• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1991년도 하계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.411-416
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• 1991

Operation simulation is a key factor to evaluate investment and operation in a power utility. Probabilistic production simulation is of major concern. With pumped-storage plant, production simulation is not an easy task, because its economy should fully be exploited. In addition, usual operation interval is a week rather than a day. Most existing models are based on approximate production simulation such as adopting simple priority orders of generations. This study is based on the more elaborate model developed by authors. Further, a policy of weekly coordination is established based on the Maximum Principle. Chronological load curve instead of usual load duration curve is used and the accuracy in simulation is enhahced. Resulting economics are compared. Deviation between these two toad curve is shown.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제29권8호
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• pp.1102-1108
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• 2005

The integrity of nuclear piping systems has to be maintained sufficiently all the times during operation. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including fracture mechanics analysis, etc, are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approach even though there are lots of uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for piping system evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to develop a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation technique and to estimate the damage probability of wall-thinned pipes in secondary systems. The probabilistic assessment program consists of three evaluation modules which are first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method. The developed program has been applied to evaluate damage probabilities of wall-thinned pipes subjected to internal pressure, global bending moment and combined loading. The sensitivity analysis results as well as prototypal evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제32권10호
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• pp.360-366
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• 1983

In this paper, operation cost of the system is calculated by the probabilistic simulation method. And it is proved that only 20 iterative simulations are enough to get the result obtain by the Monte Carlo simulation method which requires more than 1000 iterative simulations. In the probabilistic simulation method we use the ranking of line contingency which is derived from the line countingency selection algorithm proposed in (2). In using this method the nature of the sparsity of the power system is used.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 1992

Proper resource allocation is also a very important topic in power system problems, especially in operation and planning. One such is optimal maintenance problem in operation and planning. Least cost and highest reliability should be the subjects to be pursued. A probabilistic operation simulation model developed recently by authors is applied to the proboem of optimal maintenance scheduling. Three different methods are compared, marginal maintenance cost, levelized risk and maintenance space. The method by the marginal maintenance costs shows the least cost, the highest reliability and the highest maintenance outage rates. This latter characteristics may considerably influence the results of genetation planning, because the usual maintenance outages obtained from the other methods have shown to be lower.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권10호
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• pp.3247-3255
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• 2021

As Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are thoroughly conducted for the Site Operating States (SOSs) for a single unit, multi-unit Probabilistic Safety Assessments (MUPSAs) are ongoing worldwide to address new technical challenges or issues. In South Korea, the determination of the site operating states for a single site requires a logical approach with reasonable assumptions due to the fact that there are 4-8 operating units for each site. This paper suggests a simulation model that gives a reasonable expectation of the site operation states using the Monte-Carlo method as a stochastic approach and deterministic aspects such as operational policies. Statistical hypothesis tests were conducted so that the reliance of the simulation results can be guaranteed. In this study, 7 units of the Kori site were analysed as a case study. The result shows that the fraction of full power for all 7 units is nearly 0.45. For situations when more than two units are not in operation, the highest fraction combination was obtained for Plant Operation State (POS) 8, which is the stage of inspection and repairment. By entering various site operation scenarios, the simulation model can be used for the analysis of other site operation states.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.129-136
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• 2006

This paper proposes a probabilistic evaluation for the transient stability of electrical power systems incorporating FACTS devices. The uncertainties of the fault location and relay operation time play important keys in power system instability evaluation. The TCSC and SVC are employed for the reduction of system instability probability. This method is demonstrated by the WSCC test system and the results are compared with and without FACTS by means of Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.246-247
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• 2019

This study was conducted to provide useful information to enable planned repair and cost planning during the operation and maintenance phase of aged multi-family housing. For this purpose, The concept of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis considering the risk factors of the aged multi-family housing is presented in the following six steps. 1. Risk factor investigation and analysis 2. Classification and deriving of maintenance cost 3. Investigation and deriving cost maintenance cost of old apartment house 4. Analysis of expert questionnaire 5. Analysis of Monte -Carlo simulation 6. Probabilistic maintenance cost Deriving the result. This study has limitations that need to be verified by applying actual data.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제50권9호
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• pp.431-439
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• 2001

This Paper illustrates a new numerical analysis method using a nodal effective load model for nodal probabilistic production cost simulation of the load point in a composite power system. The new effective load model includes capacities and uncertainties of generators as well as transmission lines. The CMELDC(composite power system effective load duration curve) based on the new effective load model at HLll(Hierarchical Level H) has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. It is expected that the new model for the CMELDC proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLll will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of MRBTS(Modified Roy Billinton Test System).

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.11-20
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• 2014

Many classification studies for the community of densely-connected nodes are limited to the comprehensive analysis for detecting the communities in probabilistic networks with nodes and edge of the probabilistic distribution because of the difficulties of the probabilistic operation. This study aims to use convolution method for operating nodes and edge of probabilistic distribution. For the probabilistic hierarchy network with nodes and edges of the probabilistic distribution, the model of this study detects the communities of nodes to make the new probabilistic distribution with two distribution. The results of our model was verified through comparing with Monte-carlo Simulation and other community-detecting methods.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.112-115
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• 2001

This paper illustrates a new nodal effective load model for nodal probabilistic production cost simulation of the load point in a composite power system. The new effective load model includes capacities and uncertainties of generators as well as transmission lines. The CMELDC based on the new effective load model at HLII has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtain from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. It is expected that the new model for the CMELDC proposed. In this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLII will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of a test system.