• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2006.04a
• /
• pp.473-480
• /
• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
• /
• v.57 no.1
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2020

In general, an inspection schedule is established based on the long-term fatigue life during the design stage. However, in the design stage, it is difficult to clearly identify the uncertainty factors affecting long-term fatigue life. In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life assessment was conducted in accordance with the methodology of DNV-GL. Firstly, The initial crack distribution estimated through the initial crack propagation analysis was updated by reflecting the results of crack inspection. Secondly, the updated crack distribution was compared with the initial crack distribution, and the probability of failure was updated with the effect of crack inspection.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.19 no.3
• /
• pp.305-313
• /
• 2017

A robust finite element based reinforced concrete bridge deck corrosion initiation model is applied for time-dependent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The model is focused on uncertainties in the governing parameters that include variation of high performance concrete (HPC) diffusion coefficients, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration, holidays in reinforcements, coatings and critical chloride threshold level in several steel reinforcements. The corrosion initiation risk is expressed in the form of probability over intended life span of the bridge deck. Conducted study shows the time-dependent sensitivity analysis to evaluate the significance of governing parameters on chloride ingress rate, various steel reinforcement protection and the corrosion initiation likelihood. Results from this probabilistic analysis provide better insight into the effect of input parameters variation on the estimate of the corrosion initiation risk for the design of concrete structures in harsh chloride environments.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.83 no.2
• /
• pp.179-193
• /
• 2022

The shear behaviour of reinforced concrete members has been studied over the past decades by various researchers, and it can be simulated by analysing shear panel elements which has been regarded as a basic element of reinforced concrete members subjected to in-plane biaxial stresses. Despite various experimental studies on shear panel element which have been conducted so far, there are still a lot of uncertainties related to what influencing factors govern the shear behaviour and affect failure mechanism in reinforced concrete members. To identify the uncertainties, a finite element analysis can be used, which enables to investigate the impact of specific variables such as the reinforcement ratio, the shear retention factor, and the material characteristics including aggregate interlock, tension stiffening, compressive softening, and shear behaviour at the crack surface. In this study, a non-linear probabilistic analysis was conducted on reinforced concrete panels using a finite element method optimized for reinforced concrete members and advanced sampling techniques so that probabilistic analysis can be performed effectively. Consequently, this study figures out what analysis methodology and input parameters have the most influence on shear behaviour of reinforced concrete panels.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.81 no.4
• /
• pp.429-441
• /
• 2022

A probabilistic assessment of the seismic-excited buildings with a multiple-tuned-mass-damper (MTMD) system is carried out in the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, MTMD system, and the stochastic model of the seismic excitations. A free search optimization procedure of the individual mass, stiffness and, damping parameters of the MTMD system based on the snap-drift cuckoo search (SDCS) optimization algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of the MTMD system. Considering a 10-story structure in three cases equipped with single tuned mass damper (STMS), 5-TMD and 10-TMD, sensitivity analyses are carried out using Sobol' indices based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Considering different seismic performance levels, the reliability analyses are done using MCS and kriging-based MCS methods. The results show the maximum structural responses are more affected by changes in the PGA and the stiffness coefficients of the structural floors and TMDs. The results indicate the kriging-based MCS method can estimate the accurate amount of failure probability by spending less time than the MCS. The results also show the MTMD gives a significant reduction in the structural failure probability. The effect of the MTMD on the reduction of the failure probability is remarkable in the performance levels of life safety and collapse prevention. The maximum drift of floors may be reduced for the nominal structural system by increasing the TMDs, however, the complexity of the MTMD model and increasing its corresponding uncertainty sources can be caused a slight increase in the failure probability of the structure.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2022

Several aspects influence corrosive processes in reinforced concrete (RC) structures such as environmental conditions, structural geometry and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate description of the corrosive phenomena. Besides, the definition of limit states in the reliability assessment requires a proper mechanical model. In this context, this study proposes a straightforward methodology for the mechanical-probabilistic modelling of RC structures subjected to reinforcements' corrosion. An improved damage approach is proposed to define the limit states for the probabilistic modelling, considering three main degradation phenomena: concrete cracking, rebar yielding and rebar corrosion caused either by chloride or carbonation mechanisms. The stochastic analysis is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation method due to the computational efficiency of the Lumped Damage Model for Corrosion (LDMC). The proposed mechanical-probabilistic methodology is implemented in a computational framework and applied to the analysis of a simply supported RC beam and a 2D RC frame. Curves illustrate the probability of failure evolution over a service life of 50 years. Moreover, the proposed model allows drawing the probability of failure map and then identifying the critical failure path for progressive collapse analysis. Collapse path changes caused by the corrosion phenomena are observed.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2004.04a
• /
• pp.309-316
• /
• 2004

A probabilistic structural integrity assessment is performed for a reactor pressure vessel under PTS(Pressurized Thermal Shock). A semi-elliptical finite axial crack is assumed to he in the beltline region(either base metal or weld meta)1 of the reactor vessel inside surface. The selected random variables are initial crack depth, neutron fluence on the vessel inside surface, copper, nickel, and phosphorus content of the vessel material, and RT/sub NDT/. The probabilities of crack initiation or vessel failure where the crack is propagated through vessel wall are calculated. The probabilities obtained with random crack size are compared to these obtained with deterministic us. Since the failure function cannot to explicitly by selected by selected random variables, Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to perform probabilistic analysis The influence of the amount of neutron fluence is also examined to assess the structural reliability for vessel life time.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.143-147
• /
• 2010

Chronic exposure to Arsenic (As) causes significant human health effects including various cancers. Total As concentrations from 300 polished rice samples cultivated near the mining areas in Korea were analyzed to estimate a probabilistic assessment of human health risk from As-contaminated rice. The mean of total As concentrations in rice was 0.09 mg/kg and lognormal distribution model was set for total As concentrations. Human health risk for As in rice was estimated using gender-specific rice consumption data and average daily dose (ADD). While cancer risk (CR) and hazard quotient (HQ) were calculated using oral cancer slope factor (OCSF) and Reference dose (RfD) suggested by the U.S. EPA. Mean of CR posed by total As was 2.16 (for male) and 1.83 (for female) per 10,000. The HQ for general population from rice cultivated near the mining areas in Korea was below 1 as the $50^{th}$ percentile of general population. However, less than 10% of general population consuming rice cultivated near the mining areas would exceed 1.0. This result is similar with those from each gender-specific group.

• Journal of IKEEE
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.236-243
• /
• 2010

Power quality mitigation devices play an important role in lots of industrial segments. Although there were many devices available in the market, the selection of an appropriate device specially for voltage sags and interruptions mitigation has been a challenge in the utility and customer for several years. It usually depends on technical and economic characteristics of the device. Nevertheless, most mitigation method is selected by rule of thumb or empirical method. In this paper, the life cycle cost analysis for the probabilistic risk assesment of voltage sag mitigation method is performed using either the deterministic or probabilistic approach. The difference between a deterministic and a probabilistic cost analysis approach is illustrated with five different case studies. This paper not only provides a comparison of life cycle costing of various devices but it also indirectly shows the possible savings due to the mitigation of voltage sags in the form of a project balance chart.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
• /
• v.23 no.6
• /
• pp.61-66
• /
• 2005

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.