• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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• pp.1103-1106
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• 2004

The objective of this study is to induce the design drought rainfall by the methodology of L-moment including testing homogeneity, independence and outlier of the data of annual minimum monthly rainfall in 57 rainfall stations in Korea in terms of consecutive duration for 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 and 12 months. To select appropriate distribution of the data for annual minimum monthy rainfall by rainfall station, the distribution of generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO) as well as that of generalized pareto (GPA) are applied and the appropriateness of the applied GEV, GLO, and GPA distribution is judged by L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. As for the annual minimum monthly rainfall measured by rainfall station and that stimulated by Monte Carlo techniques, the parameters of the appropriately selected GEV and GPA distributions are calculated by the methodology of L-moment and the design drought rainfall is induced. Through the comparative analysis of design drought rainfall induced by GEV and GPA distribution by rainfall station, the optimal design drought rainfall by rainfall station is provided.

• 물과 미래
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.30-43
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• 1972

The paper describes on the hydrologic analysis of point rainfall data of the three major areas, such as in Seoul, Pusan and Taegu. Scheme of the paper is analyzed five research cases. Contents of the analysis are carried out five kinds of transformed variables for determination of rainfall distribution types and two kinds of reliability tests on unusual(extraordinary) values each rainfall durations:short durations, long durations, long durations, monthly and yearly. Rainfall depth probability had been computed methods of hydrologic amounts analysis namely logarithmic transformations or Gumbel-Chow method and so on, but in this paper it is calculated log xi, n-square root transformations by using normal distribution function and normalization of rainfall distributions is examined graphical tests and $X^2-test$(chi-square test). Furthermore, rainfall depth probability is calculated taking into account the safty factors of project life of hydraulic structures. We think it is advanced contents that considering priceless experiences, the life of structures, conditions and more problems of planning engineers and designers, proposed rainfall amounts(proposed values) are presented charts or figures.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.37-44
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 Grid method를 사용하여 베이지안 비정상성 확률강우량 산정 모형을 확립하였다. 강우 극치자료의 분포로 Gumbel 분포를 채택하였으며, 분포형의 매개변수에 사전분포를 적용하고, 사전분포에 포함된 매개변수에는 초사전 분포를 적용하여 계층적 베이지안 모형을 구성하였다. Grid method는 매개변수의 발생가능 전 구간에 대하여 확률적으로 더 높은 뒷받침이 있는 하위 구간에서 난수를 직접 생성하여 집합을 구성함으로써 잘못된 결과를 도출할 수 가능성이 높은 상황에서도 보다 정확한 매개변수의 추정을 가능케 하므로 매개변수의 추정과정에서 비표준분포로 나타나는 조건부 확률밀도함수를 통한 난수의 추출은 기존에 사용해 온 Metropolis Hastings 알고리즘이 아닌 Grid method를 사용하였다. 개발된 모형은 서울의 1973년부터 2012년까지의 시강우자료를 이용하여 미래에 대한 재현기간에 따른 확률강수량을 산정하였으며, 그 결과로 기존 정상성 가정에 비해 목표연도에 따라 5%에서 8%정도의 증가율을 나타냈다.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2003년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.511-514
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• 2003

This study was conducted to estimate the design rainfall by the determination of best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments of the annual maximum series according to consecutive duration at sixty-five rainfall stations in Korea. Design rainfalls were obtained by generalized extreme value distribution which was selected to be suitable distribution in 4 applied distributions and by L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment. The best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments was determined with the confidence analysis of estimated design rainfall.

• 물과 미래
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.81-85
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• 1976

본 연구는 서울, 대구 및 목포지점의 확률항우량을 회귀선에 의하여 손쉽게 구하고자 유도제시하였다. 재현기간과 10분에서부터 120분까지 각각의 단시간 확률항우량 관계를 직선식으로 유도하였으며 그 직선으로부터 확률항우량을 직접 구할 수 있는 해석적인 방법을 고찰하였다. 연구결과에 의하면 두 변수사이에는 상당한 관계가 있음을 보여줬으며 적절한 변수변환을 시도한다면 세 지점이외 다른 지점도 적용이 가능하리라 사료된다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제23권11호
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• pp.1775-1790
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• 2014

The regional rainfall intensity formula for Gimhae in Gyeongsangnam-do province is developed in this study. The nine points of rainfall observations were selected. In order to demonstrate the accuracy and the versatility of the proposed rainfall intensity formula, three regions under the jurisdiction of the Meteorological Agency near Gimhae, namely Busan, Changwon, Miryang observatories were selected. The present formula can be effectively employed for various design of hydraulic structures in Gimhae area since it is divided into several refined regions.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2011

In this study the optimal volume for non-point source control retention is estimated considering spatio-temporal variation of land surface. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function is used to represent the statistical properties of rainfall events, and NRCS-CN method is applied as rainfall-runoff transformation. The catchment drainage area is divided into individual $30m{\times}30m$ cells, and runoff curve number is estimated at each cell. Using the derived probability density function theory, the stormwater probability density function at each cell is derived from the rainfall probability density function and NRCS-CN rainfall-runoff transformation. Considering the antecedent soil moisture condition at each cell and the spatial variation of CN value at the whole catchment drainage area, the ensemble stormwater capture curve is established to estimate the optimal volume for an non-point source control retention. The comparison between spatio-temporally varied land surface and constant land surface is presented as a case study for a urban drainage area.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2007

A three-state Markov logistic regression model is suggested to forecast the probability of tomorrow's precipitation based on the current meteorological situation. The suggested model turns out to be better than Markov regression model in the sense of the mean squared error of forecasting for the rainfall data of Seoul area.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.247-254
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• 1999

우리 나라 주요 우량관측소 22개 지점의 매년 최대치 강우자료에 대하여 빈도해석을 실시하였다. 매개변수 추정방법은 모멘트법, 확률가중 모멘트법, 최우도법 등이며, 매개변수 적합성, 도시적 해석, 분리효과, 적합도 검정결과 GEV 분포가 우리 나라 강우자료에 대하여 가장 적합한 확률분포형으로 나타났다. 선정된 GEV 분포형을 모집단의 확률분포형으로 가정하여 재현기간별 확률강우량을 산정하므로써 지역적 해석을 실시하였으며, 정확도 있는 선형화 기법을 통해 회귀분석을 실시하여 확률강두강도식을 유도하였다. 본 연구에서 유도된 확률강우강도식은 실무차원에서 임의 지속기간의 재현기간별 확률강우량을 간편하게 구할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.41-53
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• 2002

This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. According to the regions and consecutive durations, optimal design rainfalls were derived by the regional frequency analysis for L-moment in the second report of this project. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution among applied distributions. regional and at-site parameters of the GEV distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the higher probability weighted moments, LH-moment. Design rainfall using LH-moments following the consecutive duration were derived by the regional and at-site analysis using the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlo techniques. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE), relative bias (RBIAS) and relative reduction (RR) in RRMSE for the design rainfall were computed and compared in the regional and at-site frequency analysis. Consequently, it was shown that the regional analysis can substantially more reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE than at-site analysis in the prediction of design rainfall. Relative efficiency (RE) for an optimal order of L-moments was also computed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution. It was found that the method of L-moments is more effective than the others for getting optimal design rainfall according to the regions and consecutive durations in the regional frequency analysis. Diagrams for the design rainfall derived by the regional frequency analysis using L-moments were drawn according to the regions and consecutive durations by GIS techniques.