• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Score

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Predictive Value of IHC4 Score for Pathological Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

  • Elsamany, Shereef;Elmorsy, Soha;Alzahrani, Abdullah;Rasmy, Ayman;Abozeed, Waleed N;Mohammed, Amrallah A;Sherisher, Mohamed A;Abbas, Mohammed M;Mashhour, Miral
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.17
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    • pp.7975-7979
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study aimed to explore the value of IHC4 in predicting pathological response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with hormonal receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer (BC). Materials and Methods: In this retrospective exploratory study, data for 68 HR-positive BC patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy were recorded. IHC4 scores were calculated based on estrogen receptors/progesterone receptors, Ki-67 and HER2 status. Logistic and ordinal regression analyses in addition to likelihood ratio test were used to explore associations of IHC4 scores and other clinico-pathological parameters with pathological complete response (pCR) and pathological stage. Results: Taking the 25th percentile as the cut-off, a lower IHC4 score was associated with an increased probability of pCR (low; 52.9% vs. High; 21.6%, OR=4.1, 95% CI=1.28-13.16, p=0.018) and a lower pathological stage (OR=3.9, 95% CI=1.34-11.33, p=0.012). When the IHC4 score was treated as a continuous variable, a lower score was again associated with an increased probability of pCR (OR=1.010, 95% CI=1.001-1.018, p=0.025) and lower pathological stage (OR=1.009, 95% CI=1.002-1.017, P=0.008). Lower clinical stage was associated with a better pCR rate that was of borderline significance (P=0.056). When clinical stage and IHC4 score were incorporated together in a logistic model, the likelihood ratio test gave a P-value of 0.004 after removal of the IHC4 score and 0.011 after removal of the stage, indicating a more significant predictive value of the IHC4 score for pCR. Conclusions: This study suggests that the IHC4 score can predict pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in HR-positive BC patients. This finding now needs to be validated in a larger cohort of patients.

PARK Index and S-score Can Be Good Quality Indicators for the Preventable Mortality in a Single Trauma Center

  • Park, Chan Yong;Lee, Kyung Hag;Lee, Na Yun;Kim, Su Ji;Cho, Hyun Min;Lee, Chan Kyu
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.126-130
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Preventable Trauma Death Rate (PTDR) using Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) has been most widely used as a quality indicator in South Korea. However, this method has a small number of deaths corresponding to the denominator. Therefore, it is difficult to check the change of quality improvement for annual mortality, and there is a disadvantage that variation is severe. Therefore, we attempted to improve the quality of the mortality evaluation by reducing the variation by applying the PARK Index (preventable major trauma death rate, PMTDR) which can increase the number of denominator significantly. And the Save score (S-score) was also examined as another quality indicator. Methods: In the PARK Index, the denominator is number of all patients who have survival probability (Ps) larger than 0.25. Numerator is the number of deaths among these. The PARK Index includes only patients with ISS >15. The S-score is calculated in the same way as the W-score, but the S-score includes only patients with ISS >15, which is a difference from the W-score. Results: PARK Index decreased annually and was 12.9 (37/287) in 2014, 9.6 (33/343) in 2015, and 7.3 (52/709) in 2016. S-score increased annually and was -0.29 in 2014, 4.21 in 2015, and 8.75 in 2016. Conclusions: PARK Index and S-score improved annually. This shows that both quality indicators are improving year by year. PARK Index (PMTDR) has 9.5-fold increase in denominator overall compared to PTDR by TRISS. The S-score used only ISS >15 patients as a denominator. Therefore, there is an advantage that the numerical value change is larger than the W-score. In addition, S-score is not affected by the ratio of major trauma patients to minor trauma patients.

Confidence Intervals for a tow Binomial Proportion (낮은 이항 비율에 대한 신뢰구간)

  • Ryu Jae-Bok;Lee Seung-Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2006
  • e discuss proper confidence intervals for interval estimation of a low binomial proportion. A large sample surveys are practically executed to find rates of rare diseases, specified industrial disaster, and parasitic infection. Under the conditions of 0 < p ${\leq}$ 0.1 and large n, we compared 6 confidence intervals with mean coverage probability, root mean square error and mean expected widths to search a good one for interval estimation of population proportion p. As a result of comparisons, Mid-p confidence interval is best and AC, score and Jeffreys confidence intervals are next.

