• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Hit

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Comparative Study of AI Models for Reliability Function Estimation in NPP Digital I&C System Failure Prediction (원전 디지털 I&C 계통 고장예측을 위한 신뢰도 함수 추정 인공지능 모델 비교연구)

  • DaeYoung Lee;JeongHun Lee;SeungHyeok Yang
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • The nuclear power plant(NPP)'s Instrumentation and Control(I&C) system periodically conducts integrity checks for the maintenance of self-diagnostic function during normal operation. Additionally, it performs functionality and performance checks during planned preventive maintenance periods. However, there is a need for technological development to diagnose failures and prevent accidents in advance. In this paper, we studied methods for estimating the reliability function by utilizing environmental data and self-diagnostic data of the I&C equipment. To obtain failure data, we assumed probability distributions for component features of the I&C equipment and generated virtual failure data. Using this failure data, we estimated the reliability function using representative artificial intelligence(AI) models used in survival analysis(DeepSurve, DeepHit). And we also estimated the reliability function through the Cox regression model of the traditional semi-parametric method. We confirmed the feasibility through the residual lifetime calculations based on environmental and diagnostic data.

A Drought Outlook Study Using Climate Information in Korea (국내 기상정보를 이용한 가뭄전망기법 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Ko, Yang-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1590-1596
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    • 2009
  • 최근 기후변화의 영향으로 인한 기상이변으로 인해 세계적으로 많은 피해가 발생하고 있으며, 규모도 점점 커지고 있다. 특히 가뭄에 대한 피해는 더욱 더 심화되는 현상으로 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내에 적합한 월단위와 주단위 가뭄전망을 제시하였다. 월단위 전망에서는 앙상블 기법을 기반으로 기상청에서 제공하는 월간산업기상정보의 적용에 따른 가뭄전망 정확성을 비교하였다. 주단위 전망에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 GDAPS를 이용하여 확정론적 가뭄전망을 하였다. 가뭄지수로서는 강수, 유량, 지하수위를 인자로 하는 MSWSI(Modified Surface Water Supply Index)를 가뭄지수로 사용하였으며, MSWSI는 5개 구간으로 나누었다. 월단위 가뭄전망에서는 물수지모형인 abcd모형에 과거 강수와 잠재증발산량 시나리오를 입력변수로 하여 최종적으로 유량과 지하수위 시나리오를 생산하여, 확률 가뭄전망을 위해 각 구간의 발생확률을 산정하고 실측자료로부터 산정한 MSWSI와 비교하였다. 정확성 평가를 위해서 RPS(Ranked Probability Score)를 이용하였다. 금강유역에 적용한 결과, 이수기(10월-이듬해 6월)에는 4개 달이 초보전망보다 높았으나 전체 RPS는 1.87로서 초보전망의 1.84보다 높아 현재 월단위 가뭄전망기법에는 많은 불확실성이 존재하였다. 또한 월간산업기상정보를 이용한 월단위 가뭄전망에서도 초보전망보다 정확성이 낮아, 현재 중장기 기상정보를 이용하기에는 어려운 것으로 나타났다. 주단위 가뭄전망에서는 abcd모형에 GDAPS를 입력변수로 하여 확정론적 MSWSI를 산정하여 실측자료로부터 산정한 MSWSI와 비교하였으며, Hit ratio를 이용하여 그 정확성을 평가하였다. 주단위 가뭄전망 결과, 주단위 가뭄전망의 Hit ratio가 0.480으로서 초보전망보다 높아 주단위 가뭄전망은 효용성이 있음을 입증하였다. 본 연구에서 적용기간이 짧아 가뭄전망의 정확성을 판단하기는 이르나, 월단위 가뭄전망에서는 기상정보의 정확성이 향상에 따라 가뭄전망의 정확성도 향상될 것으로 판단된다. 장기적으로 본 연구 결과를 토대로 단기와 중장기 가뭄전망을 수행하고 평가한다면, 가뭄전망에 대한 신뢰도가 더 높아질 것으로 사료된다.

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Recrystallization Topology : a Scale-free Power-law Network (재결정 위상 : 척도 없는 거듭제곱 법칙 망)

  • Park, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2010
  • Recently the distributed topology control algorithm for constructing the Recrystallization Topology in the unstructured peer-to-peer network was proposed. In this paper, we prove that such a hierarchical topology is a scale-free power-law network. We present a model of a construction process of the distributed protocol, and analyze it based on a mean-field approximation and the continuum theory, so that we show that the constructed Recrystallization Topology is a scale-free network. In the proposed model, all nodes are born with some initial attractiveness and the system incorporates the rewiring of some links at every time step. Some old links are removed with the anti-preferential probability, and some new links are added with preferential probability. In other words, according to the distributed algorithm, each node makes connections to the more-preferential nodes having higher hit-ratio than other nodes, while it disconnects the anti-preferential nodes having lesser hit-ratio. This gives a realistic description of the local processes forming the recrystallization topology in unstructured peer-to-peer network. We calculate analytically the degree distribution. The analytic result indicates that the constructed network is a scale-free network, of which the scaling exponent is 3.

