• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권5C호
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

지반 액상화는 대표적인 지진 피해의 한 형태로 이 연구에서는 이러한 지반 액상화 가능성 평가를 위한 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였다. 일정한 사용기간 동안의 지진에 의한 액상화 발생확률을 구하기 위하여 액상화 취약도와 지진재해도를 결합하여 액상화 위험도를 산정할 수 있도록 하였다. 현재 국내에서는 결정론적인 방법이 많이 이용되고 있으나, 이러한 방법은 지반 물성치에 포함되어 있는 많은 불확실성을 합리적으로 다루기 어려운 단점이 있다. 두 가지 형태의 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였는데, 첫번째는 설계지진에 대한 확률적 신뢰도 해석 방법이고, 두번째는 주어진 지반조건에 대하여 일정한 사용기간 동안 액상화가 발생할 수 있는 가능성을 평가한 위험도 해석 방법이다. 기존의 결정론적 방법과 확률적 방법에 의하여 매립지반의 액상화를 평가하였으며, 위험도 해석에 의한 액상화 가능성 평가기법을 지속적으로 적용하고, 설계기준이 제시된다면 보다 합리적이고, 정량적인 지반 액상화 가능성 평가기법이 될 수 있음을 검증하였다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.681-697
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• 2015

Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.113-119
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• 2014

LCC 분석은 건축물의 설계단계 뿐만 아니라 유지관리 단계에서의 보수 보강 또는 교체에 대한 최적 의사결정의 도구로서 이론적으로나 실무적으로 각광을 받고 있는 분석 방법이다. 이는 초기 투자비용의 효율성을 극대화 하고 유지관리를 통한 구조물 사용성의 효율적 증대를 극대화하는 노력의 일환으로 최근 건축물의 설계 및 유지관리 시 LCC 분석효과의 실질적인 적용이 요구되어 지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 일반적인 분석기법에 그치고 있는 기존 LCC 연구를 생애위험도를 고려한 LCC분석을 통해 설계단계 최적 의사결정을 위한 새로운 분석 방법론을 도출하였다.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 1999

Spectral fatigue damage calculations has been performed on four ships in order to assess the effect that the probabilistic modeling of sea states has on the estimated fatigue life. The damage estimation method is based on the Miner- Palmgren fatigue damage formulation and a spectral approach is used to determine the necessary variances of the stress processes. Both the horizontal and vertical hull girder bending induced stress process together with the local water pressure induced stress process is taken into account. The wave scatter diagrams are applied in the calculations and their fatigue severity is assessed by analyzing the results obtained with the ten scatter diagrams and the four ships. All four ships are analyzed both in full load and ballast conditions and while traveling at both full and reduced speed. It is found that the fatigue severity of a wave scatter diagram is dependent on several parameters, some of these being the extreme wave hight extrapolated from the scatter diagram and the mean zero up-crossing period in conjunction with the ship length . Based on these three parameters and expression is derived in order to calculate one single number describing the fatigue severity of a scatter diagram with respect to a certain ship.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.275-288
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• 2023

Based on the crucial role of high-speed railway bridges (HSRBs) in the safety of high-speed railway operations, it is an important approach to mitigate earthquake hazards by proceeding with seismic risk assessments in their whole life. Bridge seismic risk assessment, which usually evaluates the seismic performance of bridges from a probabilistic perspective, provides technical support for bridge risk management. The seismic performance of bridges is greatly affected by the degradation of material properties, therefore, material damage plays a nonnegligible role in the seismic risk assessment of the bridge. The effect of material damage is not considered in most current studies on seismic risk analysis of bridges, nevertheless. To fill the gap in this area, in this paper, a nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis has been carried out by establishing OpenSees finite element model, and a seismic vulnerability analysis is carried out based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method. On this basis, combined with the site risk analysis, the time-dependent seismic risk analysis of an offshore three-span HSRB in the whole life cycle has been conducted. The results showed that the seismic risk probabilities of both components and system of the bridge increase with the service time, and their seismic risk probabilities increase significantly in the last service period due to the degradation of the material strength, which demonstrates that the impact of durability damage should be considered when evaluating the seismic performance of bridges in the design and service period.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.799-813
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• 2020

