• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제9권8호
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• pp.1805-1811
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• 2005

WDM 시스템에서 일반적인 디지털 전송기법인 OOK와 FSK 전송신호를 수신하는 수신기를 해석하였다. 성능평가 방법으로는 다양한 에러확률을 대역폭과 비트수의 함수인 m으로 표현하여 수신기의 성능평가를 수행하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, $10^{-4}$의 에러확률인 m=10 인 경우 OOK 신호에 대한 수신감도는 $1.7{\times}10^2$, FSK의 경우는 $2.2{\times}10^2$, 그리고 $10^{-9}$의 에러확률인 m=25의 경우, OOK와 FSK의 경우 각각 $2.15{\times}10^2$, $3.07{\times}10^2$의 성능을 갖는 것으로 확인되었다. 이를 통해, 광통신 시스템의 기준에러확률인 $10^{-9}$을 기준으로 할 때, 23Gb/S의 전송이 가능함을 보였고, 코딩이득이 $10^{8}$이고, 코드율이 0.8인 경우에는 75Gb/s의 전송용량이 가능함을 확인하였다.

• 한국학교수학회논문집
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.469-483
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• 2018

본 연구는 예비 수학교사들이 학교수학에서 확률과 통계 교수를 위해 어떠한 준비를 해야 하는지를 알아보고 교사교육 개선에 도움을 주고자 함이다. 이를 위해 예비 교사를 대상으로 확률과 통계학 교육과정의 설문과 평가를 실시하고 이들 간의 회귀분석과 상관관계를 조사하였다. 조사를 통해 난이도에 비해 평가 결과가 낮게 나타난 문항을 추출하고 이를 토대로 분석하였다. 그 결과 첫째, 확률과 통계에 대한 중등 학교수학과 대학수학의 내용체계를 연계하여 예비 수학교사들을 지도할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 예비 수학교사들의 확률과 통계 교과목 이해 정도의 정확한 진단이 필요하다. 셋째, 예비 수학교사들이 가진 오개념과 그 원인의 다양함을 알게 되었다. 그리고 이와 관련된 지속적인 후속 연구가 필요하다는 시사점을 도출하였다.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제28권7호
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• pp.668-673
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 최소값 제어 음성 존재 부정확성의 추정기법을 이용한 음성 향상 기법을 제안한다. 기존의 음성 존재 부정확성 추정기법에서는 간단한 a posteriori SNR에 근거하여 프레임, 채널마다 다른 a priori음성 부재 확률값을 결정하여 음성 부재 확률 계산에 적용하였다. 본 논문에서 제안된 알고리즘은 기존 음성 존재 부정확성 추적방법과는 달리 최소값 제어방법을 이용하여 주파수성분별 최소값에 근거한 강인한 a priori음성 부재 확률값 추정방법을 통해 음성 부재 확률에 적용하여 음성을 향상시킨다. 제안된 음성 향상 기법은 ITU-T P.862 perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ)를 이용하여 평가하였고 기존의 음성 존재 부정확성 추적방법보다 향상된 결과를 나타내었다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.467-480
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• 2014

The estimation of wind speed values used in codes and standards is an integral part of the wind load evaluation process. In a number of codes and standards, wind speeds outside of tropical cyclone prone regions are estimated using a single probability distribution developed from observed wind speed data, with no distinction made between the types of causal wind hazard (e.g., thunderstorm). Non-tropical cyclone wind hazards (i.e., thunderstorm, non-thunderstorm) have been shown to possess different probability distributions and estimation of non-tropical cyclone wind speeds based on a single probability distribution has been shown to underestimate wind speeds. Current treatment of non-tropical cyclone wind hazards in worldwide codes and standards is touched upon in this work. Meteorological data is available at a considerable number of United States (U.S.) stations that have information on wind speed as well as the type of causal wind hazard. In this paper, probability distributions are fit to distinct storm types (i.e., thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm) and the results of these distributions are compared to fitting a single probability distribution to all data regardless of storm type (i.e., co-mingled). Distributions fitted to data separated by storm type and co-mingled data will also be compared to a derived (i.e., "mixed") probability distribution considering multiple storm types independently. This paper will analyze two extreme value distributions (e.g., Gumbel, generalized Pareto). It is shown that mixed probability distribution, on average, is a more conservative measure for extreme wind speed estimation. Using a mixed distribution is especially conservative in situations where a given wind speed value for either storm type has a similar probability of occurrence, and/or when a less frequent storm type produces the highest overall wind speeds. U.S. areas prone to multiple non-tropical cyclone wind hazards are identified.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2009