Reinterpretation of the protein identification process for proteomics data

  • Kwon, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Kwang;Cho, Kun;Park, Gun-Wook;Kang, Byeong-Soo;Park, Young-Mok
    • Interdisciplinary Bio Central
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.9.1-9.6
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    • 2009
  • Introduction: In the mass spectrometry-based proteomics, biological samples are analyzed to identify proteins by mass spectrometer and database search. Database search is the process to select the best matches to the experimental mass spectra among the amino acid sequence database and we identify the protein as the matched sequence. The match score is defined to find the matches from the database and declare the highest scored hit as the most probable protein. According to the score definition, search result varies. In this study, the difference among search results of different search engines or different databases was investigated, in order to suggest a better way to identify more proteins with higher reliability. Materials and Methods: The protein extract of human mesenchymal stem cell was separated by several bands by one-dimensional electrophorysis. One-dimensional gel was excised one by one, digested by trypsin and analyzed by a mass spectrometer, FT LTQ. The tandem mass (MS/MS) spectra of peptide ions were applied to the database search of X!Tandem, Mascot and Sequest search engines with IPI human database and SwissProt database. The search result was filtered by several threshold probability values of the Trans-Proteomic Pipeline (TPP) of the Institute for Systems Biology. The analysis of the output which was generated from TPP was performed. Results and Discussion: For each MS/MS spectrum, the peptide sequences which were identified from different conditions such as search engines, threshold probability, and sequence database were compared. The main difference of peptide identification at high threshold probability was caused by not the difference of sequence database but the difference of the score. As the threshold probability decreases, the missed peptides appeared. Conversely, in the extremely high threshold level, we missed many true assignments. Conclusion and Prospects: The different identification result of the search engines was mainly caused by the different scoring algorithms. Usually in proteomics high-scored peptides are selected and low-scored peptides are discarded. Many of them are true negatives. By integrating the search results from different parameter and different search engines, the protein identification process can be improved.

Prefetching Mechanism using the User's File Access Pattern Profile in Mobile Computing Environment (이동 컴퓨팅 환경에서 사용자의 FAP 프로파일을 이용한 선인출 메커니즘)

  • Choi, Chang-Ho;Kim, Myung-Il;Kim, Sung-Jo
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2000
  • In the mobile computing environment, in order to make copies of important files available when being disconnected the mobile host(client) must store them in its local cache while the connection is maintained. In this paper, we propose the prefetching mechanism for the client to save files which may be accessed in the near future. Our mechanism utilizes analyzer, prefetch-list producer, and prefetch manager. The analyzer records file access patterns of the user in a FAP(File Access Patterns) profile. Using the profile, the prefetch-list producer creates the prefetch-list. The prefetch manager requests a file server to return this list. We set the parameter TRP(Threshold of Reference Probability) to ensure that only reasonably related files can be prefetched. The prefetch-list producer adds the files to a prefetch-list if their reference probability is greater than the TRP. We also use the parameter TACP(Threshold of Access Counter Probability) to reduce the hoarding size required to store a prefetch-list. Finally, we measure the metrics such as the cache hit ratio, the number of files referenced by the client after disconnection and the hoarding size. The simulation results show that the performance of our mechanism is superior to that of the LRU caching mechanism. Our results also show that prefetching with the TACP can reduce the hoard size while maintaining similar performance of prefetching without TACP.

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Development of flood hazard and risk maps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, key study of the Zujevina River

  • Emina, Hadzic;Giuseppe Tito, Aronica;Hata, Milisic;Suvada, Suvalija;Slobodanka, Kljucanin;Ammar, Saric;Suada, Sulejmanovic;Fehad, Mujic
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2022
  • Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena that affect populations, environment, social, political, and ecological systems. After the catastrophic floods that have hit Europe and the World in recent decades, the flood problem has become more current. At the EU level, a legal framework has been put in place with the entry into force of Directive 2007/60/EC on Flood Risk Assessment and Management (Flood Directive). Two years after the entry into force of the Floods Directive, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), has adopted a Regulation on the types and content of water protection plans, which takes key steps and activities under the Floods Directive. The "Methodology for developing flood hazard and risk maps" (Methodology) was developed for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, following the methodology used in the majority of EU member states, but with certain modifications to the country's characteristics. Accordingly, activities for the preparation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment for each river basin district were completed in 2015 for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Activities on the production of hazard maps and flood risk maps are in progress. The results of probable climate change impact model forecasts should be included in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans, which is the subsequent phase of implementing the Flood Directive. By the foregoing, the paper will give an example of the development of the hydrodynamic model of the Zujevina River, as well as the development of hazard and risk maps. Hazard and risk maps have been prepared for medium probability floods of 1/100 as well as for high probability floods of 1/20. The results of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) recording were used to create a digital terrain model (DMR). It was noticed that there are big differences between the flood maps obtained by recording LiDAR techniques in relation to the previous flood maps obtained using georeferenced topographic maps. Particular attention is given to explaining the Methodology applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Vulnerability Assessment of Hydro-pneumatic Suspension of Ground Combat Vehicles Using Vulnerable Area Method and DMEA (취약면적법과 DMEA를 활용한 지상전투차량 유공압 현가장치의 취약성 평가)

