• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.473-480
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2017

After Kyeongju earthquake occurred in September 12, 2016, the seismic safety of nuclear power plants became important issue in our country. The seismic safety of nuclear power plant against beyond design basis earthquake became very important to secure the public safety. In this paper, the current status of the seismic safety assessment methodology is reviewed and some aspects for the reliability improvement of the seismic safety assessment results are proposed. Seismic margin analysis and probabilistic seismic safety assessment have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of a nuclear power pant. The basic procedure and the related issues and proposals for the probabilistic seismic safety assessment are investigated.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.591-592
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• 2005

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.101-108
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• 2019

The seismic safety of nuclear power plants has always been emphasized by the effects of accidents. In general, the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plants carries out a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. The current probabilistic safety assessment assumes that damage to the structure, system, and components (SSCs) occurs independently to each other or perfect dependently to each other. In case of earthquake events, the failure event occurs with the correlation due to the correlation between the seismic response of the SSCs and the seismic performance of the SSCs. In this study, the EEMS (External Event Mensuration System) code is developed which can perform the seismic probabilistic safety assessment considering correlation. The developed code is verified by comparing with the multiplier n, which is for calculating the joint probability of failure, which is proposed by Mankamo. It is analyzed the changes in seismic fragility curves and seismic risks with correlation. As a result, it was confirmed that the seismic fragility curves and seismic risk change according to the failure correlation coefficient. This means that it is important to select an appropriate failure correlation coefficient in order to perform a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. And also, it was confirmed that carrying out the seismic probabilistic safety assessment in consideration of the seismic correlation provides more realistic results, rather than providing conservative or non-conservative results comparing with that damage to the SSCs occurs independently.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.83-86
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• 1998

The results from the Individual Plant Examination of External Event of Yonggwyang nuclear power plants, unit 3 & 4, in Korea have shown that the high degree of diversities of the experts' opinions on seismicity and attenuation models is su, pp.sed to be generic cause of uncertainty of APEs(annual exceedance probability) in the PAHA(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). This study investigated the sensitivity of the focal depth, which is one of the most uncertain seismicity parameters in Korea, Significant differences in resultant values of annual exceedance probabilities and much more symmetrical shape of the resultant PDFs(probability density functions), in case of consideration of focal depth, are found. These two results suggest that, even for the same seismic input data set including the seismicity models and ground motion attenuation models, to consider focal depth additionally for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis evaluation makes significant influence on the distributions of uncertainties and probabilities of exceedance per year for the whole ranges of seismic hazard levels. These facts suggest that it is necessary to derive focal depth parameter more effectively from the historical and instrumental documents on earthquake phenomena in Koran Peninsula for the future study of PSHA.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.57-63
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• 2011

In this study, a ground motion response spectrum for the seismic risk assessment of low and intermediate level radioactive waste repositories was developed. For the development of the ground motion response spectrum, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed. Through the performance of a PSHA, a seismic hazard curve which was based on a seismic bed rock was developed. A uniform hazard spectrum was determined by using a developed seismic hazard curve. Artificial seismic motions were developed based on the uniform hazard spectrum. A seismic response analysis was performed on the developed artificial seismic motion. Finally, an evaluation response spectrum for the seismic risk assessment analysis of low and intermediate level radioactive waste repositories was developed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.323-335
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• 2017

A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.605-616
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• 2018

In this paper, an extended Cloud analysis method is developed for seismic fragility assessment of existing highway bridges in the southeast Queensland region. This method extends the original Cloud analysis dataset by performing scaled Cloud analyses. The original and scaled Cloud datasets are then paired to generate seismic fragility curves. The seismic hazard in this region is critically reviewed, and the ground motion records are selected for the time-history analysis based on various record selection criteria. A parametric highway bridge model is developed in the OpenSees analysis software, and a sampling technique is employed to quantify the uncertainties of highway bridges ubiquitous in this region. Technical recommendations are also given for the seismic performance evaluation of highway bridges in such low-to-moderate seismic zones. Finally, a probabilistic fragility study is conducted by performing a total of 8000 time-history analyses and representative bridge fragility curves are generated. It is illustrated that the seismic fragility curves generated by the proposed extended Cloud analysis method are in close agreement with those which are obtained by the rigorous incremental dynamic analysis method. Also, it reveals that more than 50% of highway bridges existing in southeast Queensland will be damaged subject to a peak ground acceleration of 0.14 g.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.5C
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types for infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard analyses. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, it is very difficult to handle a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity by deterministic approach, and the probabilistic approaches are known as more promising. Two types of probabilistic approaches are introduced including (1) the reliability analysis (to obtain probability of failure) for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk analysis of liquefaction for a specific soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using the new risk analysis method.