• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic studies

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Probabilistic Fatigue Life Evaluation of Steel Railway Bridges according to Live-Dead Loads Ratio (강철도교의 활하중-사하중 비에 따른 확률기반 피로수명 평가)

  • Lee, Sangmok;Lee, Young-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.339-346
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    • 2019
  • Various studies have been conducted to evaluate the probabilistic fatigue life of steel railway bridges, but many of them are based on a relatively simple model of crack propagation. The model assumes zero minimum stress and constant loading amplitude, which is not appropriate for the fatigue life evaluation of railway bridges. Thus, this study proposes a new probabilistic method employing an advanced crack propagation model that considers the live-dead load ratio for the fatigue life evaluation of steel railway bridges. In addition, by using the rainflow cycle counting algorithm, it can handle variable-amplitude loading, which is the most common loading pattern for railway bridges. To demonstrate the proposed method, it was applied to a numerical example of a steel railway bridge, and the fatigue lives of the major components and structural system were estimated. Furthermore, the effects of various ratios of live-dead loads on bridge fatigue life were examined through a parametric study. As a result, with the increasing live-dead stress ratio from 0 to 5/6, the fatigue lives can be reduced by approximately 30 years at both the component and system levels.

Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of KEPCO System using TRELSS - V (TRELSS를 이용한 우리나라의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가에 관한 연구 - V)

  • Jeon D.;Kim T.;Cha S.;Choo J.;Tran T.;Lee S.;Choi J.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.11-14
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    • 2004
  • In recent, the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid comes from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. The quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important under competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. This paper introduces features and operation modes of the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 6.2, a program made in EPRI, for assessing reliability indices of composite power system. The package accesses not only bulk but also buses indices for reliability evaluation of composite powers system. The characteristics of the TRELSS program are illustrated by the case studies using the KEPCO system

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Effect of Uncertain N-values to Seismic Performance Evaluation of Underground Structures (불확실한 지반의 N값이 지중구조물의 내진성능평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Ji-hwan;Lee, Tea-hyung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.45-65
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    • 2010
  • There has been tighten up the need of seismic retrofit about 31 public facilites since published "Korean Earthquake Damage Prevention Law". Therefore, seismic studies have been developed and enforced the studies. Measuring dynamic stiffness of subsurface materials influence on seismic performance evaluation to build up seismic retrofit. The soil dynamic properties for seismic performance evaluation are N-value from using SPT(standard penetration test), dynamic shear elastic modulus and dynamic deformation modulus using laboratory tests. The most unscientific element in ground dynamic properties involved uncertainties is obviously N-value using SPT. This study shows that effect of N-value included natural and artificial uncertainties to seismic performance evaluation of ground structures is not only approached probabilistic analysis using FOSM method and tornado diagram, but also review how to spread effect of seismic performance evaluation of ground structures.

A Basic Study on Financial Analysis Model Development by Applying Optimization Method in Residential Officetel. (최적화 기법을 활용한 주거형 오피스텔 프로젝트 수지 분석 모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Jang, Junho;Kim, Kyeong Ryoung;Ha, sungeun;Son, Kiyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.159-160
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    • 2018
  • The domestic construction industry is changing its preference for demand and supply along with urbanization and economic development. Accordingly, initial risk assessments is more important than before. Currently, the research related to risk analysis except for apartment studies is insufficient. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on financial analysis model development by applying optimization method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective. first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the financial model is developed by using optimization method. In the future, the proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

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Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Power System using TRELSS I (TRELSS를 이용한 전력계통의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가 I)

  • Kang, Sung-Rok;Tran, Tungtinh;Choi, Jae-Sok;Jeon, Dong-Hoon;Moon, Seung-Pil;Choo, Jin-Boo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.62-66
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    • 2003
  • In recent, the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid comes from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. The quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important under competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. This paper introduces features and operation modes of the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 5_1, a program made in EPRI, for assessing reliability indices of composite power system. The package accesses not only bulk but also buses indices for reliability evaluation of composite powers system. The characteristics of the TRELSS program are illustrated by the case studies using the IEEE 25buses system.

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Preliminary analyses on decontamination factors during pool scrubbing with bubble size distributions obtained from EPRI experiments

  • Lee, Yoonhee;Cho, Yong Jin;Ryu, Inchul
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.509-521
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, from a review of the size distribution of the bubbles during pool scrubbing obtained from experiments by EPRI, we apply the bubble size distributions to analyses on the decontamination factors of pool scrubbing via I-COSTA (In-Containment Source Term Analysis). We perform sensitivity studies of the bubble size on the various mechanisms of deposition of aerosol particles in pool scrubbing. We also perform sensitivity studies on the size distributions of the bubbles depending on the diameters at the nozzle exit, the molecular weights of non-condensable gases in the carrier gases, and the steam fractions of the carrier gases. We then perform analyses of LACE-ESPANA experiments and compare the numerical ~ results to those from SPARC-90 and experimental results in order to show the effect of the bubble size distributions.

