• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.870-875
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• 2013

After introducing diagnosis equipment power failure prevention activities for distribution system have become more active. To do facility diagnosis and maintenance work more efficiently we need to evaluate reliability for the system and should determine the priority line with appropriate criteria. Thus, to calculate risk factor for the power distribution line that are composed of many component facilities its historical failure events for the last 5 years are collected and analysed. The failure statics show that more than 60% of various failures are related to environment factors randomly and about 20% of the failures are refer to the aging. As a strategic evaluation system reflecting these environmental influence is needed, a system on the basis of the probabilistic approach related statical variables in terms of failure rate and failure probability of electrical components is proposed. The figures for the evaluation are derived from the field failure DB. With adopting Bayesian rule we can calculate easily about conditional probability query. The proposed evaluation system is demonstrated with model system and the calculated indices representing the properties of the model line are discussed.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.77-85
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• 2000

The object of this paper is developing of a simulation model for performance evaluation of ai defense-gun system. We developed a three-step kill probability of areal target in case of one gun on one target considering : 1) estimating the target and warhead intercept point, 2) target vulnerability and 3) computing the kill probability. We used a Monte Carlo simulation method. This model can be used for probabilistic analysis giving results of sufficient accuracy with minimum requirement of input data. Also we developed a computer program according proposed algorithm and a set of experimental results using the proposed method are shown.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.1-8
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• 2017

P-PIE is a program developed to estimate failure probability of pipes and pressure vessels considering fatigue and stress corrosion crack growth. Using the program, crack growth simulation was performed with an initially existing crack in order to examine the effects of initial crack depth distribution on the leak probability of pipes. In the simulation stress corrosion crack growth was considered and several crack depth distribution models were used. From the results it was found that the initial crack depth distribution gives great effect on the leak probability of pipes. The log-normal distribution proposed by Khaleel and Simonen gives lower leak probability compared other exponential distribution models. The effects of the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections on the leak probability were also examined and it was recognized that the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections are also give great effect on the leak probability. In order to reduce the leak probability of pipes in plants it is very important to improve the quality of inspections. When in-service inspection is performed every 10 years and the quality of inspection is above the very good level, the leak probability shows nearly constant value after the first inspection for an initially existing crack.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.5 no.6
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• pp.607-613
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• 2007

Eigenstructure assignment provides the advantage of allowing great flexibility in shaping the closed-loop system responses by allowing specification of closed-loop eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors. But, the general eigenstructure assignment methodologies cannot guarantee stability robustness to parameter variations of a system. In this paper, we present a novel method that has the capability of exact assignment of an eigenstructure which can consider the probability of instability for LTI (Linear Time-Invariant) systems. The probability of instability of an LTI system is determined by the probability distributions of the closed-loop eigenvalues. The stability region for the system is made probabilistically based upon the Monte Carlo evaluations. The proposed control design method is applied to design a flight control system with probabilistic parameter variations to confirm the usefulness of the method.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.160-168
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• 1999

This research focussed on developing a hit probability model for polygonal target to increase the survivability of weapon systems by its shape design. First, we defined the delivery errors and derived functions for these errors based on the assumption of bivariate normal distribution, and the derived functions for probability of shot hitting of various shapes of polygonal target. Also, we developed computer program for computation of the probability of hitting a general n-sided polygon and we have shown a sample run output. The model could be used to improve the survivability from design phase by designing optimal polygonal shape of weapon system.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.30 no.7
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• pp.383-389
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a improved speech absence probability estimation algorithm by applying environmental noise classification for speech enhancement. The previous speech absence probability required to seek a priori probability of speech absence was derived by applying microphone input signal and the noise signal based on the estimated value of a posteriori SNR threshold. In this paper, the proposed algorithm estimates the speech absence probability using noise classification algorithm which is based on Gaussian mixture model in order to apply the optimal parameter each noise types, unlike the conventional fixed threshold and smoothing parameter. Performance of the proposed enhancement algorithm is evaluated by ITU-T P.862 PESQ (perceptual evaluation of speech quality) and composite measure under various noise environments. It is verified that the proposed algorithm yields better results compared to the conventional speech absence probability estimation algorithm.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.235-240
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• 2009

Simulation method based on probability was developed to evaluate the durability of reinforced concrete structures about chloride attack. The effects of the probability parameters(surface chloride ion concentration, initial combined chloride ion concentration, the depth of cover thickness of concrete, and the chloride ion diffusion coefficient), probability distribution function and it's variation were calculated using the Monte Carlo method and Fick's 2nd law. From the durability design method proposed in this study, the following results were obtained. 1) The effects of the distance from the coast and the chloride ion diffusion coefficient to the corrosion probability were quite high. 2) The effect of the variation of each parameters was relatively low.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.329-340
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• 2011

The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.81-98
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• 2009

Probability plays a very important role in modern society as an essential tool for solving various kinds of problems from our real life or scientific province. However, most of precedent studies on probability pointed out that many students had difficulties in understanding the nature of it, and that probability teaching method in the classroom is easily led only to calculation system, which is isolated from practical applications. In this paper, I make a close study further onto these themes, by analyzing the 8th grade textbooks through these following questions; how do the textbooks deal with calculation of probability that certain two events occur at the same time? On the practical basis, how do they make use of probability as a problem-solving instrument in both actual life and scientific fields? After these, I try to extract some features and issues of probability teaching method in current Korean textbooks.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.407-414
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• 2010

This paper proposes a probability measure for the evaluation of relay performance from two aspects, namely, correct trip and no-unwanted trip. They are developed based on the relationship between relay settings and relay measurements, which follow a Gaussian probability model. The proposed method based on strict mathematical derivation is applied to protection capability evaluation of distance relays under various settings. Considering the specific attributes of each protection zone, the optimal settings are also determined accordingly. The protection capability could demonstrate clearly the relay performance under various settings and the optimal settings could provide good references for engineering applications.