• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability density distribution

Search Result 505, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Microstructure, Tensile Strength and Probabilistic Fatigue Life Evaluation of Gray Cast Iron (회주철의 미세구조와 인장거동 분석 및 확률론적 피로수명평가)

  • Sung, Yong Hyeon;Han, Seung-Wook;Choi, Nak-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.41 no.8
    • /
    • pp.721-728
    • /
    • 2017
  • High-grade gray cast iron (HCI350) was prepared by adding Cr, Mo and Cu to the gray cast iron (GC300). Their microstructure, mechanical properties and fatigue strength were studied. Cast iron was made from round bar and plate-type castings, and was cut and polished to measure the percentage of each microstructure. The size of flake graphite decreased due to additives, while the structure of high density pearlite increased in volume percentage improving the tensile strength and fatigue strength. Based on the fatigue life data obtained from the fatigue test results, the probability - stress - life (P-S-N) curve was calculated using the 2-parameter Weibull distribution to which the maximum likelihood method was applied. The P-S-N curve showed that the fatigue strength of HCI350 was significantly improved and the dispersion of life data was lower than that of GC300. However, the fatigue life according to fatigue stress alleviation increased further. Data for reliability life design was presented by quantitatively showing the allowable stress value for the required life cycle number using the calculated P-S-N curve.

The Effect of Smart Safety and Health Activities on Workers' Intended Behavior (스마트 안전보건활동이 근로자의 의도된 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Choonhwan Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.519-531
    • /
    • 2023
  • With the aim of preventing safety accidents at construction sites, the company aims to create safe behaviors intended through variables called smart safety and health activities to help reduce industrial accidents. Purpose: It analyzes how smart safety and health activities affect accidents caused by unsafe behavior and changes in worker behavior, which is the root cause, and verifies the hypothesis that it helps prevent safety accidents and protect workers' lives. Method: Smart safety and health activities were selected as independent variables (X), and intended safety and anxiety, which are workers' behavioral intentions, were set as dependent variables (Y), attitude and subjective norms, and planned behavioral control as parameters (M). Exploratory factor analysis, discriminant validity analysis, and intensive validity analysis of safety and health activities were used to analyze the scale's reliability and validity. To verify the hypothesis of behavior change, the study was verified through Bayesian model analysis and MC simulation's probability density distribution. Result: It was found that workers who experienced smart safety and health activities at construction sites had the highest analysis of reducing unstable behavior and performing intended safety behavior. The research hypothesis that this will affect changes in worker behavior has been proven, the correlation between variables has been verified in the structural equation and path analysis of the research analysis, and it has been confirmed that smart safety and health activities can control and reduce worker instability. Conclusion: Smart safety and health activities are a very important item to prevent accidents and change workers' behavior at construction sites.

Drought Frequency Analysis Using Cluster Analysis and Bivariate Probability Distribution (군집분석과 이변량 확률분포를 이용한 가뭄빈도해석)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.30 no.6B
    • /
    • pp.599-606
    • /
    • 2010
  • Due to the short period of precipitation data in Korea, the uncertainty of drought analysis is inevitable from a point frequency analysis. So it is desired to introduce a regional drought frequency analysis. This study first extracted drought characteristics from 3-month and 12-month moving average rainfalls which represent short and long-term droughts, respectively. Then, the homogeneous regions were distinguished by performing a principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The Korean peninsula was classified into five regions based on drought characteristics. Finally, this study applied the bivariate frequency analysis using a kernel density function to quantify the regionalized drought characteristics. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the drought severities of five regions were evaluated for durations of 2, 5, 10, and 20 months, and return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years. As a result, the largest severity of drought was occurred in the Lower Geum River basin, in the Youngsan River basin, and over in the southern coast of Korea.

Characteristics of the Graded Wildlife Dose Assessment Code K-BIOTA and Its Application (단계적 야생동식물 선량평가 코드 K-BIOTA의 특성 및 적용)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Kim, Byeong-Ho;Choi, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.252-260
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 & 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied.The applicability of the code was tested through the participation of IAEA EMRAS II (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) for the comparison study of environmental models comparison, and as the result, it was proved that the K-BIOTA would be very useful to assess the radiation risk of the wildlife living in the various contaminated environment.

A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.149-155
    • /
    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.