• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic damage

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The Effects of Seismic Failure Correlations on the Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessments of Nuclear Power Plants (지진 손상 상관성이 플랜트의 확률론적 지진 안전성 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Eem, Seunghyun;Kwag, Shinyoung;Choi, In-Kil;Jeon, Bub-Gyu;Park, Dong-Uk
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear power plant's safety against seismic events is evaluated as risk values by probabilistic seismic safety assessment. The risk values vary by the seismic failure correlation between the structures, systems, and components (SSCs). However, most probabilistic seismic safety assessments idealized the seismic failure correlation between the SSCs as entirely dependent or independent. Such a consideration results in an inaccurate assessment result not reflecting real physical phenomenon. A nuclear power plant's seismic risk should be calculated with the appropriate seismic failure correlation coefficient between the SSCs for a reasonable outcome. An accident scenario that has an enormous impact on a nuclear power plant's seismic risk was selected. Moreover, the probabilistic seismic response analyses of a nuclear power plant were performed to derive appropriate seismic failure correlations between SSCs. Based on the analysis results, the seismic failure correlation coefficient between SSCs was derived, and the seismic fragility curve and core damage frequency of the loss of essential power event were calculated. Results were compared with the seismic fragility and core damage frequency of assuming the seismic failure correlations between SSCs were independent and entirely dependent.

Influence Analysis of Seismic Risk due to the Failure Correlation in Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (다중기기 손상 상관성에 의한 지진리스크 영향 분석)

  • Eem, Seung-Hyun;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2019
  • The seismic safety of nuclear power plants has always been emphasized by the effects of accidents. In general, the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plants carries out a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. The current probabilistic safety assessment assumes that damage to the structure, system, and components (SSCs) occurs independently to each other or perfect dependently to each other. In case of earthquake events, the failure event occurs with the correlation due to the correlation between the seismic response of the SSCs and the seismic performance of the SSCs. In this study, the EEMS (External Event Mensuration System) code is developed which can perform the seismic probabilistic safety assessment considering correlation. The developed code is verified by comparing with the multiplier n, which is for calculating the joint probability of failure, which is proposed by Mankamo. It is analyzed the changes in seismic fragility curves and seismic risks with correlation. As a result, it was confirmed that the seismic fragility curves and seismic risk change according to the failure correlation coefficient. This means that it is important to select an appropriate failure correlation coefficient in order to perform a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. And also, it was confirmed that carrying out the seismic probabilistic safety assessment in consideration of the seismic correlation provides more realistic results, rather than providing conservative or non-conservative results comparing with that damage to the SSCs occurs independently.

A probabilistic analysis of Miner's law for different loading conditions

  • Blason, Sergio;Correia, Jose A.F.O.;Jesus, Abilio M.P. De;Calcada, Rui A.B.;Fernandez-Canteli, Alfonso
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.71-90
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, the normalized variable V=(log N-B)(log ${\Delta}{\sigma}-C$-C), as derived from the probabilistic S-N field of Castillo and Canteli, is taken as a reference for calculation of damage accumulation and probability of failure using the Miner number in scenarios of variable amplitude loading. Alternative damage measures, such as the classical Miner and logarithmic Miner, are also considered for comparison between theoretical lifetime prediction and experimental data. The suitability of this approach is confirmed for it provides safe lifetime prediction when applied to fatigue data obtained for riveted joints made of a puddle iron original from the Fao bridge, as well as for data from experimental programs published elsewhere carried out for different materials (aluminium and concrete specimens) under distinct variable loading histories.

Development of an Accident Sequence Precursor Methodology and its Application to Significant Accident Precursors

  • Jang, Seunghyun;Park, Sunghyun;Jae, Moosung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.313-326
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    • 2017
  • The systematic management of plant risk is crucial for enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants and for designing new nuclear power plants. Accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis may be able to provide risk significance of operational experience by using probabilistic risk assessment to evaluate an operational event quantitatively in terms of its impact on core damage. In this study, an ASP methodology for two operation mode, full power and low power/shutdown operation, has been developed and applied to significant accident precursors that may occur during the operation of nuclear power plants. Two operational events, loss of feedwater and steam generator tube rupture, are identified as ASPs. Therefore, the ASP methodology developed in this study may contribute to identifying plant risk significance as well as to enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants by applying this methodology systematically.

Two-step approaches for effective bridge health monitoring

  • Lee, Jong Jae;Yun, Chung Bang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.75-95
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    • 2006
  • Two-step identification approaches for effective bridge health monitoring are proposed to alleviate the issues associated with many unknown parameters faced in real structures and to improve the accuracy in the estimate results. It is suitable for on-line monitoring scheme, since the damage assessment is not always needed to be carried out whereas the alarming for damages is to be continuously monitored. In the first step for screening potentially damaged members, a damage indicator method based on modal strain energy, probabilistic neural networks and the conventional neural networks using grouping technique are utilized and then the conventional neural networks technique is utilized for damage assessment on the screened members in the second step. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is investigated through a field test on the northern-most span of the old Hannam Grand Bridge over the Han River in Seoul, Korea.

