• 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.41-48
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• 2018

Carbonation is one of the major detrimental factors to the reinforced concrete structures owing to penetration of atmospheric CO2 through the micro pores, thereby it reduces the durability of the concrete. The maintenance periods and cost for concrete according to the coefficient variation of different finishing materials is documented in literature. However, it is required to carry out the systematic and well planned studies. Therefore, keeping them in mind, surface repair was carried out to the carbonated concrete and the maintenance cost was calculated to measure the durability life after repair with different variable. The deterministic and probabilistic methods were applied for durability and repair cost of the concrete. In the existing deterministic model, the cost of repair materials increases significantly when the concrete structure reaches its service life. In present study using a stochastic model, the maintenance period and cost was evaluated. According to obtained results, there was no significant difference in the number of maintenance of the coefficient variation. The initial durability has a great influence on the maintenance time and cost of the structure. Unlike the deterministic model, the probabilistic cost estimating model reduces the number of maintenance to the target service life expectancy.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권8호
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• pp.2259-2277
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• 2023

We propose a probabilistic fish growth model for smart aquaculture systems equipped with IoT sensors that monitor the ecological environment. As IoT sensors permeate into smart aquaculture systems, environmental data such as oxygen level and temperature are collected frequently and automatically. However, there still exists data on fish weight, tank allocation, and other factors that are collected less frequently and manually by human workers due to technological limitations. Unlike sensor data, human-collected data are hard to obtain and are prone to poor quality due to missing data and reading errors. In a situation where different types of data are mixed, it becomes challenging to develop an effective fish growth model. This study explores the unique characteristics of such a combined environmental and weight dataset. To address these characteristics, we develop a preprocessing method and a probabilistic fish growth model using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) and overlapping mixtures of Gaussian processes (OMGP). We modify the OMGP to be applicable to prediction by setting a proper prior distribution that utilizes the characteristic that the ratio of fish groups does not significantly change as they grow. We conduct a numerical study using the eel dataset collected from a real smart aquaculture system, which reveals the promising performance of our model.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.107-115
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• 1991

지진예측을 위한 확률론적퍼지모형을 제안하였다. 제안된 모형은 지진발생에 대하여 무작위성(randomness)과 퍼지니스(fuzziness)를 같이 사용하여, 기존의 확률론에 근거한 지진예측방법을 개선할 수 있도록 하였다. 이 연구의 결과는 (a) 주어진 초과확률에 대한 지반가속도 또는 주어진 지반가속도에 대한 초과확률의 멤버쉽함수와 (b) 멤버쉽함수를 대표할 수 있는 특성값(characteristic value)이다. 확률론적 퍼지모형을 미국 Utah주의 Wasatch Front Range의 자료에 적용하여 서로 다른 연간 초과확률, 최대지반가속도에 대하여 지진도를 작성하였다.

• 말소리와 음성과학
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.85-94
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• 2017

Conventional speaker verification systems using time delay neural network, identity vector and probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (TDNN-Ivector-PLDA) are known to be very effective for verifying long-duration speech utterances. However, when test utterances are of short duration, duration mismatch between enrollment and test utterances significantly degrades the performance of TDNN-Ivector-PLDA systems. To compensate for the I-vector mismatch between long and short utterances, this paper proposes to use probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) model adaptation with augmented data. A PLDA model is trained on vast amount of speech data, most of which have long duration. Then, the PLDA model is adapted with the I-vectors obtained from short-utterance data which are augmented by using vocal tract length perturbation (VTLP). In computer experiments using the NIST SRE 2008 database, the proposed method is shown to achieve significantly better performance than the conventional TDNN-Ivector-PLDA systems when there exists duration mismatch between enrollment and test utterances.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.109-118
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• 2004

Life cycle assessment (LCA) usually involves some uncertainty. These uncertainties are generally divided in two categories such lack of data and data inaccuracy in life cycle inventory (LCI). This paper explo.es a methodology on dealing with uncertainty due to lack of data in LCI. In order to treat uncertainty of LCI data, a model for data uncertainty is proposed. The model works with probabilistic curves as inputs and with Monte Carlo Simulation techniques to propagate uncertainty. The probabilistic curves were derived from the results of survey in expert network and Monte Carlo Simulation was performed using the derived probabilistic curves. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation were verified by statistical test. The proposed approach should serve as a guide to improve data quality and deal with uncertainty of LCI data in LCA projects.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권4호
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• pp.700-707
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• 2009

