• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.130-142
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• 2018

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce regression method in the presence of competing risks and to show how you can use the method with hypothetical data. Methods: Survival analysis has been widely used in biostatistics division. But the same method has not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks, where more than a couple of causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not utilized in the area of reliability or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced. In addition, sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function along with some graphs. Lastly we compare cumulative incidence functions with regression type analysis briefly. Results: We used cumulative incidence function to calculate the survival probability or failure probability in the presence of competing risks. We also drew some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime. Conclusion: This research shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime in the presence of competing risks. Cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful in stead. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.331-343
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• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.15-23
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• 2022

One of the key tools in assessing the seismic vulnerability of the structures is the use of fragile functions, which is the possibility of damage from a particular damage surface for several levels of risk from the seismic movements of the earth. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of two categories of earthquake events on the fragile curve (FRC) of the steel construction system. In this study, the relative lateral displacement of the structures is considered as a damage criterion. The limits set for modifying the relative lateral position in the HAZUS instruction are used to determine the failure modes, which include: slight, moderate, extensive and complete. The results show, as time strong-motion increases, the probability of exceeding (PoE) increases (for Peak ground acceleration (PGA) less than 0.5). The increase in seismic demand increases the probability of exceeding. In other words, it increases the probability of exceeding, if the maximum earthquake acceleration increases. Also, 7-storey model in extensive mode has 20 and 26.5% PoE larger than 5- and 3-storey models, respectively.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.99-112
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• 2023

This paper investigates the influences of Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) on the seismic behavior of two-dimensional reinforced concrete moment-resisting frames subjected to Far-Field Ground Motion (FFGM) and Near-Field Ground Motion (NFGM). For this purpose, the nonlinear modeling of 7, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete moment resisting frames were developed in Open Systems for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (OpenSees) software. Effects of SSI were studied by simulating Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) and the soil type as homogenous medium-dense. Generally, the building resistance to seismic loads can be explained in terms of Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA); therefore, IDA curves are presented in this study. For comparison, the fragility evaluation is subjected to NFGM and FFGM as proposed by Quantification of Building Seismic Performance Factors (FEMA P-695). The seismic performance of Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings with fixed and flexible foundations was evaluated to assess the probability of collapse. The results of this paper demonstrate that SSI and NFGM have significantly influenced the probability of failure of the RC frames. In particular, the flexible-base RC buildings experience higher Spectral acceleration (Sa) compared to the fixed-base ones subjected to FFGM and NFGM.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.187-199
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• 2010

This study evaluated applicability and confidence of probability rainfalls estimated by the non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis which was recently developed. Using rainfall data at 4 sites which have an obvious increasing trend in observations, we estimated 3 type probability rainfalls; probability rainfalls from stationary rainfall frequency analysis using data from 1973-1997, probability rainfalls from stationary rainfall frequency analysis using data from 1973-2006, probability rainfalls from non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis assuming that the current year is 1997 and the target year is 2006. Based on the comparison of residuals from 3 probability rainfalls, the non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis provided more effective and well-directed estimates of probability rainfalls in the target year. Using Bootstrap resampling, this study also evaluated the parameter estimation methods for the non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis based on confidence intervals. The confidence interval length estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is narrower than the probability weighted moments (PWM). The results indicated that MLE provides more proper confidence than PWM for non-stationary probability rainfalls.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.143-151
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• 2009

Extreme hydrologic events cause serious disaster, such as flood and drought. Many researchers have an effort to estimate design rainfalls or discharges. This study evaluated parameter estimation methods to estimate probability rainfalls with low uncertainty which will be used in design rainfalls. This study collected rainfall data from Incheon, Gangnueng, Gwangju, Busan, and Chupungryong gage station, and generated synthetic rainfall data using ARMA model. This study employed the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian inference method for estimating parameters of the Gumbel and GEV distribution. Using a bootstrap resampling method, this study estimated the confidence intervals of estimated probability rainfalls. Based on the comparison of the confidence intervals, this study recommended a proper parameter estimation method for estimating probability rainfalls which have a low uncertainty.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.151-160
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• 2005

In case of public transit such as bus system, the probability concept is used to evaluate the Level-of-Service of the operations. And each levels could be classified according to the linear probability value. (TCQSM: Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual-2nd Edition, TRB, Washington DC., 2003) In this case, the drivers or passengers wouldn't think that the service level isn't equivalent to the linear probability value. Thus the linear probability value doesn't exactly reflect the service level. This study shows the problems of using the linear probability value in classifying the service level through the case of evaluation of bus operation's punctuality, presented in TCQSM. To make up for the problems of such case, two methodologies are presented in this study. The method of determining Level-of-Service criteria using probability density of headway variation's distribution, presented in this paper, adequately reflects passenger's expected waiting time. According to the application result to real bus operation data, it tis better than the method of TCQSM to evaluate the reliability of bus operations. However further research about the relations between utility difference and passenger feeling of service level in necessary to apply the method that uses the utility function. It remains as the limitation of this paper.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5A
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• pp.425-431
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• 2010

The phase distribution in a multi-phase material strongly affects its material properties. Therefore, a proper method to describe the phase distribution of a material is needed. In this research, probability distribution functions, two-point correlation and lineal-path functions, are used to represent the probabilistic phase distributions of a material. The probability distribution function is calculated using a numerical method and is described as an analytical form via exponential curve fitting with three parameters. Application of analytical form of probability distribution function is investigated using two-phase polycrystalline solids and soil samples. It is confirmed that the probability distribution functions can be represented as an exponential form using curve fitting which helps identifying the applicability of a representative volume element(RVE).

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.45-65
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• 2010

There has been tighten up the need of seismic retrofit about 31 public facilites since published "Korean Earthquake Damage Prevention Law". Therefore, seismic studies have been developed and enforced the studies. Measuring dynamic stiffness of subsurface materials influence on seismic performance evaluation to build up seismic retrofit. The soil dynamic properties for seismic performance evaluation are N-value from using SPT(standard penetration test), dynamic shear elastic modulus and dynamic deformation modulus using laboratory tests. The most unscientific element in ground dynamic properties involved uncertainties is obviously N-value using SPT. This study shows that effect of N-value included natural and artificial uncertainties to seismic performance evaluation of ground structures is not only approached probabilistic analysis using FOSM method and tornado diagram, but also review how to spread effect of seismic performance evaluation of ground structures.