Assessment of the Effect of Probabilistic Modeling of Sea-States in Fatigue Damage Calculations

  • FolsØ, Rasmus;Dogliani, Mario
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1999
  • Spectral fatigue damage calculations has been performed on four ships in order to assess the effect that the probabilistic modeling of sea states has on the estimated fatigue life. The damage estimation method is based on the Miner- Palmgren fatigue damage formulation and a spectral approach is used to determine the necessary variances of the stress processes. Both the horizontal and vertical hull girder bending induced stress process together with the local water pressure induced stress process is taken into account. The wave scatter diagrams are applied in the calculations and their fatigue severity is assessed by analyzing the results obtained with the ten scatter diagrams and the four ships. All four ships are analyzed both in full load and ballast conditions and while traveling at both full and reduced speed. It is found that the fatigue severity of a wave scatter diagram is dependent on several parameters, some of these being the extreme wave hight extrapolated from the scatter diagram and the mean zero up-crossing period in conjunction with the ship length . Based on these three parameters and expression is derived in order to calculate one single number describing the fatigue severity of a scatter diagram with respect to a certain ship.

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Probabilistic Model of Service Life to Evaluate Damage Tolerance of Composite Structure (복합재 항공구조물의 손상허용평가를 위한 운항수명의 확률적 모델)

  • A.스튜어트;A.우샤코프;심재열;황인희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.245-248
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    • 2000
  • Modern aircraft composite structures are designed using a damage tolerance philosophy. This design philosophy envisions sufficient strength and structural integrity of the aircraft to sustain major damage and to avoid catastrophic failure. The only reasonable way to treat on the same basis all the conditions and uncertainties participating in the design of damage tolerant composite aircraft structures is to use the probability-based approach. Therefore, the model has been developed to assess the probability of structural failure (POSF) and associated risk taking into account the random mechanical loads, random temperature-humidity conditions, conditions causing damages, as well as structural strength variations due to intrinsic strength scatter, manufacturing defects, operational damages, temperature-humidity conditions. The model enables engineers to establish the relationship between static/residual strength safety margins, production quality control requirements, in-service inspection resolution and criteria, and POSF. This make possible to estimate the cost associated with the mentioned factors and to use this cost as overall criterion. The methodology has been programmed into software.

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Quantitative evaluation of through-thickness rectangular notch in metal plates based on lamb waves

  • Zhao, Na;Wu, Bin;Liu, Xiucheng;Ding, Keqin;Hu, Yanan;Bayat, Mahmoud
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.71 no.6
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    • pp.751-761
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    • 2019
  • Lamb wave technology is a promising technology in the field of structural health monitoring and can be applied in the detection and monitoring of defects in plate structures. Based on the reconstruction algorithm for the probabilistic inspection of damage (RAPID), a Lamb-based detection and evaluation method of through-thickness rectangular notches in metal plates was proposed in this study. The influences of through-thickness rectangular notch length and the angle between sensing path and notch length direction on signals were further explored through simulations and experiments. Then a damage index calculation method which focuses on both phase and amplitude difference between detected signals and baseline signals was proposed. Based on the damage index difference between two vertically crossed sensing paths which pass through the notch in a sensor network, the notch direction identification method was proposed. In addition, the notch length was determined based on the damage index distribution along sensing paths. The experimental results showed that the image reconstructed with the proposed method could reflect the information for the evaluation of notches.

Probabilistic analysis of a partially-restrained steel-concrete composite frame

  • Amadio, C.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2008
  • The paper investigates the seismic performance of a Partially-Restrained (PR) steel-concrete composite frame using the probabilistic approach. The analysed frame was tested at the ELSA laboratory of the Joint Research Centre of Ispra (Italy), while the representative beam-to-column composite connections were tested at the Universities of Pisa, Milan and Trento (Italy). The component modelling of both interior and exterior composite joints is described first, including the experimental-numerical validation. The Latin Hypercube method has been used to draw the probabilistic distribution curves of joints, and then the whole PR composite frame has been analysed. Pushover and incremental dynamic analyses have been carried out using the non-linear FE code SAP2000 version 9.1. The fragility and performance curves of the PR composite frame have been determined for four damage limit states.

A Study on the Final Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the Jordan Research and Training Reactor (JRTR 연구용원자로에 대한 최종 확률론적 안전성평가)

  • Lee, Yoon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.86-95
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    • 2020
  • This paper describes the work and the results of the final Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the Jordan Research and Training Reactor (JRTR). This final PSA was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA described here is a Level 1 PSA, which addresses the risks associated with core damage. After reviewing the documents and its conceptual design, nine typical initiating events were selected regarding internal events during the normal operation of the reactor. AIMS-PSA (Version 1.2c) was used for the accident quantification, and FTREX was used as the quantification engine. 1.0E-15/yr of the cutoff value was used to deliminate the non-effective Minimal Cut Sets (MCSs) when quantifying the JRTR PSA model. As a result, the final result indicates a point estimate of 2.02E-07/yr for the overall Core Damage Frequency (CDF) attributable to internal initiating events in the core damage state for the JRTR. A Loss of Primary Cooling System Flow (LOPCS) is the dominant contributor to the total CDF by a single initiating event (9.96E-08/yr), and provides 49.4% of the CDF. General Transients (GTRNs) are the second largest contributor, and provide 32.9% (6.65E-08/yr) of the CDF.