The application of renewable energy in electric power systems is growing rapidly in order to make provision for the inequality of the climate, the dwindling supplies of coal, oil and natural gas and a further rise in oil prices. Solar cell generators(SCG) is one of the fastest growing renewable energy. This paper presents a methodology on probabilistic production cost simulation of a power system including SCGs. The generated power by SCGs is variable due to the random variation of solar radiation. In order to solve this problem, the SCGs is modeled as multi-state operational model in this paper. Probabilistic production cost of a power system can be calculated by proposed method considering SCGs with multi-state. The results show that the impacts of SCGs added to a power system can be analyzed in view point of production cost using the proposed method.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.751-767
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• 2015

A new procedure is proposed for assessing probabilistic condition of structures considering effect of measured data uncertainty. In this procedure, multiple Finite Element (FE) models are identified by using weighting vectors that represent the uncertainty conditions of measured data. The distribution of structural parameters is analysed using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in relation to uncertainty conditions, and the identified models are classified into groups according to their similarity by using a K-means method. The condition of a structure is then assessed probabilistically using FE models in the classified groups, each of which represents specific uncertainty condition of measured data. Yeondae bridge, a steel-box girder expressway bridge in Korea, is used as an illustrative example. Probabilistic condition of the bridge is evaluated by the distribution of load rating factors obtained using multiple FE models. The numerical example shows that the proposed method can quantify uncertainty of measured data and subsequently evaluate efficiently the probabilistic condition of bridges.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.11-15
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• 1986

In this paper, we consider the validity of a human probabilistic learning model applied to the perdiction of errors associated with the absolute identification of tones. It is shown that the probabilistic learning model describes the human error process adequately. The model parameters are estimated by two methods which are the method of maximum likelihood, and the method of mement. The MLE version of the model has the better predictive power but the ME version is more readily obtainable and may be more practical.

• 정보과학회 컴퓨팅의 실제 논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.119-126
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• 2016

본 논문에서는 어절 단위의 기분석 사전과 음절 단위의 확률 모델을 이용하는 한국어 형태소 분석기가 실용성이 있는지를 검증한다. 이를 위해 기존의 한국어 형태소 분석기 MACH와 KLT2000을 복제하고, 복제된 형태소 분석기의 분석 결과가 MACH와 KLT2000 분석 결과와 얼마나 유사한지 정밀도와 재현율로 평가하는 실험을 하였다. 실험은 1,000만 어절 규모의 세종 말뭉치를 10개의 세트로 나누고 10배수 교차 검증을 하는 방식으로 하였다. MACH의 분석 결과를 정답 집합으로 하고 MACH 복제품의 분석 결과를 평가한 결과 정밀도와 재현율이 각각 97.16%와 98.31%였으며, KLT2000 복제품의 경우에는 정밀도와 재현율이 각각 96.80%와 99.03%였다 분석 속도는 MACH 복제품의 경우 초당 30.8만 어절이며, KLT2000 복제품은 초당 43.6만 어절로 나타났다. 이 실험 결과는 어절 단위의 기분석 사전과 음절 단위의 확률 모델로 만든 한국어 형태소 분석기가 실제 응용에 사용될 수 있을 정도의 성능을 가진다는 것을 보여준다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2020

The probabilistic bearing capacity of a strip footing placed on the edge of a purely cohesive reinforced soil slope is computed by combining lower bound finite element limit analysis technique with random field method and Monte Carlo simulation technique. To simulate actual field condition, anisotropic random field model of undrained soil shear strength is generated by using the Cholesky-Decomposition method. With the inclusion of a single layer of reinforcement, dimensionless bearing capacity factor, N always increases in both deterministic and probabilistic analysis. As the coefficient of variation of the undrained soil shear strength increases, the mean N value in both unreinforced and reinforced slopes reduces for particular values of correlation length in horizontal and vertical directions. For smaller correlation lengths, the mean N value of unreinforced and reinforced slopes is always lower than the deterministic solutions. However, with the increment in the correlation lengths, this difference reduces and at a higher correlation length, both the deterministic and probabilistic mean values become almost equal. Providing reinforcement under footing subjected to eccentric load is found to be an efficient solution. However, both the deterministic and probabilistic bearing capacity for unreinforced and reinforced slopes reduces with the consideration of loading eccentricity.