• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.59-71
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• 2009

Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.667-673
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• 2010

Recently, structures are becoming longer and higher because of the developments of new materials and construction techniques. However, such modern structures are more susceptible to excessive structural vibrations which cause deterioration in serviceability and structural safety. A modified probabilistic neural network(MPNN) approach is proposed to reduce the structural vibration. In this study, the global probability density function(PDF) of MPNN is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs automatically determined in the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed algorithm is applied for the vibration control of a three-story shear building model under Northridge earthquake. When the control results of the MPNN are compared with those of conventional PNN to verify the control performance, the MPNN controller proves to be more effective than PNN methods in decreasing the structural responses.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose a reliability evaluation method considering the momentary interruptions of power distribution systems. The results of research are concentrated on two parts. One is the analytic and probabilistic reliability evaluation of power distribution system considering the momentary interruptions and the other is the reliability cost evaluation that unifies the cost of sustained and momentary interruptions. This proposed reliability cost evaluation methodology is also divided into the analytic and probabilistic approach and the time sequential Monte Carlo method is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS (Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed reliability evaluation and its cost/worth assessment methodologies can be applied to the actual reliability studies.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.30-38
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• 1996

A two dimensional analysis program for groundwater flow in fractured network was developed to analyze the influence of discontinuity characteristics on groundwater flow. This program involves the generation of discontinuities and also connectivity analysis. The discontinuities were generated by the probabilistic density function(P.D.F.) reflecting the characteristics of discontinuities. And the fracture network model was completed through the connectivity analysis. This program also involves the analysis of groundwater flow through the discontinuity network. The result of numerical experiment shows that the equivalent hydraulic conductivity increased and became closer to isotropic as the density and trace length increased. And hydraulic head decreased along the fracture zone because of much water-flow. The grouting increased the groundwater head around cavern. An analysis of groundwater flow through discontinuity network was performed around underground oil storage cavern which is now under construction. The probabilistic density functions(P.D.F) were obtained from the investigation of the discontinuity trace map. When the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate into the cavern was below the acceptable value to maintain the hydraulic containment. But when the isotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate was above the acceptable value.

• Korean Linguistics
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• v.79
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• pp.63-89
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• 2018

This study explores contrastive relation among voiced bilabial fricative [${\ss}$], voiceless bilabial stop [p] and glide [w] in Middle Korean consonant system based on Probabilistic Model. Preceding researches about voiced bilabial fricative [${\ss}$] proposed two influential arguments. One is voiced bilabial fricative [${\ss}$] was an independent phoneme, the other is it was not an independent phoneme but an allophone of voiceless bilabial stop [p] in Middle Korean. This study applies Probabilistic Phonological Relationship Model (PPRM) for solving the problem of dichotomy about contrastive and allophonic relations. The analysis result of the contrastive entropy by PPRM suggests that voiced bilabial fricative [${\ss}$] was just an allophone of voiceless bilabial stop [p] or glide [w] in Middle Korean. Comparing the entropies between [p] and other consonants with the entropies between [${\ss}$] and other consonants, a continuum defined in terms of entropy reveals that [${\ss}$] in Middle Korean was more allophonic than phonemic.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.75-81
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• 2019

This study presents an automatic collision avoidance algorithm for autonomous navigation of unmanned surface vessels. The performance of the collision avoidance algorithm is heavily dependent on the estimation quality of the course and speed of traffic ships because collision avoidance maneuvers should be determined based on the predicted motions of the traffic ships and their trajectory uncertainties. In this study, the collision avoidance algorithm is implemented based on the Probabilistic Velocity Obstacle (PVO) approach considering the maritime collision regulations (COLREGs). In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm, an extensive set of simulations was conducted and the results are discussed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.155-165
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• 2014

Multiple thermal energy storage (TES) caverns can be used for storing thermal energy on a large scale and for a high-aspect-ratio heat storage design to provide good thermal performance. It may also be necessary to consider the use of multiple caverns with a reduced length when a single, long tunnel-shaped cavern is not suitable for connection to aboveground heat production and injection equipments. When using multiple TES caverns, the separation distance between the caverns is one of the significant factors that should be considered in the design of storage space, and the optimal separation distance should be determined based on a quantitative stability criterion. In this paper, we described a numerical approach for determining the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns for large-scale TES utilization. For reliable stability evaluation of multiple caverns, we employed a probabilistic method which can quantitatively take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by probability distributions, unlike conventional deterministic approaches. The present approach was applied to the design of a conceptual TES model to store hot water for district heating. The probabilistic stability results of this application demonstrated that the approach in our work can be effectively used as a decision-making tool to determine the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns. In addition, the probabilistic results were compared to those obtained through a deterministic analysis, and the comparison results suggested that care should taken in selecting the acceptable level of stability when using deterministic approaches.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 2019

Due to the difficulties in forecasting the intensity and the source location of tsunami the countermeasures prepared based on the deterministic approach fail to work properly. Thus, there is an increasing demand of the tsunami hazard analyses that consider the uncertainties of tsunami behavior in probabilistic approach. In this paper a fundamental study is conducted to perform the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) for the tsunamis that caused the disaster to the east coast of Korea. A logic tree approach is employed to consider the uncertainties of the initial free surface displacement and the tsunami height distribution along the coast. The branches of the logic tree are constructed by reflecting characteristics of tsunamis that have attacked the east coast of Korea. The computational time is nonlinearly increasing if the number of branches increases in the process of extracting the fractile curves. Thus, an improved method valid even for the case of a huge number of branches is proposed to save the computational time. The performance of the discrete weight distribution method proposed first in this study is compared with those of the conventional sorting method and the Monte Carlo method. The present method is comparable to the conventional methods in its accuracy, and is efficient in the sense of computational time when compared with the conventional sorting method. The Monte Carlo method, however, is more efficient than the other two methods if the number of branches and the number of fault segments increase significantly.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.2309-2315
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• 2013

VANET(Vehicular Ad-hoc Network) is getting attention as an application to improve driver safety through inter-vehicle communication. For activation of VANET, privacy-preserving mutual authentication has to be guaranteed. In previous works, authors proposed various group-based authentication protocols. However, risks on ID exposure due to repeated use of group key and RSU(Road Side Unit) DoS attack were not considered. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach for robust anonymous authentication protocol. We evaluated our proposed method in a sets of criteria in VANET and verified it is an efficient solution for enhancing privacy.