• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability based maintenance

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A Fuzzy Inference based Reliability Method for Underground Gas Pipelines in the Presence of Corrosion Defects

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik;Ki, Ikjoong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2016
  • Remaining lifetime prediction of the underground gas pipeline plays a key role in maintenance planning and public safety. One of main causes in the pipeline failure is metal corrosion. This paper deals with estimating the pipeline reliability in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline has uncertainty and variability in its operation, probabilistic approximation approaches such as first order second moment (FOSM), first order reliability method (FORM), second order reliability method (SORM), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are widely employed for pipeline reliability predictions. This paper presents a fuzzy inference based reliability method (FIRM). Compared with existing methods, a distinction of our method is to incorporate a fuzzy inference into quantifying degrees of variability in corrosion defects. As metal corrosion depends on the service environment, this feature makes it easier to obtain practical predictions. Numerical experiments are conducted by using a field dataset. The result indicates that the proposed method works well and, in particular, it provides more advisory estimations of the remaining lifetime of the gas pipeline.

Development of the Base Station Controller and Manager in the CDMA Mobile System

  • Ahn, Jee-Hwan;Shin, Dong-Jin;Cho, Cheol-Hye
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.141-168
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    • 1997
  • The base station (BS) in the CDMA Mobile System (CMS) connects calls through the radio interface and is designed to provide mobile subscribers with high quality service in spite of mobile subscribers motions. The BS consists of multiple base station transceiver subsystems (BTSs), a base station controller (BSC) and a base station manager (BSM). This paper is concerned with the BSC and the BSM. The BSC is located between the BTSs and the mobile switching center (MSC) connected with the public network, and to mobile subscribers via the BTSs. The BSM provides operator-interfaces per the BS and takes responsibility of operation and maintenance (OAM) of the BS. Design of the BSC is based on two module types: functional module and unit module. The functional module is used to support new services easily and the unit module to increase the system capacity economically. Both modular types are easily achieved by inserting the corresponding modules to the system. Particularly, in order to efficiently support the soft handover which is one of CDMA superior advantages, the BSC adopts a large high-speed Packet switch connecting up to 512 BTSs, and thus mobile subscribers can be provided with soft handover in high probability. The BSM is based on a commercial workstation to support OAM functions efficiently and guarantee high reliability of the functions. The BSM uses graphical user interface (GUI) for efficient OAM functions of the BS.

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Towards the Application of Safety Integrity Level for Improving Process Safety (공정안전향상을 위한 Safety Integrity Level의 적용 방향)

  • Kwon, Hyuck-Myun;Park, Hee-Chul;Chun, Young-Woo;Park, Jin-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.64-69
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    • 2012
  • The concept of SIL is applied in the most of all standards relating to functional system safety. However there are problems for the people to apply SIL to their plants. as these standards don't include sufficient informations. In this regards, this paper will suggest the direction of SIL application and concept based on IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. A Safety Integrity Level(SIL) is the discrete level(one out of possible fours), corresponding to a range of the probability of an E/E/PE (Electric/Electrical/Programmable Electrical) safety-related system satisfactorily performing the specific safety functions under all the stated conditions within a stated period of time. SIL can be divided into the target SIL(or required SIL) and the result SIL. The target SIL is determined by the risk analysis at the analysis phase of safety lifecycle and the result SIL is calculated during SIL verification at the realization phase of safety lifecycle. The target SIL is determined by the risk analysis like LOPA(Layer Of Protection Analysis), Risk Graph, Risk Matrix and the result SIL is calculated by HFT(Hardware Fault Tolerance), SFF(Safe Failure Fraction) and PFDavg(average Probability of dangerous Failure on Demand). SIL is applied to various areas such as process safety, machinery(road vehicles, railway application, rotating equipment, etc), nuclear sector which functional safety is applied. The functional safety is the part of the overall safety relating to the EUC and the EUC control system that depends on the correct functioning of the E/E/PE safety-related systems and other risk reduction measures. SIL is applied only to the functional safety of SIS(Safety Instrumented System) in safety. EUC is the abbreviation of Equipment Under Control and is the equipment, machinery, apparatus or plant used for manufacturing, process, transportation, medical or other activities.

Evaluating LIMU System Quality with Interval Evidence and Input Uncertainty

  • Xiangyi Zhou;Zhijie Zhou;Xiaoxia Han;Zhichao Ming;Yanshan Bian
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.2945-2965
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    • 2023
  • The laser inertial measurement unit is a precision device widely used in rocket navigation system and other equipment, and its quality is directly related to navigation accuracy. In the quality evaluation of laser inertial measurement unit, there is inevitably uncertainty in the index input information. First, the input numerical information is in interval form. Second, the index input grade and the quality evaluation result grade are given according to different national standards. So, it is a key step to transform the interval information input by the index into the data form consistent with the evaluation result grade. In the case of uncertain input, this paper puts forward a method based on probability distribution to solve the problem of asymmetry between the reference grade given by the index and the evaluation result grade when evaluating the quality of laser inertial measurement unit. By mapping the numerical relationship between the designated reference level and the evaluation reference level of the index information under different distributions, the index evidence symmetrical with the evaluation reference level is given. After the uncertain input information is transformed into evidence of interval degree distribution by this method, the information fusion of interval degree distribution evidence is carried out by interval evidential reasoning algorithm, and the evaluation result is obtained by projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy optimization. Taking a five-meter redundant laser inertial measurement unit as an example, the applicability and effectiveness of this method are verified.