Who knows what and to what extent - modeling the knowledge of the narrative agent

  • Hochang Kwon
    • Trans-
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    • v.14
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    • pp.65-92
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    • 2023
  • The knowledge of the narrative agent not only constitutes the content and meaning of the narrative itself, but is also closely related to the emotional response of the recipient. Also, the disparity of knowledge between narrative agents is an important factor in making a narrative richer and more interesting. But It tends to be treated as a sub-topic of narration theory or genre/style studies rather than an independent subject of narrative studies or criticism. In this paper, I propose a model that can systematically and quantitatively analyze the knowledge of narrative agents. The proposed model consists of the knowledge structure that represents a narrative, the knowledge state that expresses the knowledge of narrative agent as a degree of belief, and the knowledge flow that means changes in the knowledge state according to the development of events. In addition, the formal notation of the knowledge structure and a probabilistic inference model that could obtain the state of knowledge were proposed, and the knowledge structure and knowledge flow were analyzed by applying the model to the actual narrative. It is expected that the proposed model will be of practical help in the creation and evaluation of narratives.

Tag Number Estimation Scheme for Dynamic Frame Size Allocation (동적 프레임 크기 할당을 위한 태그 수 추정 기법)

  • Lim, In-Taek;Choi, Jin-Oh;Kim, Su-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.756-758
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    • 2010
  • Fixed frame size is used in the RFID system with the frame-based slot ALOHA algorithm. Therefore, it is anticipated that the tag identification performances will highly depend on the number of tags within the reader's identification range and the frame size. In this paper, we propose a tag number estimation scheme and analyze the performance with the computer simulations. The proposed scheme is based on the status of slots that the tags respond during a query round as well as the probabilistic calculations.

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Application of GIS-based Probabilistic Empirical and Parametric Models for Landslide Susceptibility Analysis (산사태 취약성 분석을 위한 GIS 기반 확률론적 추정 모델과 모수적 모델의 적용)

  • Park, No-Wook;Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2005
  • Traditional GIS-based probabilistic spatial data integration models for landslide susceptibility analysis have failed to provide the theoretical backgrounds and effective methods for integration of different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. This paper applies two spatial data integration models including non-parametric empirical estimation and parametric predictive discriminant analysis models that can directly use the original continuous data within a likelihood ratio framework. Similarity rates and a prediction rate curve are computed to quantitatively compare those two models. To illustrate the proposed models, two case studies from the Jangheung and Boeun areas were carried out and analyzed. As a result of the Jangheung case study, two models showed similar prediction capabilities. On the other hand, in the Boeun area, the parametric predictive discriminant analysis model showed the better prediction capability than that from the non-parametric empirical estimation model. In conclusion, the proposed models could effectively integrate the continuous data for landslide susceptibility analysis and more case studies should be carried out to support the results from the case studies, since each model has a distinctive feature in continuous data representation.

Methodology for Reliability-based Assessment of Capacity-Rating of Plate Girder Railroad Bridges using Ambient Measurement Data (상시 계측 데이터를 이용한 신뢰성에 기초한 판형 철도교의 내하력 평가법)

  • Cho, Hyo Nam;Choi, Hyun Ho;Lee, Sang Yoon;Sun, Jong Wan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.187-196
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    • 2003
  • Today, the Working Stress Rating (WSR) is being widely used for the capacity-rating and the safety assessment of railroad steel bridges. Since it cannot incorporate the uncertainties, several studies have been carried out in order to get over the incompleteness of the conventional capacity-rating and safety assessment. A system reliability-based equivalent capacity-rating method, which can evaluate the capacity of existing bridges, has been recently proposed. For more efficient reliability analysis, probabilistic parameters of the random variables in the limit-state models should be reasonably evaluated. Especially, uncertainties for live load effects must be realistically included. In this study, an improved limit-state model was used for the system reliability-based equivalent strength method. This model can incorporate the probabilistic parameters obtained from ambient measurement data. To demonstrate the applicability of the improved system reliability-based equivalent capacity rating method, this was applied to the existing steel plate girder bridge for comparison with the conventional capacity-rating and safety assessment.