• 상하수도학회지
• /
• 제24권5호
• /
• pp.509-517
• /
• 2010

Statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea was analyzed and applied to the reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. After the analysis, it was found that distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea is well matched with Gumbel distribution. Rational equation was used to estimate the load and Manning's equation was used to estimate the capacity in reliability function to calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. Reliability analysis was performed by developed model applying to the real storm sewer. It was found that probability of performance failure is abruptly increased if the diameter is smaller than certain size. Therefore, cleaning the inside of storm sewer to maintain the original diameter can be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of performance failure. In the present study, probability of performance failure according to accumulation of debris in storm sewer was calculated. It was found that increasing the amount of debris seriously decrease the capacity of storm sewer and significantly increase the probability of performance failure.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제43권11호
• /
• pp.967-976
• /
• 2010

우수관의 성능이 한계상태(performance limit state)에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 FORM(First-Order Reliability Model)의 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) 신뢰성 모형을 개발하였다. 우수관망에서 각각의 관으로 유입하는 유량이 그 관의 허용 가능 배출량을 초과하여 성능한계상태에 도달할 때 이를 파괴상태(failure state)라 정의하여 신뢰함수를 수립하였다. 우수관거로의 유입량은 합리식, 유출량은 Manning의 공식을 적용하였다. 또한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 관련 확률변수들에 대한 통계적 특성과 분포함수에 대한 해석이 수행되었다. 강우자료의 불확실성 해석에서 우리나라 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포가 Gumbel 극치분포함수와 일치함을 확인하였다. 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 Y자형 우수관망에 적용하여 성능한계상태가 발생할 확률, 즉 파괴확률(probability of failure)을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Manning의 공식을 이용하여 우수관의 직경 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 거동특성을 분석하였다. 특히 문경과 대전의 50년 재현기간을 갖는 설계 강우강도에 대한 우수관의 파괴확률을 산정한 결과에 의하면, 관의 직경이 특정수치 이하일 경우 파괴확률이 급격히 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 가깝도록 항상 관내 불순물을 제거하는 것이 파괴확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법임을 의미하는 것이다. 또한 우수관 시스템의 경우 여러 개의 관이 모여 하나의 관으로 흘러 들어가는 경우가 많으며 이 경우 다중파괴유형(multiple failure mode)을 적용하여 시스템이 파괴상태에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
• /
• 제22권4호
• /
• pp.748-760
• /
• 1997

The handoff failure probability has to be enhanced efficiently to enhance the performance of PCS system. In this paper a new scheme called velocity adaptive handoff algorithm for reducing handoff failure probability and maintaining the carried traffic constantly in PCS systems, by assigning low handoff threshold value for high mobility calls, and assigning high handoff threshold value for low mobility calls, is presented. The performance of evaluation of this new scheme is carried out in terms of tranffic characteristics. Also velocity estimation algorithm for this new scheme is presented. According to the result, the handoff failure probability of velocity adaptive handoff algorithm is enhanced about 60%.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.25-36
• /
• 1996

본 논문은 격자 구조 회선 교환 망에서 발생할 수 있는 호 차단 확률 및 failure model을 설정하여 신뢰도를 분석하였다 특히 failure model에서는 link failure 모델을 고려하였다. 대상 모델은.flooding search routing 방식을 사용하여 패킷을 통화 대상자 노드에 전송하였다. 이때. 각 링크failure는 독립적이라고 가정하였다. 이와 같은 failure모델의 성능을 평가하기 위한 방법으로서 joint probability를 이용하여 소규모 격자 구조 회선 교환망의 신뢰도를 분석해 보았으며. 이를 시뮬레이션 한 값과 비교해 보았다 또한. 통신망에서 주요한 성능 지표중 하나8! 호 차단 확률을 구하여 회선망의 신뢰도를 평가하였다.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.49-64
• /
• 2015