Fatigue cracks of rib-to-deck (RD) joints have been frequently observed in the orthotropic steel decks (OSD) using conventional U-ribs (CU). Thickened edge U-rib (TEU) is proposed to enhance the fatigue strength of RD joints, and its effectiveness has been proved through fatigue tests. In-depth full-scale tests are further carried out to investigate both the fatigue strength and fractography of RD joints. Based on the test result, the mean fatigue strength of TEU specimens is 21% and 17% higher than that of CU specimens in terms of nominal and hot spot stress, respectively. Meanwhile, the development of fatigue cracks has been measured using the strain gauges installed along the welded joint. It is found that such the crack remains almost in semi-elliptical shape during the initiation and propagation. For the further application of TEUs, the design curve under the specific survival rate is required for the RD joints using TEUs. Since the fatigue strength of welded joints is highly scattered, the design curves derived by using the limited test data only are not reliable enough to be used as the reference. On this ground, an experiment-numerical hybrid approach is employed. Basing on the fatigue test, a probabilistic assessment model has been established to predict the fatigue strength of RD joints. In the model, the randomness in material properties, initial flaws and local geometries has been taken into consideration. The multiple-site initiation and coalescence of fatigue cracks are also considered to improve the accuracy. Validation of the model has been rigorously conducted using the test data. By extending the validated model, large-scale databases of fatigue life could be generated in a short period. Through the regression analysis on the generated database, design curves of the RD joint have been derived under the 95% survival rate. As the result, FAT 85 and FAT 110 curves with the power index m of 2.89 are recommended in the fatigue evaluation on the RD joint using TEUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress respectively. Meanwhile, FAT 70 and FAT 90 curves with m of 2.92 are suggested in the evaluation on the RD joint using CUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress, respectively.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.169-184
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• 2022

The importance of seismicity in developing countries and the strengthening of buildings is a topic of major importance. Therefore, the study of several solutions with the development of new technologies is of great importance to investigate the damage on retrofitted structures by using probabilistic methods. The Federal Emergency Management Agency considers three types of performance levels by considering different scenarios, intensity and duration. The selection and scaling of ground motions mainly depends on the aim of the study. Intensity-based assessments are the most common and compute the response of buildings for a specified seismic intensity. Assessments based on scenarios estimate the response of buildings to different earthquake scenarios. A risk-based assessment is considered as one of the most effective. This research represents a practical method for developing countries where exists many active faults, tall buildings and lack of good implementable approaches. Therefore, to achieve the main goal, two high-rise steel buildings have been modeled and assessed. The contribution of buckling-restrained braces in the elastic design of both buildings is firstly verified. In the nonlinear static range, both buildings presented repairable damage at the central top part and some life safety hinges at the bottom. The nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis was applied by 15 representative/scaled accelerograms to obtain levels of performance and fragility curves. The results shown that by using probabilistic methods, it is possible to estimate the probability of collapse of retrofitted buildings by buckling-restrained braces and tuned mass dampers, which are practical retrofitting options to protect existing structures against earthquakes.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

In general, fatigue analysis is performed by using deterministic model to estimate the optimal parameters. However, the deterministic model is difficult to clearly describe the physical phenomena of fatigue failure that contains many uncertainty factors. With regard to this, efforts have been made in this research to compare with the deterministic model and the stochastic models. Firstly, One deterministic S-N curve was derived from ordinary least squares technique and two P-S-N curves were estimated through Bayesian-linear regression model and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Secondly, the distribution of Long-term fatigue damage and fatigue life were predicted by using the parameters obtained from the three methodologies and the long-term stress distribution.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.437-447
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• 2018

Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.