Board Structure and Likelihood of Financial Distress: An Emerging Asian Market Perspective

  • UD-DIN, Shahab;KHAN, Muhammad Yar;JAVEED, Anam;PHAM, Ha
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2020
  • This study examines the relationship between the attributes of board structure and the likelihood of financial distress for the non-financial sector of an emerging market characterized by concentrated ownership and family-controlled business. The present study utilized panel logistic regression to estimate the relationship between board structure attributes and the likelihood of financial distress. We used Altman Z-Score as a proxy for firm financial distress, as this tool measures the financial distress inversely. The study finds a significant relationship between board size and the likelihood of financial distress. The results show that a one-unit increase in board size would decrease the probability of financial distress by 3.4%. Further, we observe that a greater level of board independence is associated with a lower likelihood of financial distress. A one-unit increase in board independence would decrease the probability of financial distress by 20.4%. We also find a significant positive impact of leverage on the likelihood of financial distress. The present study contributes to the body of literature on board structure attributes and likelihood of financial distress in emerging markets, like Pakistan. Furthermore, the findings would be beneficial for corporate policymakers and investors in formulating corporate financial strategy and predicting business failure.

Test-Retest Reliability of Brief KS-15 -Korean Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire- (단축형 사상체질 진단 설문지(KS-15)의 검사-재검사 신뢰도 연구)

  • Kim, Yunyoung;Jang, Eunsu
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliabilities of questions and diagnostic value of the Korean Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire(KS-15). The young adults aged 20's participated in this study. The first survey was conducted in march, 2016, and the second one was conducted two weeks later. Three hundred and three questionnaires and the informed consent were obtained from all participants. The test-retest kappa analysis was used to identify the reliabilities of the questions and diagnostic value, and the significance level was .05. The number of subjects was 303 [87(28.7%)males and 216(71.3%)females]. The Cronbach's α were .630 in 6 characteristic questions. The test-retest reliabilities of questions were ranged from .469 to 734. The agreement rate of KS-15 between the first and second constitutional diagnostic value was 87.13%(Kappa=0.794). The higher Sasang constitutional probability score in first survey resulted in the higher agreement rate between first and second diagnostic value. KS-15 seems to be a reliable implement. Further studies for the reliability of the people of different ages and suitable cut off point in Sasang constitutional probability score are needed for the practical use of KS-15.

Strengthening Causal Inference in Studies using Non-experimental Data: An Application of Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods (비실험자료를 이용한 연구에서 인과적 추론의 강화: 성향점수와 도구변수 방법의 적용)

  • Kim, Myoung-Hee;Do, Young-Kyung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : This study attempts to show how studies using non-experimental data can strengthen causal inferences by applying propensity score and instrumental variable methods based on the counterfactual framework. For illustrative purposes, we examine the effect of having private health insurance on the probability of experiencing at least one hospital admission in the previous year. Methods : Using data from the 4th wave of the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study, we compared the results obtained using propensity score and instrumental variable methods with those from conventional logistic and linear regression models, respectively. Results : While conventional multiple regression analyses fail to identify the effect, the results estimated using propensity score and instrumental variable methods suggest that having private health insurance has positive and statistically significant effects on hospital admission. Conclusions : This study demonstrates that propensity score and instrumental variable methods provide potentially useful alternatives to conventional regression approaches in making causal inferences using non-experimental data.

Cumulative Probability of Prostate Cancer Detection Using the International Prostate Symptom Score in a Prostate-specific Antigen-based Population Screening Program in Japan

  • Kitagawa, Yasuhide;Urata, Satoko;Narimoto, Kazutaka;Nakagawa, Tomomi;Izumi, Kouji;Kadono, Yoshifumi;Konaka, Hiroyuki;Mizokami, Atsushi;Namiki, Mikio
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.17
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    • pp.7079-7083
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    • 2014
  • The International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) is often used as an interview sheet for assessing lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) at the time of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing during population-based screening for prostate cancer. However, the relationship between prostate cancer detection and LUTS status remains controversial. To elucidate this relationship, the cumulative probability of prostate cancer detection using IPSS in biopsy samples from patients categorized by serum PSA levels was investigated. The clinical characteristics of prostate cancer detected using IPSS during screening were also investigated. A total of 1,739 men aged 54-75 years with elevated serum PSA levels who completed the IPSS questionnaire during the initial population screening in Kanazawa City, Japan and underwent systematic transrectal ultrasonography-guided prostate biopsy between 2000 and 2013 were enrolled in the present study. Of the 1,739 men, 544 (31.3%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer during the observation period. The probability of cancer detection at 3 years in the entire study population was 27.4% and 32.7% for men with $IPSS{\leq}7$ and those with $IPSS{\geq}8$, respectively; there was no statistically significant difference between groups. In men with serum PSA levels of 6.1 to 12.0ng/mL at initial screening, the probability of cancer detection was significantly higher in men with $IPSS{\leq}7$ than in those with $IPSS{\geq}8$. There were no significant differences in clinical characteristics between groups of patients stratified by IPSS. These findings indicate that the use of IPSS for LUTS status evaluation may be useful for prostate cancer detection in the limited range of serum PSA levels.

