• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.5B
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• pp.489-499
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• 2006

The Potential Flood Damage (PFD) is widely used for representing the degree of potential of flood damage. However, this cannot be related with the design frequency of river basin and so we have difficulty in the use of water resources field. Therefore, in this study, the concept of Potential Risk for Flood Damage Occurrence (PRFD) was introduced and estimated, which can be related to the design frequency. The PRFD has three important elements of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The hazard means a probability of occurrence of flood event, the exposure represents the degree that the property is exposed in the flood hazard, and the vulnerability represents the degree of weakness of the measures for flood prevention. Those elements were devided into some sub-elements. The hazard is explained by the frequency based rainfall, the exposure has two sub-elements which are population density and official land price, and the vulnerability has two sub-elements which are undevelopedness index and ability of flood defence. Each sub-elements are estimated and the estimated values are rearranged in the range of 0 to 100. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is also applied to determine weighting coefficients in the equation of PRFD. The PRFD for the Anyang river basin and the design frequency are estimated by using the maximum rainfall. The existing design frequency for Anyang river basin is in the range of 50 to 200. And the design frequency estimation result of PRFD of this study is in the range of 110 to 130. Therefore, the developed method for the estimation of PRFD and the design frequency for the administrative districts are used and the method for the watershed and the river channel are to be applied in the future study.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.753-761
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• 2019

Localized heavy storm is one of the major causes of flood damage in urban regions. According to the recent disaster statistics in South Korea, the frequency of urban flood is increasing more frequently, and the scale is also increasing. However, localized heavy storm is difficult to predict, making it difficult for local government officials to deal with floods. This study aims to construct a Flood risk matrix (FRM) using ensemble weather prediction data and to assess its applicability as a means of reducing damage by securing time for such urban flood response. The FRM is a two-dimensional matrix of potential impacts (X-axis) representing flood risk and likelihood (Y-axis) representing the occurrence probability of dangerous weather events. To this end, a regional FRM was constructed using historical flood damage records and probability precipitation data for basic municipality in Busan and Daegu. Applicability of the regional FRMs was assessed by applying the LENS data of the Korea Meteorological Administration on past heavy rain events. As a result, it was analyzed that the flood risk could be predicted up to 3 days ago, and it would be helpful to reduce the damage by securing the flood response time in practice.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.247-261
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• 2002

There are much damage of people and property because of heavy rain every year. Especially, there are problem to major facility such as dam, bridge, road, tunnel, and industrial complex in the ground stability. So the counter plan for landslide or ground failure must be necessary In the study, the technique of regional landslide susceptibility assessment near the Ulsan petrochemical complex and Kumgang railway bridge was developed and applied using GIS. For the assessment, the geological structures such as bedding and fault were surveyed and the geological structure, topographic, soil, forest, and land use spatial database were constructed using CIS. Using the spatial database, the factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature and type of topography, texture, material, drainage and effective thickness of soil, type, age, diameter and density of forest, and land use were calculated or extracted from the spatial database. For application of geological structure, the geological structure line and fault density were calculated. Landslide susceptibility was analyzed using the landslide-occurrence factors by probability method that is summation of landslide occurrence probability values per each factors range or type. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to assess ground stability to protect major facility.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2015

Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavy rainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. The main objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981~2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were also obtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for three different future spans, i.e. 2011~2040; 2025s, 2041~2070; 2055s, 2071~2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculated using HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase in design floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reduce damage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.84-95
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• 2019

This paper reports the process of seismic fragility analysis for the rahman-type continuous bridge system. The target structure was the five span highway bridge with maximum pier hight of 72m. OpenSees software was used for the nonlinear time history analysis. In this study, 50 ground motions are considered for nonlinear time history analysis. For each ground motion, PGA was scaled from 0.1g to 2.0g with intervals of 0.1g in order to consider a wide range of the seismic intensity measure. In addition, yield displacement and ultimate displacement of each pier were calculated through section analysis. Based on the result of non linear time history analysis and section analysis, damage condition of target bridge was classified according to the definition of damage condition proposed by Barbat et al. As a result, it was predicted that Extensive Damage occurred at P1 when 0.731 g earthquake occurred in the longitudinal direction. Based on the seismic fragility analysis results, it is found that the probability of occurrence of Extensive Damage in the 4,800 - year period earthquake was about 4.2%. Therefore the target bridge has enough safety for earthquake.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.467-480
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• 2020

