• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.241-250
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• 2015

An important scientific objective of longitudinal studies involves tracking the probability of a subject having certain health condition over the course of the study. Proper definitions and estimates of disease risk tracking have important implications in the design and analysis of long-term biomedical studies and in developing guidelines for disease prevention and intervention. We study in this paper a class of rank-tracking probabilities to describe a subject's conditional probabilities of having certain health outcomes at two different time points. Linear mixed effects models are considered to estimate the tracking probabilities and their ratios of interest. We apply our methods to an epidemiological study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.22-29
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• 2017

A study is performed for the effective detection method of a fault which is occurred during operation in a small turbojet engine with non-linear characteristics used by unmanned air vehicle. For this study the non-linear dynamic model of the engine is derived from transient thermodynamic cycle analysis. Also for inducing real operation conditions the controller is developed associated with unscented Kalman filter to estimate noises. Sequential probability ratio test is introduced as a real time method to detect a fault which is manipulated for simulation as a malfunction of rotational speed sensor contaminated by large amount of noise. The method applied to the fault detection during operation verifies its effectiveness and high feasibility by showing good and definite decision performances of the fault.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.148-154
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• 2021

With advancements of quay side handling equipment and technologies, congestion in terminal operation has moved to the storage yard side from the quay side. The importance of storage yard management has increased in overall terminal operation. Thus, many studies have been conducted to optimize the storage yard management of container terminals. However, there is no academic work to estimate the change of storage yard occupancy ratio by itself in the future. This paper examines the probability of storage yard occupancy ratio in the container terminal of Busan New port using the Markov chain analysis which explains probability change with passing time. The result shows that it is most likely to have the probability of maintaining a high level of storage yard occupancy ratio in the container terminal of Busan New Port.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.8
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• pp.2915-2923
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• 2022

There is an increasing interest in passive safety systems to minimize the need for operator intervention or external power sources in nuclear power plants. Because a passive system has a weak driving force, there is greater uncertainty in the performance compared with an active system. In previous studies, several methods have been suggested to evaluate passive system reliability, and many of them estimated the failure probability using thermal-hydraulic analyses and the Monte Carlo method. However, if the functional failure of a passive system is rare, it is difficult to estimate the failure probability using conventional methods owing to their high computational time. In this paper, a procedure for the application of the Chernoff bound to the evaluation of passive system reliability is proposed. A feasibility study of the procedure was conducted on a passive decay heat removal system of a micro modular reactor in its conceptual design phase, and it was demonstrated that the passive system reliability can be evaluated without performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic analyses or Monte Carlo simulations when the system has a small failure probability. Accordingly, the advantages and constraints of applying the Chernoff bound for passive system reliability evaluation are discussed in this paper.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.393-408
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• 2016

Weibull distribution is a suitable distribution to use in modeling the life time data. It has been found to be a exact fit for the empirical distribution of the wind speed measurement samples. In brief this paper consist of important properties and characters of Weibull distribution. Also we discuss the application of Weibull distribution to wind speed measurements and derive an expression for the probability distribution of the power produced by a wind turbine at a fixed location, so that the modeling problem reduces to collecting data to estimate the three parameters of the Weibull distribution using Maximum likelihood Method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.141-150
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• 2013

There is mounting evidence that complex computer system displays in control rooms contribute to cognitive complexity and, thus, to the probability of human error. Research shows that reaction time increases and response accuracy decreases as the number of elements in the display screen increase. However, in terms of supporting the control room operator, approaches focusing on addressing display complexity solely in terms of information density and its location and patterning, will fall short of delivering a properly designed interface. This paper argues that information complexity and semantic complexity are mandatory components when considering display complexity and that the addition of these concepts assists in understanding and resolving differences between designers and the preferences and performance of operators. This paper concludes that a number of simplified methods, when combined, can be used to estimate the impact that a particular display may have on the operator's ability to perform a function accurately and effectively. We present a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach and a method for complexity estimation.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.766-772
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• 1999

With the increase of portable system and high-density IC, power consumption of VLSI circuits is very important factor in design process. Power estimation is required in order to estimate the power consumption. A simple and correct solution of power estimation is to use circuit simulation. But it is very time consuming and inefficient way. Probabilistic method has been proposed to overcome this problem. Transition density using probability was an efficient method to estimate power consumption using BDD and Boolean difference. But it is difficult to build the BDD and compute complex Boolean difference. In this paper, we proposed Propowest. Propowest is building a digraph of circuit, and easy and fast in computing transition density by using modified COP algorithm. Propowest provides an efficient way for power estimation.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.3 no.5
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• pp.1253-1261
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• 1996

The base station (BS) of CDMA mobile system (CMS) provides mobile call services by controlling call processing functions. The call Processing part of the BS is divided into two components; the base station transceiver subsystem (BTS) and the base station controller (BSC). In this paper, we present the call capacity estimation of the BS about control signals and traffic data of calls by the simulation, and find the bottleneck points and problems which may occur in the BS. In order to estimate the call capacity, first we extract the major parameters for the modeling the BS. Second, we suggest the simulation model for the BS. Third, we estimate the simulation results by finding major objective factors such that the call blocking probability, the utilization ratio and the delay time in the traffic channel elements (TCEs), the BTS interconnection network (BIN)-COMA interconnection network (CIN) trunks, the transcoding channels and the CIN packet router.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.167-173
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• 1998

In order to estimate the life time of epoxy composites used for modeling material of transformer, the AC breakdown experiments of it were experimented and then the AC breakdown data were also simulated by Weibull distribution equation in this study. The life time of H100F65 specimen was the shortest and it of SH100F65 specimen was the longest, and as the AC voltage was applied to specimen for 50[min], the breakdown probability of each specimen was 31.2[%], 17.00[%], 84.36[%] and 12.35[%], respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.383-387
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• 2003

Construction project has many problem such as delay of the appointed date delivery, over budget, wether and site conditions. When several activities are influenced by the same factor, their duration may be delayed. This paper deals with the problem of construction duration estimating and schedule variation on the construction project. The theory of constraints technique for project management is referred to 'Critical Chain' technique. This paper shows optimal scheduling plan and time management technique, used probability construction duration estimating and scheduling buffer based on the critical chain project management.