  • Nam, Myung Hoon;Park, Kang;Park, Woo Sung;Yoo, Chul
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2017
  • Vulnerability assesses the loss of major performance functions of GCV (Ground Combat Vehicles) when it is hit by enemy's shell. To decide the loss of major functions, it is determined what effects are on the performance of GCV when some components of GCV are failed. M&S (Modeling and Simulation) technology is used to vulnerability assessment. The hydro-pneumatic suspension is used as a sample part. The procedures of vulnerability assessment of the hydro-pneumatic suspension are shown as follows: 1) The components of the suspension are defined, and shot lines are generated evenly around the part. 2) The penetrated components are checked by using the penetration equation. 3) The function model of the suspension is designed by using IDEF0. 4) When the failure of the critical components of the suspension happens, its effect on the function of the suspension can be estimated using DMEA (Damage Mode and Effects Analysis). 5) The diagram of FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) is designed by exploiting DMEA. 6) The damage probability of the suspension is calculated by using FTA and vulnerable area method. In this paper, SLAP (Shot Line Analysis Program) which was developed based on COVART methodology. SLAP calculates the damage probability and visualizes the vulnerable areas of the suspension.

Fast Distributed Network File System using State Transition Model in the Media Streaming System (미디어 스트리밍 시스템에서의 상태 천이 모델을 활용한 고속 분산 네트워크 파일 시스템)

  • Woo, Soon;Lee, Jun-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2012
  • Due to the large sizes of streaming media, previous delivery techniques are not providing optimal performance. For this purpose, video proxy server is employed for reducing the bandwidth consumption, network congestion, and network traffic. This paper proposes a fast distributed network file system using state transition model in the media streaming system for efficient utilization of video proxy server. The proposed method is composed of three steps: step 1. Training process using state transition model, step 2. base and decision probability generation, and step 3. storing and deletion based on probability. In addition, storage space of video proxy server is divided into each segment area in order to store the segments efficiently and to avoid the fragmentation. The simulation results show that the proposed method performs better than other methods in terms of hit rate and number of deletion. Therefore, the proposed method provides the lowest user start-up latency and the highest bandwidth saving significantly.

Predicting Probability of Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Network and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (인공신경망과 중규모기상수치예보를 이용한 강수확률예측)

  • Kang, Boosik;Lee, Bongki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.485-493
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    • 2008
  • The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was suggested for predicting probability of precipitation (PoP) using RDAPS NWP model, observation at AWS and upper-air sounding station. The prediction work was implemented for flood season and the data period is the July, August of 2001 and June of 2002. Neural network input variables (predictors) were composed of geopotential height 500/750/1000 hPa, atmospheric thickness 500-1000 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 500 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 750 hPa, wind speed at surface, temperature at 500/750 hPa/surface, mean sea level pressure, 3-hr accumulated precipitation, occurrence of observed precipitation, precipitation accumulated in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, precipitation occurrence in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, relative humidity measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water difference in 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run. The suggested ANN has a 3-layer perceptron (multi layer perceptron; MLP) and back-propagation learning algorithm. The result shows that there were 6.8% increase in Hit rate (H), especially 99.2% and 148.1% increase in Threat Score (TS) and Probability of Detection (POD). It illustrates that the suggested ANN model can be a useful tool for predicting rainfall event prediction. The Kuipers Skill Score (KSS) was increased 92.8%, which the ANN model improves the rainfall occurrence prediction over RDAPS.

Dynamic Analysis of the Turret for Analyzing the Accuracy Impact Factor of the Ground Combat Vehicle (지상 전투차량의 명중률 영향요소 분석을 위한 포의 동역학 해석)

  • Song, Jaebok;Park, Kang
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.340-346
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    • 2014
  • There are many factors that contribute to hit probability of the gun shot of ground combat vehicles. Aiming accuracy is mainly affected by the dynamic state of the vehicle. The stabilization error of the turret under system vibration is one of the major factors that affect the aiming accuracy. The vibration of the vehicle is affected by both the state of the road and the speed of the vehicle. This paper analyzes the aiming accuracy of the gun equipped on the GCV when the vehicle drives on the different roads and at different speed. The vertical displacement and the pitch angle of the gun are calculated and the impact points of the target are calculated. Distribution of the impact points on the target is greatly influenced by the pitch rotation rather than vertical displacement. And this aiming errors result in the errors of point of impacts on the target after the bullet flies through the air under trajectory equations. The GCV is modeled using a half-car model with 6 D.O.F. and the specifications of the M2 machine gun are used in trajectory calculation simulation and the target is located in 1000 m away from the gun.