구조물의 지진취약도 분석을 위해서는 평가용 지반응답스펙트럼의 선택이 중요한 영향을 미친다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 설계응답스펙트럼을 이용하여 평가된 전력설비에 대하여 등재해도 스펙트럼을 이용하여 취약도 변수를 치환하는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법을 이용하여 기존의 전력설비를 대상으로 도출된 고신뢰도저파손확률값(HCLPF)을 비교하였으며, 최종적으로 지진재해도 곡선을 이용하여 전력설비에 대한 정량적 지진위험도를 도출하였다. 결과적으로 설계응답스펙트럼을 이용한 지진위험도 평가는 전력설비의 지진위험도를 보수적으로 판단할 수 있는 것으로 평가되었다.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.32-40
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• 2018

Since 2000, the frequency of earthquakes beyond the 5.0 magnitude quake has been increasing in the Korean peninsula. For instance, the 5.0-magnitude earthquake in Baekryong-do in 2003 has occurred, and recent earthquake with Gyeongju(2016) and Pohang(2017) measured respectively magnitude of 5.2 and 5.8 on the Richter scale. As results, the public concern and anxiety about earthquakes are increasing, and therefore it is necessarily required for social infrastructure to reinforce seismic design and energy production facilities directly related to the national economy and security. This study represents the analysis of seismic performance evaluation methodology such as Seismic Margin Assessment (SMA), Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), High Confidence Low Probability Failure (HCLPF) in nuclear power plants in order to develop optimal seismic performance improvement. Current methodologies to evaluate nuclear power plants are also addressed. Through review of the nuclear structure evaluation past and current trend, it contributes to be the basis for the improvement of evaluation techniques on the next generation of nuclear power plants.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권9호
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• pp.5652-5659
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• 2014

소프트웨어를 구성하는 모듈들은 각 모듈에 주어지는 업무들이 동시에 처리될 수 있도록 멀티태스킹이 가능하도록 개발되며, 또한 처리중인 업무들은 완전처리된 업무들과 처리중 모듈고장으로 완전처리 되지 않는 불완전 처리업무로 세분화한다. 이러한 경우 여러 모듈에 동시에 업무가 주어졌을 때, Farlie [11]의 결합확률분포를 기반으로 모듈간의 의존성을 고려하여 업무의 완전처리확률을 평가할 수 있는 모형을 제안하며, 이를 통하여 모듈의존성 모수 값이 커질수록 소프트웨어에 주어진 업무의 완전처리확률은 점점 커짐을 보이고자 한다.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.750-757
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• 2011

Purpose: Cost-benefit analysis is one of the most commonly used economic evaluation methods, which helps to inform the economic value of a program to decision makers. However, the selection of a correct benefit estimation method remains critical for accurate cost-benefit analysis. This paper compared benefit estimations among three different benefit estimation models. Methods: Data from community-based chronic hypertension management programs in a city in South Korea were used. Three different benefit estimation methods were compared. The first was a standard deterministic estimation model; second, a repeated-measures deterministic estimation model; and third, a transitional probability estimation model. Results: The estimated net benefit of the three different methods were $1,273.01, $-3,749.42, and $-5,122.55 respectively. Conclusion: The transitional probability estimation model showed the most correct and realistic benefit estimation, as it traced possible paths of changing status between time points and it accounted for both positive and negative benefits.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권9호
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• pp.384-391
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• 2006

The harmonic currents generated along with the operating speed of electrical railroad traction are very difficult to analyze because of its nonlinear characteristics. This paper therefore presents probabilistic approach for the evaluation of harmonic currents about the operating speed of the arbitrary single traction. To use probabilistic method for railroad system, PDF(Probability Density Function) using measuring data based on the realistic h 따 monic currents per operating speed is calculated. Measuring data of harmonic current per operating speed is obtained using the result data of PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulation based on an IAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport. The means(expected values) and variances of harmonic currents of single traction also are obtained by the PDF of the operating traction speed and harmonic currents. The uncertainty of harmonic currents can be calculated through the mean and variance of PDF. The probability of harmonic currents generated with the operating of arbitrary many tractions is calculated by the convolution of functions. The harmonics of different number of tractions are systematically investigated to assess the TDD(Total Demand Distortion) for the railroad system. The calculation of TDD was carried out using Monte-Carlo Simulations(MSCs) and the results of TDD evaluation of the power quality in the IAT power feeding system.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.