Predicting Probability of Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Network and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (인공신경망과 중규모기상수치예보를 이용한 강수확률예측)

  • Kang, Boosik;Lee, Bongki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.485-493
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    • 2008
  • The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was suggested for predicting probability of precipitation (PoP) using RDAPS NWP model, observation at AWS and upper-air sounding station. The prediction work was implemented for flood season and the data period is the July, August of 2001 and June of 2002. Neural network input variables (predictors) were composed of geopotential height 500/750/1000 hPa, atmospheric thickness 500-1000 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 500 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 750 hPa, wind speed at surface, temperature at 500/750 hPa/surface, mean sea level pressure, 3-hr accumulated precipitation, occurrence of observed precipitation, precipitation accumulated in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, precipitation occurrence in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, relative humidity measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water difference in 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run. The suggested ANN has a 3-layer perceptron (multi layer perceptron; MLP) and back-propagation learning algorithm. The result shows that there were 6.8% increase in Hit rate (H), especially 99.2% and 148.1% increase in Threat Score (TS) and Probability of Detection (POD). It illustrates that the suggested ANN model can be a useful tool for predicting rainfall event prediction. The Kuipers Skill Score (KSS) was increased 92.8%, which the ANN model improves the rainfall occurrence prediction over RDAPS.

A study on the relationship between Health Locus of Central and Health behavier of residents in Choong Nam Province (충남 일부주민의 건강통제위성격과 건강행위와의 관계연구)

  • 이영휘
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.118-127
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    • 1988
  • This descriptive-correlational study was undertaken in order to examine if there was relationship between health locus of control and health behavior of 122 residents in Choong Nam Province. The sampling method was non-probability, conventent sampling technique. Questionnaire survey was conducted from March 2 to March 11, 1988. Each participant completed the Multidimensional Health Locus of control(MHLC) scale (Wallsten & Wallston, 1978) and Health Behavior scale (developed by Dr. cho) The collected data were analyzed using Peason Correlation coefficient, t-test and Analusis of Variance. The results were as follows : 1. Hypothesis 1, stating that the higer the score of internal health locus of control, the higher the Score of level of actual implementation of health behavior was supported(r=.1344, p<.05). 2. Hypothesis 2, stating that the higher the score of chance health locus of control, the lower the score of level of actual implementation of health behavior was not supported (r=-.1344, p>.05). 3. Hypothesis 3, stating that the higher the score of internal health locus of control, the higher the score of the level of perceived importance of health behavior was supported (r=.3373, p<.001). 4. Hypothesis 4, stating that the higher the score of chance health locus of control, the lower the score of level of perceived importance of health behavior was not supported (r=-.0810, p>.05). 5. The mean score of internal was 23.36, powerful others was 19.04 and chance 15.36 out of maximum range of 6-30 respectively. The mean score of level of actual implementation of health behavior was 112.84 and level of perceived importance of health behavior 143.60 our of maximum range of 32-160 respectively. 6. The variances which were related with the level of actual implementation of health behavior, were education level, occupation, economic status, referred method of primary health, management and resicent's place. And the variance which were related with the level of perceived importance of health behavior were sex, economic status and occupation.

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Acculturation, Cultural Orientation, and Clothing Involvement of International Students in Korea

  • Youn, Song-Yi;Lee, Kyu-Hye
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.641-652
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    • 2012
  • This study took the conceptual framework of acculturation styles into the empirical investigation of international students in Korea. This research identifies the differences in acculturation styles, the characteristics of each segment, the effect of acculturation styles on clothing involvement (clothing involvement and risk probability), and the effect of cultural orientation values (individualism and collectivism) as covariates. The participants were international students attending a university located in Seoul. Data from 153 international students were used for statistical analysis. Respondents were grouped into four acculturation styles (integration, assimilation, separation, and marginalization). The assimilation group had the highest mean score of clothing interest. Cultural orientation values showed a significant covariate effect. With individualism as covariates, the main effect of acculturation styles on clothing interest was significant. In clothing product evaluation criteria, the integration group regarded design, fit and trend as most important. The marginalization group showed a mean score that was significantly lower in brand preference and satisfaction; however, the assimilation group had a mean score that was significantly higher.