Concrete rectangular liquid storage tanks are widely used, but there are many cases of damage in previous earthquakes. Nonlinear fluid-structure interaction (FSI) is considered, Mooney-Rivlin material is used for rubber bearing, nonlinear contact is used for sliding bearing, numerical calculation models of no-isolation, rubber isolation, sliding isolation and hybrid isolation concrete rectangular liquid storage tanks are established; dynamic responses of different structures are compared to verify the effectiveness of isolation methods; and influences of earthquake amplitude, bidirectional earthquake and far-field long-period earthquake on dynamic responses are investigated. Results show that for liquid sloshing wave height, rubber isolation cause amplification effect, while sliding isolation and hybrid isolation have reduction effect; displacement of rubber isolation structure is much larger than that of sliding isolation with limiting-devices and hybrid isolation structure; when PGA is larger, wall cracking probability of no-isolation structure becomes larger, and probability of liquid sloshing wave height and structure displacement of rubber isolation structure exceeds the limit is also larger; under bidirectional earthquake, occurrence probabilities that liquid sloshing wave height and structure displacement of rubber isolation structure exceed the limit will be increased; besides, far-field long-period earthquake mainly influences structure displacement and liquid sloshing wave height. On the whole, control effect of sliding isolation is the best, followed by hybrid isolation, and rubber isolation is the worst.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.1343-1346
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• 2005

In the cold rolling mill, coil breakage that generated in rolling process makes the various types of troubles such as the degradation of productivity and the damage of equipment. Recent researches were done by the mechanical analysis such as the analysis of roll chattering or strip inclining and the prevention of breakage that detects the crack of coil. But they could cover some kind of breakages. The prediction of Coil breakage was very complicated and occurred rarely. We propose to build effective prediction modes for coil breakage in rolling process, based on data mining model. We proposed three prediction models for coil breakage: (1) decision tree based model, (2) regression based model and (3) neural network based model. To reduce model parameters, we selected important variables related to the occurrence of coil breakage from the attributes of coil setup by using the methods such as decision tree, variable selection and the choice of domain experts. We developed these prediction models and chose the best model among them using SEMMA process that proposed in SAS E-miner environment. We estimated model accuracy by scoring the prediction model with the posterior probability. We also have developed a software tool to analyze the data and generate the proposed prediction models either automatically and in a user-driven manner. It also has an effective visualization feature that is based on PCA (Principle Component Analysis).

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• v.y2005m4
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• pp.23-26
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• 2005

The method of decreasing the ecological risk for the LRE(Liquid Rocket Engine) test is developed, working on the cryogenic oxidizer and the high-boiling fuel(Kerosene). This Method is based on the study that contains a technical solution method and an accident occurrence range for decreasing of accident probability and damage. This paper contains schematic on the all risk circumstance bring to accident, block-diagram for an accident growth process in case of the propellant leakage, evaluation method of safety distance from test stand to residential area. It will be used to alternative method for the risk reduction of complex technical systems.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.120-126
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• 2005

The method of decreasing the ecological risk for the LRE(Liquid Rocket Engine) test is developed, working on the cryogenic oxidizer and the high-boiling fuel(Kerosene). This Method is based on the study that contains a technical solution method and an accident occurrence range for decreasing of accident probability and damage. This paper contains schematic on the all risk circumstance bring to accident, block-diagram for an accident growth process in case of the propellant leakage, technical solution method and risk reduction evaluation method. It will be used to alternative method for the risk reduction of complex technical systems.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.109-116
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• 2010

We consider an information system where its throughput deteriorates due to security threats and evaluate information security investment portfolios. We assume that organizations adopt information security countermeasures (or portfolios consisted of countermeasures) to lessen the damage resulted from the productivity (or throughput) deterioration. A probability model is used to derive the system throughput and the average number of repairs according to the occurrence rate of security threats. Considering the revenue from throughput, the repair cost, and the investment for the security system, the net present value for each portfolio is derived. Organizations can compare information security investment portfolios and select the optimal portfolio.