Localized reliability analysis on a large-span rigid frame bridge based on monitored strains from the long-term SHM system

  • Liu, Zejia;Li, Yinghua;Tang, Liqun;Liu, Yiping;Jiang, Zhenyu;Fang, Daining
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.209-224
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    • 2014
  • With more and more built long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) systems, it has been considered to apply monitored data to learn the reliability of bridges. In this paper, based on a long-term SHM system, especially in which the sensors were embedded from the beginning of the construction of the bridge, a method to calculate the localized reliability around an embedded sensor is recommended and implemented. In the reliability analysis, the probability distribution of loading can be the statistics of stress transferred from the monitored strain which covered the effects of both the live and dead loads directly, and it means that the mean value and deviation of loads are fully derived from the monitored data. The probability distribution of resistance may be the statistics of strength of the material of the bridge accordingly. With five years' monitored strains, the localized reliabilities around the monitoring sensors of a bridge were computed by the method. Further, the monitored stresses are classified into two time segments in one year period to count the loading probability distribution according to the local climate conditions, which helps us to learn the reliability in different time segments and their evolvement trends. The results show that reliabilities and their evolvement trends in different parts of the bridge are different though they are all reliable yet. The method recommended in this paper is feasible to learn the localized reliabilities revealed from monitored data of a long-term SHM system of bridges, which would help bridge engineers and managers to decide a bridge inspection or maintenance strategy.

The Prediction of Remaining Life of Concrete Bridge Decks Using The Reliability Analysis (신뢰도 분석을 통한 고속도로 교량의 바닥판 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Park, Jung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Soon;Kim, Ji-Won;Park, Cheol-Woo;Lee, Dong-Hyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2011
  • Korean national highway has been increased 2 times more for the past ten years because of many highway geometric improvements and new routes since 2000. According to the reasons, maintenance cost has been increased continuously. Deterioration of concrete bridge decks caused by asphalt pavement deformation occupies a high proportion of overall bridge management budget. The number of current highway bridges has reached over 7,800 in 2011, and It is difficult to determine to some future budget. This study predicted the remaining life of concrete bridge decks using the reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution. and The expected future maintenance cost was estimated.

The establishment of Proactive Routing Selection and Maintenance Algorithms for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (이동 Ad Hoc 네트워크에서 사전 활성화 라우팅 선택과 관리유지 알고리즘의 구축)

  • Cho, Young-Joo;Lee, Yeo-Jin;Chung, Il-Yong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.14C no.1 s.111
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2007
  • In conventional on-demand mobile ad hoc routing algorithms, an alternate path is sought only after an active path is broken. It incurs a significant cost in terms of money and time in detecting the disconnection and establishing a new route. In this thesis, we propose proactive route selection and maintenance to conventional mobile ad hoc on-demand routing algorithms. The key idea for this research is to only consider a path break to be likely when the signal power of a received packet drops below an optimal threshold value and to generate a forewarning packet. In other words, if a path is lost with high probability, the neighboring node that may easily be cut off notifies the source node by sending a forewarning packet. Then the source node can initiate route discovery early and switched to a reliable path potentially avoiding the disconnection altogether. For the simulational study, network simulator(NS2) is used. The result of simulation shows that the algorithm significantly improves the performance of networks comparing to conventional on-demand routing protocols based on DSR and AODV in terms of packet delivery ratio, packet latency and routing overhead.

The Evaluation of Non-Destructive Formulas on Compressive Strength Using the Reliability Based on Probability (확률 기반의 신뢰도를 이용한 비파괴 압축강도 추정식 평가)

  • Park, Jin-Woo;Choo, Jin-Ho;Park, Gwang-Rim;Hwang, In-Baek;Shin, Yong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2015
  • Proposed equation is used many time in calculation of concrete compressive strength using the non-destructive testing at precision safety diagnosis. Most of proposed equation is suggested in abroad and have an error to estimate concrete compressive strength in the domestic. Therefor, proposed equation is low reliability to estimate concrete compressive and it has a significant effect in reliability of precision safety diagnosis. Nevertheless, It is possible to increase the reliability through a number of experiments from this problem that occurs in some localized part. This paper is proposed assessment formula of reliability related core compressive strength to increase the reliability. It is verified that reliability of proposed assessment formula is useful by probabilistic techniques. It is compared with each graphs of concrete compressive strength of proposed equation. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient.

A Long-term Durability Prediction for RC Structures Exposed to Carbonation Using Probabilistic Approach (확률론적 기법을 이용한 탄산화 RC 구조물의 내구성 예측)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Gyu-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2010
  • This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

Comparative Study of AI Models for Reliability Function Estimation in NPP Digital I&C System Failure Prediction (원전 디지털 I&C 계통 고장예측을 위한 신뢰도 함수 추정 인공지능 모델 비교연구)

  • DaeYoung Lee;JeongHun Lee;SeungHyeok Yang
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • The nuclear power plant(NPP)'s Instrumentation and Control(I&C) system periodically conducts integrity checks for the maintenance of self-diagnostic function during normal operation. Additionally, it performs functionality and performance checks during planned preventive maintenance periods. However, there is a need for technological development to diagnose failures and prevent accidents in advance. In this paper, we studied methods for estimating the reliability function by utilizing environmental data and self-diagnostic data of the I&C equipment. To obtain failure data, we assumed probability distributions for component features of the I&C equipment and generated virtual failure data. Using this failure data, we estimated the reliability function using representative artificial intelligence(AI) models used in survival analysis(DeepSurve, DeepHit). And we also estimated the reliability function through the Cox regression model of the traditional semi-parametric method. We confirmed the feasibility through the residual lifetime calculations based on environmental and diagnostic data.