• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability density estimate

Search Result 136, Processing Time 0.019 seconds

Relationship between fracture distribution and the acidity of mine drainage at the Il-Gwang Mine (일광광산의 절리분포 특성과 광산배수 산성도의 관계)

  • Choi, Jae-Young;Um, Jeong-Gi;Kwon, Hyun-Ho;Shim, Yon-Sik
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.425-436
    • /
    • 2010
  • We established a stochastic 3-D fracture network system for fractured rock masses located in Il-Gwang Mine, Busan, to explore the relationship between the acidity of mine drainage and fracture geometry. A field scanline survey and borehole image processing were performed to estimate the best probability distributions of fracture geometry parameters. The stochastic 3-D fracture network system constructed for the rock masses was validated and deemed to be successful. The 3-D fracture network model was suitable for developing conceptual ideas on fluid flow in fractures at a field experimental site. An injection well and three observation wells were drilled at the field experimental site to monitor the acidity of mine drainage induced by the injection of fresh water. The field experiment, which was run for 29 days, yielded a significant relationship (with a high coefficient of determination) between the fracture geometry parameters and the acidity of mine drainage. The results show that pH increased with increasing relative frequency of fracture strike, and decreased with increasing fracture density. The concentration of $SO^{2-}_4$ decreased with increasing relative frequency of fracture strike, and increased with increasing fracture density.

Analysis of Central Place and Hinterland using Linear programming and Probability Model of Huff (선형계획법과 허프확률모형을 이용한 농촌마을 중심지와 배후지 분석)

  • Jeon, Jeongbae;Park, Meejeong;Kim, Eunja;Choi, Jinah;Lim, Changsu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-63
    • /
    • 2017
  • Although some indicators for evaluating rural settlement conditions have been offered, these indicators could not reflect unique characteristics that rural has its own peculiarities. The rural area is identified with central districts functioned as service provision and hinterlands used its service. The aim of this study is to find a central district of rural villages and define range of its hinterlands using various physical characteristics of rural areas. Targeting areas are Yongsan and Hwanggan in Yeongdong-gun. The physical characteristics are represented by building density, number of shops among secondary and tertiary industries, official land price, and density of bus line. The rural central district is estimated by linear programming using defined the physical characteristics. Also its hinterlands used Huff model and social accessibility. The results of this study are as follows; (1) The physical characteristics in Hwanggan myeon is higher than Yongsan myeon because Hwanggan area has a large floating population for using Hwanggan station and ticket office; (2) The central district in Hwanggan has wider regional range than Yongsan. When central district estimate in rural areas, we suggest a grid diameter of Hexagon for controlling errors; (3) Considering accessibility, the life zone of 4 districts defined legally in Hwanggan use Yongsan and 2 legal districts in Hwanggan are possible to take advantage of Yongsan's life zone; (4) The results of survey targeting boundary villages between Yongsan and Hwanggan, individual drivers use central districts both Yongsan and Hwanggan, however users by public transportation (especially bus) go more to Hwanggan because bus lines to Hwanggan have many routes than to Yongsan. Evaluating the rural settlement conditions by national unit through grasping central districts and its hinterlands, these results can use as base line data and the evidence for regional development projects.

A Management Plan According to the Estimation of Nutria (Myocastorcoypus) Distribution Density and Potential Suitable Habitat (뉴트리아(Myocastor coypus) 분포밀도 및 잠재적 서식가능지역 예측에 따른 관리방향)

  • Kim, Areum;Kim, Young-Chae;Lee, Do-Hun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.203-214
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the concentrated distribution area of nutria (Myocastor coypus) and potential suitable habitat and to provide useful data for the effective management direction setting. Based on the nationwide distribution data of nutria, the cross-validation value was applied to analyze the distribution density. As a result, the concentrated distribution areas thatrequired preferential elimination is found in 14 administrative areas including Busan Metropolitan City, Daegu Metropolitan City, 11 cities and counties in Gyeongsangnam-do and 1 county in Gyeongsangbuk-do. In the potential suitable habitat estimation using a MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model, the possibility of emergency was found in the Nakdong River middle and lower stream area and the Seomjin riverlower stream area and Gahwacheon River area. As for the contribution by variables of a model, it showed DEM, precipitation of driest month, min temperature of coldest month and distance from river had contribution from the highest order. In terms of the relation with the probability of appearance, the probability of emergence was higher than the threshold value in areas with less than 34m of altitude, with $-5.7^{\circ}C{\sim}-0.6^{\circ}C$ of min temperature of the coldest month, with 15-30mm of precipitation of the driest month and with less than 1,373m away from the river. Variables that Altitude, existence of water and wintertemperature affected settlement and expansion of nutria, considering the research results and the physiological and ecological characteristics of nutria. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect them as important variables in the future habitable area detection and expansion estimation modeling. It must be essential to distinguish the concentrated distribution area and the management area of invasive alien species such as nutria and to establish and apply a suitable management strategy to the management site for the permanent control. The results in this study can be used as useful data for a strategic management such as rapid management on the preferential management area and preemptive and preventive management on the possible spreading area.

