• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.641-649
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• 2010

Estimation of uncertain parameters is required in many engineering problems which involve probabilistic structural analysis as well as prognosis of existing structures. In this case, Bayesian framework is often employed, which is to represent the uncertainty of parameters in terms of probability distributions conditional on the provided data. The resulting form of distribution, however, is not amenable to the practical application due to its complex nature making the standard probability functions useless. In this study, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed to overcome this difficulty, which is a modern computational technique for the efficient and straightforward estimation of parameters. Three case studies that implement the estimation are presented to illustrate the concept. The first one is an inverse estimation, in which the unknown input parameters are inversely estimated based on a finite number of measured response data. The next one is a metamodel uncertainty problem that arises when the original response function is approximated by a metamodel using a finite set of response values. The last one is a prognostics problem, in which the unknown parameters of the degradation model are estimated based on the monitored data.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.505-523
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• 2006

An unrestrained plane rigid body resting on a horizontal surface which shakes horizontally and vertically may assume one of the five modes of response: rest, slide, slide-rock, rock, and free flight. The first four are nontrivial modes of motion. It is important to study which one of these responses is started from rest as in most studies it is often assumed that the initial mode is the particular mode of response. Criteria governing the initiation of modes are first briefly discussed. It is shown that the commencement of response modes depends on the aspect ratio of the body, coefficients of static and kinetic friction at the body-base interface, and the magnitude of maximum base accelerations. Considering the last two factors as random variables, the initiation of response modes is next studied from a probabilistic point of view. Type 1 extreme value and lognormal distributions are employed for maximum base excitations and coefficient of friction respectively. Analytical expressions for computing the probability values of each mode of response are derived. The effects of slenderness ratio, vertical acceleration, and statistical distributions of maximum acceleration and coefficient of friction are shown through numerical results and plots.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.935-956
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• 2015

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of steel towers has become a hot research topic. From the literature, it is impractical and impossible to develop a "general" method that can detect all kinds of damages for all types of structures. A practical method should make use of the characteristics of the type of structures and the kind of damages. This paper reports a feasibility study on the use of measured modal parameters for the detection of damaged braces of tower structures following the Bayesian probabilistic approach. A substructure-based structural model-updating scheme, which groups different parts of the target structure systematically and is specially designed for tower structures, is developed to identify the stiffness distributions of the target structure under the undamaged and possibly damaged conditions. By comparing the identified stiffness distributions, the damage locations and the corresponding damage extents can be detected. By following the Bayesian theory, the probability model of the uncertain parameters is derived. The most probable model of the steel tower can be obtained by maximizing the probability density function (PDF) of the model parameters. Experimental case studies were employed to verify the proposed method. The contributions of this paper are not only on the proposal of the substructure-based Bayesian model updating method but also on the verification of the proposed methodology through measured data from a scale model of transmission tower under laboratory conditions.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.16-21
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• 2007

Along with the opening of the high speed railroad in 2004, the number of long tunnels constructed is increasing and will be continued. In this respect, the fro inside the tunnels is a main cause of drastic damages to both facilities and lives of passengers on board, especially more severe consequences are expected if the fire occurs on a train in urban area. Even though, the threat to human lives due to the increasing number of tong tunnels and increasing train operation times inside such tunnels is getting bigger, the studies to measure safety of the tunnel and to enhance the safety of passengers have not been carried out enough in Korea. Therefore, in this paper, we will use the probabilistic method to predict the average number of deaths of passengers in case of fire on a train iii tunnel, and show the potential risk to passengers which can be a guide for safer design of tunnels to be constructed.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.737-744
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• 2018

RSA 암호계는 가장 널리 쓰이는 공개키 암호계로서, 암호화뿐만 아니라 전자서명이 가능한 최초의 알고리즘으로 알려져 있다. RSA 암호계의 안정성은 큰 수를 소인수 분해하는 것이 어렵다는 것에 기반을 두고 있다. 이러한 이유로 큰 정수의 소인수분해 방법에 많은 연구가 진행되고 있으나, 지금까지 알려진 연구 결과는 모두 실험적이거나 확률적이다. 본 논문에서는, 복소 이차체의 order의 류 반군의 구조와 비 가역 이데알의 성질을 이용하여 인수분해를 하지 않으면서 큰 정수의 소인수를 구하는 알고리즘을 구성한 다음, RSA 암호계에 대한 결정적 공격법을 제안하기로 한다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.433-455
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• 2013

