements of the ASME/ANS PRA Standard were reviewed. The K-HRA method, a standard method for HRA of a domestic level 1 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and fire related procedures in domestic NPPs were reviewed. Based on the review, a procedure for the fire HRA required for a domestic fire PSA based on the K-HRA method was developed. To this end, HRA issues such as new operator actions required in the event of a fire and complexity of fire situations were considered. Based on the four kinds of HFE (Human Failure Event) developed for a fire HRA in this research, a qualitative analysis such as feasibility evaluation was suggested. And also a quantitative analysis process which consists of screening analysis and detailed analysis was proposed. For the qualitative analysis, a screening analysis by NUREG-1921 was used. In this research, the screening criteria for the screening analysis was modified to reduce vague description and to reflect recent experimental results. For a detailed analysis, the K-HRA method and scoping analysis by NUREG-1921 were adopted. To apply K-HRA to fire HRA for quantification, efforts to modify PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors) of K-HRA to reflect fire situation and effects were made. For example, an absence of STA (Shift Technical Advisor) to command a fire brigade at a fire area is considered and the absence time should be reflected for a HEP (Human Error Probability) quantification. Based on the fire HRA procedure developed in this paper, a case study for HEP quantification such as a screening analysis and detailed analysis with the modified K-HRA was performed. It is expected that the HRA procedure suggested in this paper will be utilized for fire PSA for domestic NPPs as it is the first attempt to establish an HRA process considering fire effects.

Design of Dual Network Topology and Redundant Transmitting Protocol for High Survivability of Ship Area Network (SAN) (네트워크 생존성을 고려한 선박 통신망(SAN)의 이중화 네트워크 토폴로지 및 중복 전송 프로토콜의 설계)

  • Son, Chi-Won;Shin, Jung-Hwa;Jung, Min-Young;Moon, Kyeong-Deok;Park, Jun-Hee;Lee, Kwang-Il;Tak, Sung-Woo
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.17C no.1
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2010
  • In the shipbuilding industry, due to the global trends where the number of IT (Information Technology) devices of a smart ship have been increased rapidly, the need to develop a new shipboard backbone network has recently emerged for integrating and managing the IT devices of a smart ship efficiently. A shipboard backbone network requires high survivability because it is constructed in automatic and unmanned smart ships where a failure of the backbone network can cause critical problems. The purpose of this paper thus is to study SAN (Ship Area Network) as a efficient shipboard backbone network, considering particularity of shipboard environment and requirement of high survivability. In order to do so, we designed a dual network topology that all network nodes, including the IT devices installed in a smart ship, are connected each other through dual paths, and reuding tht IT devices pnstalles supporices network survivability as well as t Iffic efficiency for the dual network topology. And then, we verified the performance of the suggested SAN by theoretical and practical analysis including the graph theory, the probability theory, implemental specifications, and computer simulations.

Multi-Hop Vehicular Cloud Construction and Resource Allocation in VANETs (VANET 망에서 다중 홉 클라우드 형성 및 리소스 할당)

  • Choi, Hyunseok;Nam, Youngju;Lee, Euisin
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.263-270
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    • 2019
  • Vehicular cloud computing is a new emerging technology that can provide drivers with cloud services to enable various vehicular applications. A vehicular cloud is defined as a set of vehicles that share their own resources. Vehicles should collaborate with each other to construct vehicular clouds through vehicle-to-vehicle communications. Since collaborating vehicles to construct the vehicular cloud have different speeds, directions and locations respectively, the vehicular cloud is constructed in multi-hop communication range. Due to intermittent wireless connectivity and low density of vehicles with the limited resources, the construction of vehicular cloud with multi-hop communications has become challenging in vehicular environments in terms of the service success ratio, the service delay, and the transmitted packet number. Thus, we propose a multi-hop vehicular cloud construction protocol that increases the service success ratio and decreases the service delay and the transmitted packet number. The proposed protocol uses a connection time-based intermediate vehicle selection scheme to reduce the cloud failure probability of multi-hop vehicular cloud. Simulation results conducted in various environments verify that the proposed protocol achieves better performance than the existing protocol.

Evaluation of estuary reservoir management based on robust decision making considering water use-flood control-water quality under Climate Change (이수-치수-수질을 고려한 기후변화 대응 로버스트 기반 담수호 관리 평가)

  • Kim, Seokhyeon;Hwang, Soonho;Kim, Sinae;Lee, Hyunji;Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Jihye;Kang, Moonseong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.419-429
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study was to determine the management water level of an estuary reservoir considering three aspects: the water use, flood control and water quality, and to use a robust decision-making to consider uncertainty due to climate change. The watershed-reservoir linkage model was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water level and water quality. Five management level alternatives ranging from -1.7 El.m to 0.2 El.m were evaluated under the SSP1, 2, 3, and 5 scenariosof the ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model. Performance indicators based on period-reliability were calculated for robust decision-making considering the three aspects, and regret was used as a decision indicator to identify the alternatives with the minimum maximum regret. Flood control failure increased as the management level increased, while the probability of water use failure increased as the management level decreased. The highest number of failures occurred under the SSP5 scenario. In the water quality sector, the change in water quality was relatively small with an increase in the management level due to the increase in reservoir volume. Conversely, a decrease in the management level resulted in a more significant change in water quality. In the study area, the estuary reservoir was found to be problematic when the change in water quality was small, resulting in more failures.