Development of a Daily Solar Major Flare Occurrence Probability Model Based on Vector Parameters from SDO/HMI

  • Lim, Daye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Park, Jongyeob;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jin-Yi
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.42 no.2
    • /
    • pp.59.5-60
    • /
    • 2017
  • We present the relationship between vector magnetic field parameters and solar major flare occurrence rate. Based on this, we are developing a forecast model of major flare (M and X-class) occurrence rate within a day using hourly vector magnetic field data of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) from May 2010 to April 2017. In order to reduce the projection effect, we use SHARP data whose longitudes are within ${\pm}60$ degrees. We consider six SHARP magnetic parameters (the total unsigned current helicity, the total photospheric magnetic free energy density, the total unsigned vertical current, the absolute value of the net current helicity, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity, and the total unsigned magnetic flux) with high F-scores as useful predictors of flaring activity from Bobra and Couvidat (2015). We have considered two cases. In case 1, we have divided the data into two sets separated in chronological order. 75% of the data before a given day are used for setting up a flare model and 25% of the data after that day are used for test. In case 2, the data are divided into two sets every year in order to reduce the solar cycle (SC) phase effect. All magnetic parameters are divided into 100 groups to estimate the corresponding flare occurrence rates. The flare identification is determined by using LMSAL flare locations, giving more numbers of flares than the NGDC flare list. Major results are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with six magnetic parameters. Second, the occurrence rate ranges from 0.001 to 1 for M and X-class flares. Third, the logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by two linear equations with different slopes: steeper one at lower values and lower one at higher values. Fourth, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity gives the minimum RMS error between observed flare rates and predicted ones. Fifth, the RMS error for case 2, which is taken to reduce SC phase effect, are smaller than those for case 1.

  • PDF

Optimal Seismic Rehabilitation of Structures Using Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model (확률적 지진요구모델을 이용한 구조물의 최적 내진보강)

  • Park, Joo-Nam;Choi, Eun-Soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2008
  • The seismic performance of a structure designed without consideration of seismic loading can be effectively enhanced through seismic rehabilitation. The appropriate level of rehabilitation should be determined based on the decision criteria that minimize the anticipated earthquake-related losses. To estimate the anticipated losses, seismic risk analysis should be performed considering the probabilistic characteristics of the hazard and the structural damage. This study presents the decision procedure in which the probabilistic seismic demand model is utilized for the effective estimation and minimization of the total seismic losses through seismic rehabilitation. The probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the structural damage for a specified time period are established in a closed form, and are combined with the loss functions to derive the expected seismic loss. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for making decisions on the seismic rehabilitation of structural systems.

Stability Analysis of the Unsaturated Infinite Slope Considering Suction Stress under Steady Infiltration Condition (정상침투조건에서 흡입응력을 고려한 불포화 무한사면의 안정해석)

  • Song, Young-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.29 no.9
    • /
    • pp.5-15
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this paper, the unsaturated slope stability analysis considering suction stress (Lu and Godt, 2008) was introduced and the results applied for a certain sand slope were analyzed. The unsaturated slope stability analysis considering suction stress can analyze both conditions of steady infiltration and no infiltration, and it can estimate the safety factor of slope as a function of soil depth. Also, the influence of weathering phenomenon at a certain depth from the ground surface can be considered. The stability analysis considering suction stress was applied to the unsaturated infinite slope composed of sand with the relative density of 60%. The suction stress under no infiltration condition was affected by ground water table until a certain influencing depth. However, the suction stress under steady infiltration condition was affected by seepage throughout the soils. Especially, the maximum suction stress was displayed around ground surface. The factor of safety in the infinite slope under no infiltration condition rapidly increased and decreased within the influence zone of ground water table. As a result of slope stability analysis, the factor of safety is less than 1 at the depth of 2.4 m below the ground surface. It means that the probability of slope failure is too high within the range of depths. The factor of safety under steady infiltration condition is greater than that under no infiltration condition due to the change of suction stress induced by seepage. As the steady infiltration rate of precipitation was getting closer to the saturated hydraulic conductivity, the factor of safety decreased. In case of the steady infiltration rate of precipitation with $-1.8{\times}10^{-3}cm/s$, the factor of safety is less than 1 at the depths between 0.2 m and 3 m below the ground surface. It means that the probability of slope failure is too high within the range of depths, and type of slope failure is likely to be shallow landslides.