This paper presents a method for assessing the risk of wave run-up and overtopping of existing coastal defences and for analysing the probability of failure of the structures under future hydraulic conditions. The recent UK climate projections are employed in the investigations of the influence of changing environments on the long-term performance of sea defences. In order to reduce the risk of wave run-up and overtopping caused by rising sea level and to maintain the present-day allowances for wave run-up height and overtopping discharge, the future necessary increase in crest level of existing structures is investigated. Various critical failure mechanisms are considered for reliability analysis, i.e., erosion of crest by wave overtopping, failure of seaside revetment, and internal erosions within earth sea dykes. The time-dependent reliability of sea dykes is analysed to give probability of failure with time. The results for an example earth dyke section show that the necessary increase in crest level is approximately double of sea level rise to maintain the current allowances. The probability of failure for various failure modes of the earth dyke has a significant increase with time under future hydraulic conditions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제49권1호
• /
• pp.111-128
• /
• 2014

The stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the response surface method (RSM) are often used for structural reliability analysis, especially for reliability problems with implicit performance functions. This paper aims to compare these two methods in terms of fitting the performance function, accuracy and efficiency in estimating probability of failure as well as statistical moments of system output response. The computational procedures of two response surface methods are briefly introduced first. Then their capabilities are demonstrated and compared in detail through two examples. The results indicate that the probability of failure mainly reflects the accuracy of the response surface function (RSF) fitting the performance function in the vicinity of the design point, while the statistical moments of system output response reflect the accuracy of the RSF fitting the performance function in the entire space. In addition, the performance function can be well fitted by the SRSM with an optimal order polynomial chaos expansion both in the entire physical and in the independent standard normal spaces. However, it can be only well fitted by the RSM in the vicinity of the design point. For reliability problems involving random variables with approximate normal distributions, such as normal, lognormal, and Gumbel Max distributions, both the probability of failure and statistical moments of system output response can be accurately estimated by the SRSM, whereas the RSM can only produce the probability of failure with a reasonable accuracy.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
• /
• 제26권4호
• /
• pp.173-180
• /
• 2022

Most of the drinking water dams managed by the local governments in Korea are earthfill dams, and these dams have almost no geotechnical property information necessary for seismic performance evaluation. Nevertheless, in the rough planning stage for improving seismic safety for these dams, it is necessary to classify their relative seismic hazard against earthquakes and conduct an additional ground investigation. The zero seismic failure probability curve is a curve suggested in this study in which the probability of failure due to an earthquake becomes '0' regardless of the geotechnical properties of the earthfill dam. By examining the method and procedure for calculating failure probability due to an earthquake suggested in previous researches, the zero seismic failure probability curves for an earthquake in 1,000-year and 2,400-year return periods in Korea were presented in the form of a hyperbola on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio (ratio of freeboard to dam height), respectively. The distribution characteristics of the dam height and the freeboard ratio of 81 Korean earthfill dams were presented. The two proposed zero seismic failure probability curves are shown on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio, and the relative seismic hazard of 81 dams can be classified into three groups using these curves as boundaries. This study presented the method of classifying the relative seismic hazard and the classification result.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
• /
• 제10권5호
• /
• pp.135-141
• /
• 2010

본 연구에서는 우수관의 조도계수의 변화에 따른 성능불능확률을 산정할 수 있는 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 조도계수는 우수관의 토사의 적체에 따라 다시 산정되었으며 새로운 조도계수를 이용하여 신뢰성 해석이 수행되었다. 해석결과, 우수관에 적체되는 토사의 깊이가 증가함에 따라 우수관의 용량은 크게 감소하고 성능불능확률은 크게 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서는 우수관에 적체되는 토사의 깊이에 따라 산정된 조도계수를 사용한 신뢰성 모형을 대구와 전주에 적용하였다. 원형 우수관에 적체된 토사의 깊이가 증가할수록 우수관의 조도계수는 커지고 성능불능확률도 역시 크게 증가 하는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제31권5호
• /
• pp.95-101
• /
• 2016

This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제38권5호
• /
• pp.651-674
• /
• 2011

This paper presents a novel method for predicting the failure probability of structural or mechanical systems subjected to random loads and material properties involving multiple design points. The method involves Multicut High Dimensional Model Representation (Multicut-HDMR) technique in conjunction with moving least squares to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function with an explicit function. Depending on the order chosen sometimes truncated Cut-HDMR expansion is unable to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function when multiple design points exist on the limit state/performance function or when the problem domain is large. Multicut-HDMR addresses this problem by using multiple reference points to improve accuracy of the approximate limit state/performance function. Numerical examples show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in estimating the failure probability.