A phase delay spectrum model towards the representation of spatial coherence of stochastic wind fields is proposed. Different from the classical coherence functions used in the spectral representation methods, the model is derived from the comprehensive description of coherence of fluctuating wind speeds and from the thorough analysis of physical accounts of random factors affecting phase delay, building up a consistent mapping between the simulated fluctuating wind speeds and the basic random variables. It thus includes complete probabilistic information of spatial stochastic wind fields. This treatment prompts a ready and succinct scheme for the simulation of fluctuating wind speeds, and provides a new perspective to the accurate assessment of dynamic reliability of wind-induced structures. Numerical investigations and comparative studies indicate that the developed model is of rationality and of applicability which matches well with the measured data at spatial points of wind fields, whereby the phase spectra at defined datum mark and objective point are feasibly obtained using the numerical scheme associated with the starting-time of phase evolution. In conjunction with the stochastic Fourier amplitude spectrum that we developed previously, the time history of fluctuating wind speeds at any spatial points of wind fields can be readily simulated.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 제38회 하계학술대회
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• pp.578-579
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• 2007

The importance and necessity of conducting studies on area outage cost assessment have been increasingly important in recent years due to the competitive electricity market environment. The objective of operational issues would be to minimize the total area cost while satisfying all associated system constrains of each area[2]. This paper presents a methodology of the Area annual outage cost assessment by probabilistic reliability evaluation using TRELSS program for KEPCO system. The interrupted energy assessment rate (IEAR) is evaluated by macro approach that is using relations between GRDP and the electrical energy demand. The Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) of each area was evaluated using the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems (TRELSS) Version 6_2, a program developed by EPRI are introduced in this paper.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제29권8호
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• pp.83-89
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• 2015

This study suggests the methodology to decide the number and adequate capacity of substation transformer in a large-scale offshore wind farm (OWF). The recent trend in transformer capacity of offshore substation is analyzed in many European offshore wind farm sites prior to entering the studies. In order to carry out the economic evaluation for the transformer capacity we present the cost models which consist of investment, operation, and expected energy not supplied (EENS) cost as well as the probabilistic wind power model of wind energy that combines the wind speed with wind turbine output characteristics for a exact calculation of energy loss cost. Economic assessment includes sensitivity analysis of parameters which could impact the 400-MW OWF: average wind speed, availability, discount rate, energy cost, and life-cycle.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.457-468
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• 2017

When studying the vibration of a suspension bridge based on the traffic-bridge coupled system, most researchers ignored the contribution of the pavement response. For example, the pavement was simplified as a rigid base and the deformation of pavement was ignored. However, the action of deck pavement on the vibration of vehicles or bridges should not be neglected. This study is mainly focused on establishing a new methodology fully considering the effects of bridge deck pavement, probabilistic traffic flows, and varied road roughness conditions. The bridge deck pavement was modeled as a boundless Euler-Bernoulli beam supported on the Kelvin model; the typical traffic flows were simulated by the improved Cellular Automaton (CA) traffic flow model; and the traffic-pavement-bridge coupled equations were established by combining the equations of motion of the vehicles, pavement, and bridge using the displacement and interaction force relationship at the contact locations. The numerical studies show that the proposed method can more rationally simulate the effect of the pavement on the vibrations of bridge and vehicles.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.491-506
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• 2019

Literature regarding concrete walls reinforced by super elastic shape memory alloy (SMA) bars is rather limited. The seismic behavior of a system concurrently including a distinct steel reinforced concrete (RC) wall, as well as another wall reinforced by super elastic SMA at the first story, and steel rebar at upper stories, would be an interesting matter. In this paper, the seismic response of such a COMBINED system is compared to a conventional system with steel RC concrete walls (STEEL-Rein.) and also to a wall system with SMA rebar at the first story and steel rebar at other stories ( SMA-Rein.). Nonlinear time history analysis at maximum considered earthquake (MCE) and design bases earthquake (DBE) levels is conducted and the main responses like maximum inter-story drift ratio and residual inter-story drift ratio are investigated. Furthermore, incremental dynamic analysis is used to accomplish probabilistic seismic studies by creating fragility curves. Results demonstrated that the SMA-Rein. system, subjected to DBE and MCE ground motions, has almost zero and 0.27% residual maximum inter-story drifts, while the values for the COMBINED system are 0.25% and 0.51%. Furthermore, fragility curves show that using SMA rebar at the base of all walls causes a larger probability of exceedance 3% inter-story drift limit state compared to the COMBINED system. Static push over analysis demonstrated that the strength of the COMBINED model is almost 0.35% larger than that of the two other models, and its general post-yielding stiffness is also approximately twice the corresponding stiffness of the two other models.